New Mexico: Johnson at 13 percent; Pulls Dem Leaning Independents

An article by Rob Nikolewski published by the New Mexico Watchdog and available online at:

http://newmexico.watchdog.org/14929/obama-lead-on-romney-in-nm-down-to-5-points-gary-johnson-at-13/

Shows:

Obama  42%
Romney  38%
Johnson  13%

The author concludes:

“Republicans have worried that a serious Johnson candidacy would hurt Romney more than Obama but . . .  Johnson gets . . . a lot of his support . . .  from . . . Democratic leaning independents.”

42 thoughts on “New Mexico: Johnson at 13 percent; Pulls Dem Leaning Independents

  1. Paulie

    “Republicans have worried that a serious Johnson candidacy would hurt Romney more than Obama but . . . Johnson gets . . . a lot of his support . . . from . . . Democratic leaning independents.”

    Finally someone acknowledges the obvious!

    Awesome.

  2. NewFederalist

    I would think that any thinking neocon Republican (which appears to be MOST of them) would do everything they could to see Johnson on the ballot everywhere talking up ending wars (which Obama did NOT deliver on) and decriminalizing drugs (a progressive issue that Obama has been afraid to address). Johnson should HELP Romney in lots of places. I hate to see Johnson help such a total jerkoff as Romney but that’s just the way it is. Probably the Romney campaign is just too stupid to realize it.

  3. Krzysztof Lesiak

    In the end he won’t have much money and without a place in the debates will probably end up with 2 or 3% of the vote tops. That’s the unfortunate reality. People had high hopes for neocon Bob Barr’s LP bid, but he ended up with a mere 0.4%.

  4. Raymond Agnew

    He should get 10% to 37% If GJ/JG2012 Is in the Debates If Not It Will be 5% to 10% & could go as high as up to 20% If we give enough Money to run Adds With.

  5. Kreskin

    You mean everyone here agrees it will be between 600k and 1 million votes for Johnson in November?

  6. Ben Schattenburg

    Uggggg.

    These polls are SO much less meaningful without Stein and Goode.

  7. Green in Brooklyn

    I would guess that a decent chunk of those 13% would go to the other two if they were polled.

  8. Robert Capozzi

    This poll is the one place where GJ’s name recognition earns him most of the 13%. It’d be nice to break 15% there as he builds his case elsewhere.

  9. zapper

    I agree with GW @18. Johnson is on track for 2% – 3% of the vote.

    However, if we can get a targeted TV ad campaign underway on broadcast major network TV we can push that past 5%.

    If we can manage to be included in the debates, then with the desire of most to replace Obama, and the continued meltdown of Romney, anything is possible.

  10. Richie

    I’m really guarding myself against false hope. Part of me is saying, “In the end, wasted vote syndrome will kick in and Johnson will have the same 400,000 people voting for him who have voted Libertarian for 30 years.” Another part of me is saying, “Maybe, just maybe the two major party candidates are so bad this year, Johnson will hold onto his poll numbers.” One thing I do know for certain is – I was wrong about Johnson originally. I believe he is turning out to be a great candidate. He is definitely NOT Barr.

  11. ATBAFT

    If GJ does no better than Barr, then the LP should seriously contemplate its future role in running presidential candidates who soak up all the money and volunteer efforts from local candidates who can make a difference.

  12. Kyle Kneale

    Barr/Root: 523,433
    Badnarik/Campagna: 397,265
    Browne/Olivier: 384,516

    We’re in it to win it, and we have to play like we’re in it to win it.

    Assuming we get shut out of the debates by the polls I am going to venture GJ/JG will be 50-75% higher than Barr, centered in AZ, UT, NM, and CO obviously.

  13. Melty

    Things may happen about like usual .. … ..or not.
    I don’t think this cycle’s especially usual. I think Whitfield’s prediction above may be right.

  14. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    @ 23, yes, the LP’s presidential vote totals have been increasing since 2000 — but so has the U.S. population. The LP must increase its votes just to stay even.

    Increases in LP vote totals are only meaningful if its rate of increase is greater than that of the U.S. population.

    Also, the 1996 LP results were higher than that in both 2000 and 2004.

    I haven’t done the math, but in terms of percentage of U.S. population was 2008 an improvement over 1996?

  15. Trent Hill

    500 — 900k is what I keep telling myself so I won’t be disappointed.

    But my actual guess is somewhere between 1 and 2 million. I think he appeals to a lot of Ron Paul people.

  16. Melty

    The 2008 percentage was not as high as 1996 was. It was much lower than 1980 was, and I think it was a bit lower than 1988 too.

  17. Melty

    I think so too. Johnson gives Paulistas somebody to vote for, and Gray is a superb running mate. Marijuana’s a wonderful talking point.
    The more Johnson makes “bring home da troops” his main talking point da better.

  18. Kyle Kneale

    @25, yes I understand the U.S. Population as a whole has increased over the past years but I was posting merely as a reference.

    Currently what I predict:
    Conservative Estimate: 800-950k
    Hopeful: 1-2 mill

  19. Tom Blanton

    Does anyone have any ideas on how to attract votes from the other 13%? Sorry, I meant the other 87%.

    That’s easy. Johnson should make a simple promise to the voters, over and over.

    Vote for me, and all your wildest dreams will come true.

    Does anyone know if Jim Gray can dance?

  20. Joe Buchman

    White House Wedding, officiated by Judge Gray; first bachelor President to be married in the White House?

    All on Reality TV — AMERICAN WOULD SO GO FOR THAT!!

    Joe

  21. Richie

    Sadly, Joe, you’re 100% right. We are truly becoming the mind numb society that Ray Bradbury portrayed in Fahrenheit 451 – which I happen to be reading for the first time.

  22. Joe Buchman Post author

    There was a Ray Bradbury session at Freedom Fest — you might want to get an audio copy when they come out.

    Joe

  23. paulie

    @35
    It would make an interesting film. Speaking of which.

    via Adult Video News

    Unfortunately, like many other statesmen of his time, Madison was also a slaveholder on his Virginia plantation. That rightly tarnishes his reputation, but the value of his contributions to free speech is arguably as important as any American who ever lived.

    My modern heroes are of course John Stagliano and Larry Flynt. And so far as I know, neither of them ever held slaves.

    —Max Hardcore, director (aka Paul F. Little/former Federal Inmate No. 44902-112)

    and

    No doubt our country has become more conservative of the last 20 years. What the hell happened to the principle of mind your own fricking business? The concept of personal freedom has been forgotten by many Americans; in their blind eagerness to fight terrorism, many simply stand by as the government steadily chips away the very rights which made our country great.

    —Max Hardcore, director and former Federal Inmate No. 44902-112)

  24. Andy

    “Joe Buchman // Jul 19, 2012 at 5:56 pm

    White House Wedding, officiated by Judge Gray; first bachelor President to be married in the White House?

    All on Reality TV — AMERICAN WOULD SO GO FOR THAT!!

    Joe”

    If this could be made into a reality TV series, and if it could be broadcast on one of the big national TV networks, Gary Johnson would actually stand a decent chance of being elected President.

  25. Wagnerian Opera

    Is this before or after he carries Wes Wagner from Portland to Salem on his back?

  26. Derek

    If the campaign is serious, I’d keep a major eye on trying to win New Mexico. Imagine the Libertarians on Election Night winning more than 5% nationwide and carrying a state or two!

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