Public Policy Polling has been diligently including some third parties in their polling recently. In Arizona, Public Policy Polling ran a general election poll and included Libertarian Party nominee and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who received 9%.
One thing that could make the race more competitive in Arizona, perhaps more so than other states, is Gary Johnson’s presence on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate. He pulls 9% in Arizona and he takes a lot more support away from Romney than he does Obama, narrowing Romney’s lead in the state to 45-41. History suggests it’s quite unlikely Johnson would really pull 9% in the end but it shows how many voters are unhappy with their main choices in this race.
Johnson’s Favorables vs. Unfavorables were 7/14%. 80% of those polled about his favorables were not sure. His favorability rating amongst Democrats was11%, while it was only 4% amongst Republicans, and 5% amongst Independents. His highest favorables were amongst Hispanics–at 13%, versus 5% for white and 8% for others.
Doing best amongst Hispanics, Liberals, and Democrats. Not exactly the standard fare for Libertarian polling.
Good for Johnson.
If anyone is interested, there is a poll on the front page of the PPP website. I’d like for people to click “Maine”, so we can get polling numbers on Angus King for Senate.
yes, and yet GJ “takes” a few more points from Romney than Obama. Discounting most of this, but 9% is nice….
I wonder what would happen if they asked about a four-way race involving Obama, Romney, Johnson, and Jill Stein. The Green Party has already qualified for ballot access for its presidential ticket in AZ, too.
Joshua, I have pressed several pollsters to include Goode, Johnson, and Stein on their ballots–since those are the three candidates who will be on enough ballots to actually have an effect on national polling. So far, Goode has not been included in any polling except Virginia (PPP), Johnson has been included in a national poll (PPP) and a number of state polls by PPP (Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arizona, North Carolina), and Jill Stein has been included in none.
I suspect a national poll like this would show more realistic numbers—1-3% or N/A for the 3 major-minors and the rest for the duopoly.
Not to demean the impressive numbers by Governor Johnson, but something tells me that in a race between Obama, Romney, and Gus Hall, that ole Gus would poll a similar share at this point. Johnson is an anti big 2 choice, and as the only one in the poll, gets a nice amount of poll support.
In 2004, I was asked if I wanted Bush-Kerry-Badnarik in Arizona. I went with Badnarik, although I ended up writing in Cobb when it came time to vote.
1 1/2 cents worth–I think Arizona’s higher numbers may reflect the fact that Arizona shares some media markets with New Mexico and Johnson may in fact have some name recognition there.
th, I’d be surprised if NM media bleeds into AZ much. Most of the AZ pop is south and west, around Phoenix, away from NM. Sure, Alb. media probably gets picked up in some small towns in AZ, but that doesn’t seem to account for 9%. Yet, it does seem that a bordering state’s governor might have some rep next door.
@1 “Doing best amongst Hispanics, Liberals, and Democrats. Not exactly the standard fare for Libertarian polling. ..”
Libertarians do as well with Dems as Greens and Reps and very strongly with the first two groups, along with women and minorities.This is old news.
My experience is that the USLP partyarchy is dominated by conservatoid good old boys who seem to be focused on keeping people out of the LP and explaining how it must give up its principles (or confusing them with some sort of right-wing anarchism).
For years I fought these idiots who would make snarky remarks at meetings to women and minorities, or attack people from non-right- wing backgrounds. We saw people try and oust them at the last Convention.
These guys aren’t the movement, they just want people to think they are.
I’m nearly certain now – GJ will win the election with 75% of the vote in November.
Pingback: Ballot Access News » Blog Archive » Gary Johnson Included in Public Policy Poll for Arizona
Time to start post those free convention signs around Phoenix? I wonder how long they would stay up?
What does Ernie Hancock think of the Johnson campaign?
@1 Trent
My prediction: Angus King will win the Senate in Maine.
Easily.
Phoenix workshop was the nucleus of the r3vo7ution
I have to say that this is good news for Gary Johnson but let’s hope that his campaign will actually do something with these numbers. Johnson is known to the most political-junkies in America and right now the Democrats & GOP are running undesirable tickets for President among disenchanted independent voters.
At the end of the day, I’m hoping the Obama & Romney campaigns make big gaffes that people will get outraged to look for another solution, even if it just gets Gary & Jim in the National Debates, Libertarian ideals need to be spread.
@13, I agree. But I like seeing poll numbers.
I wish Johnson’s campaign were drawing more attention to these numbers.
@ 8: My experience is that the USLP partyarchy is dominated by conservatoid good old boys who seem to be focused on keeping people out of the LP
OTOH, Barr/Root conservatoids accuse radicals of wanting to keep people out of the LP.
It seems every faction accuses other factions of not wanting to grow the party.
@12
I listened to a recent Ernest Hancock DYI broadcast and he was irked that Gary Johnson was a Fair Tax supporter as well as a believer in Humanitarian Military efforts.
I think he made these comments during the Geoff Neale (new LP chair) 1 hour interview:
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Media/111940-2012-05-18-05-18-12-geoff-neale-ed-foster-david-fitzgerald-video.htm
Gary Johnson is not a true Libertarian. I don’t think there’s much debate on that. As I see it, though, he has room to grow and is clearly the better option, hands down, between Obamney and Obamney.
People who can overlook Ron Paul’s stands on several social issues, saying he would vote for the so-called fair tax if it came up for a vote in Congress, etc., should have no problem getting as enthusiastic about Johnson as they have about Paul. The other choices left in the election are abysmal, and Paul will not be on the November ballot.
Impressive % but he has gotta do something with it. BB was at 6% in some polls and was a total disaster. Hopefully GJ can do way better this time around.
Is 9% significantly different than the typical 3-way spring poll? What’s the margin of error?
Paulie–it’s a better performance, yes. Remember that on all of PPP’s polls there is an “others” option. You’ll have to check the polling spreadsheet for MoE, as I don’t have time right now.
I’ve been told true Libertarians are opposed to voting, much less run for Office.
Talking about GJ and opposing genocide:
Some are opposed to Gary Johnsons policy on defending individuals rights to life, liberty etc? Doesn’t the LP Preamble and by-laws state that “libertarians” will defend theses rights of the individual?
Paul is a consistent non-interventionist and does not make the issues where I most disagree with him (abortion and immigration, though I am not sure how much we really disagree on immigration at this point) central planks of his campaign. Johnson has vowed to make the Fair Tax one of the cores of his campaign pitch. Since I regard the Fair Tax as WORSE than the current system for a variety of reasons I cannot get behind someone who is supposedly going to push it as a primary position of his candidacy.
Having said that I wish Johnson well. I have serious doubts that he will even approach 2000 Nader numbers in any states, but with smart, tactical framing it’s not impossible.
But how much better? 5, 6 and 7 seems fairly typical of such polls right now, whether for Johnson, Goode, or whomever, Barr in 2008, etc. Even when a generic unnamed “other” option is included.
If you don’t capitalize libertarian, yes, many libertarians take that position.
Opposing the idea that the US government is the way to solve such problems, or the idea that it can attempt to do so without creating worse ones, isn’t the same as saying we support genocide (or don’t oppose it). That is a red herring to say the least.
More consistent than Johnson, but he did vote for the original authorization of force in Afghanistan, among other things.
Not entirely true. They are mentioned prominently in the official campaign’s TV ads, on slim jims, and so on.
Judging by most of his TV appearances, blog posts, twitter feed, and other measures I have seen, he has not done that.
So do I. However, the options on most people’s ballots will be Obama, Romney, Johnson, Goode, Stein, and Johnson is easily the best of those five overall. In some significant ways he’s even better than Ron Paul. He’s much better than Barr, and certainly has a more impressive background in conventional terms than past LP presidential nominees. His media reach is certainly better than what I’ve seen from such candidates before at this stage. He emphasizes civil liberties a great deal. So the glass is clearly more than half full for me.
Johnson’s support of the Fair Tax is clearly a strategic mistake:
It alienates some LP members and other libertarians, who comprise his natural constituency, and base for votes, volunteers and donors.
It actually reduces his appeal to the general public that could be enticed by a generic reference to repealing of the income tax and IRS and replacing all taxes with a consumption tax of SOME kind of which the Fair Tax is only one example.
Why alienate supporters and potential supporters with this continued aggravating and unnecessary aliegence to a single tax plan that has not become a mass movement and is not the likely final plan even if we were able to make a transition to a consumption tax that eschews all others?
It presupposes that his endorsement of this single plan will somehow bring in the members of that movement to his side. This, however, ignores that fact that for many of the Fair Tax supporters, there is wide disagreement on other issues and disinterest in a 3rd party that still precludes support for Johnson. Thus, his alienation of his natural constiuency doesn’t bring enough new support to replace the lost base.
Finally, adopting and advocating for the Fair Tax may actually bring less interest from Fair Tax supporters. Having won Johnson easily they lose interest. Better to promote a general and non-specific consumption tax which would pique their interest and attract them to participate and encourage his campaign in order to win him over. People often don’t want things that come too easily.
@27
I have to disagree with nearly all the assumptions made here.
Gary Johnson has clearly taken a position that plainly appeals to current Fair Tax supporters. There is no time available (and never was IMO) for Johnson to coyly support a generic federal retail sales tax and then breathlessly announce at some point that he would support the one and only so-called Fair Tax. There are enough people who have stated they would probably vote for implementation of the actual Fair Tax proposal (inc. Ron Paul at one time if the Fair Tax web site and linked youtube video is to be believed).
http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer?pagename=news_presScorecard
As far as FairTax supporters who are unlikely to vote third party I have to say that you are probably correct but the same concept applies to most voters. I would say that given the various hard core Fair Tax supporters I’ve met that they are willing to vote for any candidate that clearly and plainly advocates in its favor than any common disinclination to vote third party.
I continue to dislike the so-called Fair Tax. I think it is a bad idea in general for a Libertarian candidate to support the plan but I am not the guy slogging in its defense as Gary Johnson is. On a positive note he has a thorough understanding of the plan and can answer any question that is thrown his way on it. I think rather few average voters find support or opposition of the Fair Tax to be any sort of make or break issue. I rather think that less than 19% of likely Arizona voters have any strong position on the topic if they even understand the Fair Tax as anything more than a fuzzily understood underwear gnomes plan: Step 1: eliminate income tax, Step 2: add national sales tax (exact rate hazily ignored), Step 3: good stuff happens.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/dd/Gnomes_plan.png
I hope that Johnson gets an opportunity to answer the Fair Tax question and many more between now and November 6th.
@28 The point wasn’t that Johnson should play coy and later change over to the Fair Tax. The point was that he should NEVER endorse the Fair Tax and leave them hoping that he would come all the way and excited that he was close. Once they have him they don’t need to be excited about him anymore.
We’ve already recruited a top organizer from the FairTax movement as a State Director for one state and he HAS been pushing Gov. Johnson heavily. This has translated in to more of it’s supporters coming on board the campaign. They are not likely to become LP members/supporters at large, but without Obomney mentioning it, they want to see the idea spread and feel getting Gov. Johnson on stage with the duopoly is a way to achieve that. They have been active in calling for polling companies to include him and have plans to set up dual GJ/FairTax booths at events.
I think overall his FairTax support will turn out to be a net positive. It also gets people thinking about how complex our current system is to begin with as this is one of the FairTax’s main talking points.
The Fraud tax is a 30 percentage point increase in taxes on your Roth IRas and other savings, money that has already been taxed once.
Pingback: Gary Johnson Polls 9% in Arizona According to PPP | ThirdPartyPolitics.us