Open Thread for August 2016

Josh at Politicon

Here it is, our open thread for the month. This space is for anything you might wish to share that isn’t in another open conversation. If you find an article or a situation you’d like to share with your fellow readers at I P R, here’s the place.

In case anyone needs a reminder of why third/independent political parties are necessary, here are a couple videos for you:

187 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 2016

  1. Thomas Knapp

    William Weld, in an interview apparently recorded at the Democratic National Convention last week and published today:

    You know the five-shot rifle, that’s a standard military rifle. The problem is if you attach a clip to it so it can fire more shells, and if you remove the pin so that it becomes an automatic weapon. And those are independent criminal offenses. That’s when they become essentially a weapon of mass destruction. The problem with handguns is probably even worse than the problem of the AR-15. You shouldn’t have anybody who’s on a terrorist watch list be able to buy any gun at all.

    Two observations:

    1) If you know nothing about guns, you shouldn’t flaunt that ignorance publicly.

    2) If you care nothing about Americans’ due process rights or right to keep and bear arms, you shouldn’t be running for vice-president as a Libertarian.

  2. Jim

    Part of the announcement for Gary Johnson’s new #15for15 money bomb says:

    “In the last two weeks alone, we raised more than $1,000,000 from over 20,000 individual donors.”

    If true, that would mean Johnson has raised more money by the end of July than Badnarick and Barr did for their entire campaigns. Combined.

    And the LNC reports that membership at the end of July is 17,879, which is the largest number of active donors since December, 2005. It was 11,693 at the start of the year.

    And tomorrow I’ll get to read the criticisms of tonight’s CNN town hall, in which Andy and Darcy Richardson once again tell us about the boring and uninspiring Gary Johnson.

    “It’s amazing how uninspiring Johnson comes across.” – Darcy Richardson
    “Johnson and Weld … are boring and uninspiring.” Andy

  3. Andy

    How many of these people are actually libertarian Libertarians, and how many of them are Republicans dressed up as and pretending to be Libertarians?

  4. steve m

    Chicago Tribune Editorial Calls for including Gary Johnson in the Debates and that the Polling firms treat the race as a three way race.

    “Johnson, in other words, is caught in an election cycle Catch-22: To get acknowledged by pollsters, he needs higher numbers, but he won’t get higher numbers until the pollsters acknowledge him. Something needs to give, and we think it should be the pollsters, who can see better than anyone the dissatisfaction with the major party candidates.”

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-gary-johnson-libertarian-debate-edit-20160805-story.html

  5. steve m

    “We have no illusions about Johnson’s chances to break through the clutter of ugliness and negativity. Third-party candidates don’t get a lot of traction for a reason: They don’t win elections. But in a year when the public is sick of politics as usual, Johnson would bring a set of ideas to the debate stage a lot of people may like.”

  6. Thomas Knapp

    The Tribune piece makes a good case for including Johnson and Stein in the polls and in the debates, but then only calls for Johnson to be included in the polls and in the debates. Odd in a state where Stein’s party has at least once done well enough to become an “established” party (in 2006) and Johnson’s never has.

  7. langa

    This blocking of long messages is getting ridiculous. I just tried (unsuccessfully) to post a 70-word comment. If I wanted to talk only in bumper sticker slogans, I’d be on Twitter.

    If this is some attempt to drive people away, it’s working, at least in my case. If this continues, I won’t be around much longer.

  8. Thomas Knapp

    Quoth langa:

    “This blocking of long messages is getting ridiculous. I just tried (unsuccessfully) to post a 70-word comment. If I wanted to talk only in bumper sticker slogans, I’d be on Twitter.

    “If this is some attempt to drive people away, it’s working, at least in my case. If this continues, I won’t be around much longer.”

    Except that no such blocking seems to be happening. One or two people are having some kind of technical problem. No one else is. When one or two people are having a problem and no one else is having that problem with the same mechanism, it’s not that hard to figure out whose end the problem is on. I suggest undoing whatever change you made to your system right before the problem started and seeing if it goes away. Or at least communicating what OS, browser, etc. you’re using so maybe someone can help you unfuck yourself. Pretty much anything is better than whining that IPR must hate you or something.

    OK, coming up on 200 words or so now, which should be an adequate test of whether or not I’m affected by the langa bug. I recall posting longer comments than this recently, but I wanted to try it on this thread in particular.

  9. Thomas Knapp

    OK, 200+ word comment went through. I think it may have taken a little longer than usual to post, though. Like half a second to a second longer pause between hitting the button and the page properly reloading. Strange.

    langa, have you only been having problems posting here on the open thread, or elsewhere as well?

  10. langa

    That’s the thing. I haven’t made any changes lately. As for what I’m using: Windows 8, Firefox 47.0.1 (in checking my version of Firefox, I discovered that there is apparently a new version available. I’m about to update to it, which might fix the problem, although I doubt it, as I haven’t had any problems with any other website, while this site has gotten progressively worse, on literally a daily basis, leading me to believe the problem is not on my end). And no, it’s not just this thread. It is every thread on IPR, but nowhere else.

  11. langa

    Now that I’ve updated my browser, I’ll try posting a longer comment, and see if that fixed it.

  12. Tom Knapp

    Hmm. One more question: How long ago did this start? I’m going to throw it at IPR’s internal email list again and see if any server changes were made in that same timeframe.

    The flummoxing thing, though, is that it isn’t happening for everyone. I’m posting this comment while not logged in, and coming to IPR via a proxy, and using different identifying info, to see if I get a different result (I can’t try it using Firefox because my machine is a Chromebox).

  13. Thomas L. Knapp

    Hmm … that last comment was held for moderation (not surprising — I suspect maybe some of our trolls use the same proxy I did), but so far as I can tell there was not significant delay/hangup. Maybe a second or two longer to go through, but that could have just been the time required for my stuff to get to the proxy, then to IPR, then back to the proxy, then back to me.

  14. langa

    I would say it started approximately one week ago. And it’s not just me. I know Steve M has complained about it, and a couple of others (including Andy, IIRC). So, it’s affecting at least 3 or 4 others, besides me.

  15. wredlich

    I don’t see any obvious problem. There are definitely longer comments being posted by others:

    http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/08/gary-johnson-publicly-declines-debate-with-jill-stein-discusses-his-running-mate/#comment-1410589

    Can someone give me an example of a comment that is not going through? Copy and paste your comment into a draft e-mail to me – wredlich@gmail.com – before you click submit, and if the comment doesn’t go through then click send on the e-mail.

  16. steve m

    This will be a test I am re sending a very long TK message. The one Warren refferences 08:52

  17. steve m

    2.5 minutes later it timed out with

    Request Timeout

    Server timeout waiting for the HTTP request from the client.

  18. Thomas L. Knapp

    Hmm. That error message returns some results in Google, including ones specifically related to WordPress, so hopefully it will help Warren with diagnostics.

    Question for you and langa: When is the last time you flushed your DNS cache?

    IPR did switch hosts awhile back. I’m wondering if this may not be related to the site’s previous DNS info still being somewhere down in your stuff, in a way that pops up when you try to comment but not when you just read the site.

  19. steve m

    Well two days ago I installed a new hard drive and a brand new version of opensuse linux. The problem was happening before and after the update.

    I also just re-ran the test with the crome developer tools open so I could catch the network traffic. I have sent that as a report to Warren.

  20. steve m

    This is what a query of my DNS says

    dig independentpoliticalreport.com

    ; <> DiG 9.9.9-P1 <> independentpoliticalreport.com
    ;; global options: +cmd
    ;; Got answer:
    ;; ->>HEADER<<- opcode: QUERY, status: NOERROR, id: 33681
    ;; flags: qr rd ra; QUERY: 1, ANSWER: 1, AUTHORITY: 0, ADDITIONAL: 1

    ;; OPT PSEUDOSECTION:
    ; EDNS: version: 0, flags:; udp: 4096
    ;; QUESTION SECTION:
    ;independentpoliticalreport.com. IN A

    ;; ANSWER SECTION:
    independentpoliticalreport.com. 425 IN A 198.71.233.3

    ;; Query time: 23 msec
    ;; SERVER: 192.168.0.1#53(192.168.0.1)
    ;; WHEN: Sat Aug 06 11:47:53 PDT 2016
    ;; MSG SIZE rcvd: 75

  21. steve m

    doing a whois on ipr gives…

    Domain Name: INDEPENDENTPOLITICALREPORT.COM
    Registrar: GODADDY.COM, LLC
    Sponsoring Registrar IANA ID: 146
    Whois Server: whois.godaddy.com
    Referral URL: http://www.godaddy.com
    Name Server: NS43.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
    Name Server: NS44.DOMAINCONTROL.COM

  22. wredlich

    This is frustrating because I can’t replicate the problem. I don’t think it has anything to do with comment length.

    A couple of the IP addresses having problems seem to go through Level3 in Miami (from my traceroute requests for the IP addresses).

    Warrens-MacBook-Pro:~ wredlich$ traceroute 198.71.233.3
    traceroute to 198.71.233.3 (198.71.233.3), 64 hops max, 52 byte packets
    1 192.168.0.1 (192.168.0.1) 1.006 ms 0.839 ms 0.704 ms
    2 172.97.36.1 (172.97.36.1) 3.737 ms 5.768 ms 3.840 ms
    3 10.63.0.93 (10.63.0.93) 3.892 ms 5.510 ms 3.922 ms
    4 10.63.0.166 (10.63.0.166) 4.837 ms 5.758 ms 3.972 ms
    5 10.63.2.25 (10.63.2.25) 4.108 ms 5.977 ms 4.022 ms
    6 10.63.0.77 (10.63.0.77) 5.816 ms 7.606 ms 8.019 ms
    7 66.103.15.113 (66.103.15.113) 8.451 ms 7.753 ms 8.111 ms
    8 7-1-22.ear1.miami1.level3.net (4.15.220.49) 8.327 ms 24.980 ms 14.550 ms

    —-

    Warrens-MacBook-Pro:~ wredlich$ traceroute 45.23.93.52
    traceroute to 45.23.93.52 (45.23.93.52), 64 hops max, 52 byte packets
    1 192.168.0.1 (192.168.0.1) 3.546 ms 0.790 ms 0.730 ms
    2 172.97.36.1 (172.97.36.1) 3.808 ms 5.020 ms 4.159 ms
    3 10.63.0.93 (10.63.0.93) 3.451 ms 5.447 ms 4.442 ms
    4 10.63.0.166 (10.63.0.166) 4.257 ms 6.036 ms 3.859 ms
    5 10.63.2.25 (10.63.2.25) 4.053 ms 5.896 ms 3.755 ms
    6 10.63.0.77 (10.63.0.77) 6.039 ms 8.166 ms 7.942 ms
    7 66.103.15.113 (66.103.15.113) 8.568 ms 7.996 ms 8.012 ms
    8 7-1-22.ear1.miami1.level3.net (4.15.220.49) 7.595 ms 7.941 ms 7.940 m

  23. steve m

    Warren, Thanks for your efforts. I realize that IPR is a low budget part time effort from you. If we can’t resolve it we will live within its limitations.

    Thanks again

  24. wredlich

    We are testing comments on a new post (named Test Post). I have posted comments from a new “Test User” account that is merely a subscriber of lengths up to 500 words with no problem.

  25. langa

    I don’t know if this helps, but on a couple of occasions, I was able to get comments to post only by consolidating paragraphs. For example, this comment (http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/08/gary-johnson-publicly-declines-debate-with-jill-stein-discusses-his-running-mate/#comment-1410471) originally consisted of the quote, and then a two paragraph response. It wouldn’t post, so I simply combined the two paragraphs into one, and it did post. So, it may not simply be the number of words.

  26. J.R.Myers

    I am ending my 2016 POTUS bid today. Though I will still appear in Idaho on the Copeland/Myers ticket. I will now focus on growing the Alaska Constitution Party and my campaign for the Alaska House. It’s been a fascinating experience. I thank everyone who supported my efforts.

  27. Cody Quirk

    You could still work to get the Copeland/Myers ticket on in other states, J.R.

  28. J.R.Myers

    Donald Trump will be on the CA AIP ballot. It wil be a fusion ballot. The CA AIP will receive five electors in exchange. Two of the former AIP POTUS candidates will be named electors as a consolation.

  29. langa

    I think the “Gary Johnson moment” was mostly a case of the media looking for something to kill time talking about during the lull before the major party conventions.

  30. Thomas Knapp

    I don’t think that the Johnson/Weld wave has crested yet. It may crash before November. In fact, I think it probably will. But I don’t think it has yet, and I think there’s still a slim chance of making the debate cut. Anyone who knows me knows I’m not saying that as any kind of starry-eyed fanboi.

  31. Andy

    So Better For America has recruited an open CIA goon to run for President. Not surprising.

    It will be interesting to see what happens given that it is past the ballot access deadline in most states. I only know of Better For America having launched ballot access petition drives in two states, New Mexico and Arkansas, and the drive in New Mexico failed (the signatures in Arkansas are still being checked for validity).

  32. Thomas Knapp

    If I was trying to reverse-engineer the intent of Better For America from its operators’ actions, I’d interpret that intent as two-fold:

    1) Reduce the chances of Gary Johnson carrying any states; and

    2) Help ensure a Trump victory while appearing to be fighting like hell to prevent one.

    The two states I’ve seen emphasized vis a vis Better For America are New Mexico and Utah — the two states Johnson seems likely to do best in. The apparent intention there is to split the “not Trump, but not Clinton either” vote so that Trump can carry those states and Johnson can’t.

    To the extent that Better For America is backed by GOP establishment types, the further purpose would be able to tell America “hey, we TRIED to stop Trump, don’t give up on the GOP,” without actually stopping Trump and giving the White House to the Democrats.

    But I may be missing something.

  33. Thomas Knapp

    “Any word as to whom the Reform Party has chosen as their nominee?”

    IIRC, that’s supposed to be announced at 5pm Eastern. But there have been last-minute developments I’m not supposed to know about (ahem) and I will not be greatly surprised if there’s another delay

  34. Be Rational

    Will Gary Johnson be on Ohio ballot? Unclear
    Jeremy Fugleberg, jfugleberg@enquirer.com 8 p.m. EDT August 9, 2016

    http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/09/gary-johnson-may-not-ohio-ballot/88478704/

    “Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson may not appear on the ballot in Ohio in November unless an unusual strategy works out.

    The Libertarian Party of Ohio had said they would submit petitions to put the former New Mexico governor on the ballot. But on early Tuesday afternoon, a day before the filing deadline, supporters wearing Gary Johnson shirts submitted petitions to instead put Charlie Earl on the ballot as a placeholder candidate.”

    *******

    You had two months for an easy ballot drive if you had waited and started right after the Convention. It would take only 15 days for 4 good LP petitioners to collect 7,500 sigs in OH in the summertime to put GJ on the ballot with a good margin of safety.

    Who came up with this unnecessarily risky and foolhardy plan?

  35. Thomas Knapp

    Now that the signatures have been turned, in, the LP has ten days to say “replace Charlie Earl with Gary Johnson.”

    “This risky and foolhardy plan” was the exact opposite of “risky and foolhardy.” It allowed them to start collecting signatures early before the nomination, it’s clearly allowed by Ohio law, and in fact has been used by the LP before.

  36. Be Rational

    More from the article:

    ********

    “Here’s the problem: It’s not yet clear Johnson can tag in and replace Earl on the ballot.”

    “This is news to us,” said Josh Eck, spokesman for Ohio Secretary of State John Husted, late Tuesday when he was told of the Libertarian Party’s late-breaking plans.”I am not aware of any time in Ohio history where a candidate has filed petitions to run for president and asked for another name to be put on the ballot. Our legal team will need to review the revised code to find out if that is legally possible.”

    ******

    It’s risky and foolish because no one cleared this in advance; and the Sec of State can play dirty and refuse to put Johnson on the ballot – law or no – requiring more risky legal action. Courts often rule against LP candidates even when the law is clearly on the side of the LP.

  37. Be Rational

    It’s risky and foolish because the OH LP could have just waited and started later.

    4 petitioners 15 days.
    1 petitioner could do the whole thing in the 60 days that were available.

    There was no need to take the substitution route.

    But, they could have at least cleared it in advance with a written letter and a written reply.

  38. Thomas Knapp

    The LP substituted in Ohio in, IIRC, 1996 and 2004. Winger talks about this over at Ballot Access News. The idea that there’s anything unusual, or risky, or foolish about it is bullshit from top to bottom. Why would the LP need to “clear” something that there’s no doubt whatsoever about?

  39. Be Rational

    Yes, I had read Ballot Access News.

    I also read the comments from the Sec of State’s Office:
    does it indicate ignorance or a plan of action?

    It’s always risky to put events up to chance or up to the whim of government – even if the law is clearly on your side.

    There was no need to start early.

    Sure, the substitution may and should happen without a hitch. And maybe this will just mean extra publicity due to the article and some rebuttle article that is now called for. So, that would be all good.

    But, Gary Johnson should have been on the Michigan ballot in 2012 according to Winger and the law. But the Sec of State kept him off anyway and the court sided with the state.

    Life has enough unavoidable risk without taking on more. My own personal philosophy is to avoid any dealings with the state that can be avoided.

  40. Thomas Knapp

    “There was no need to start early.”

    Yes, because we should never do early what we can put off until the last minute.

    Is Ohio’s executive branch arbitrary, capricious, and absolutely dedicated to keeping Libertarians off the ballot at any cost? Yes.

    If Ohio’s executive branch can get away with pulling some kind of illegal shit over substitution, will they? Maybe.

    If they can’t get away with pulling illegal shit over substitution will they look for — and find — something else to pull illegal shit over? Yes, if they want to pull illegal shit, they will pull illegal shit.

    The possibility that Ohio’s executive branch might pull some weird trick out of its bag of illegal shit is no reason to go out of our way to act in a risky manner, like by waiting until late to do what can be done early.

  41. Be Rational

    7,500 sigs in 60 days in summer in OH means no risk. Only incompetence could fail such a drive.

    Doing 35,000 sigs in 15 days all in sub-zero weather in January OH would be a bit risky, but it’s been done – and it was an unexpected emergency. If planned ahead that would be doable too with little risk.

    There was no risk from waiting. But now there is additional, avoidable risk. Increasing one’s avoidable risk level is an unforced error that, if repeated often enough, will eventually result in increased failures and losses.

  42. Thomas Knapp

    There is ALWAYS risk in waiting until later what you can do now.

    There was precisely ZERO foreseeable risk in starting early with a substitute. The law allows it and they’ve done it before.

    Is it always possible that a government official will arbitrarily and capriciously break the law? Yes. But since there’s no telling which law he or she might break, there’s no reason to modify behavior on the off chance that it will be this law or that. If it wasn’t substitution, it would be that not all of the signatures were in Number 2 pencil. If all the signatures were in Number 2 pencil, it would be that they weren’t in blue ink. If they were in blue ink, it would be that they needed to be mixed between the two in precise percentages, or that printed names needed to be (or not be) inside quotation marks, or that petitioners must all be named “Rudolf” and have eagle tattoos on their right arms.

    Jesus fucking Christ. This isn’t even rationally debatable. Since you’re debating it, you should change your nickname.

  43. Be Rational

    All of the petition form risks that you mention are unavoidable. You have to do the ballot drive and comply with those rules.

    Choosing an early starting date and using substitution when there’s plenty of time to wait and petitiion for the actual candidate involves risk that is avoidable.

    That is the difference that any rational person can see. Sorry that you can’t.

  44. Scovich

    The American Solidarity Party’s presidential ticket of Mike Maturen and Juan Munoz has achieved ballot access in Colorado.
    We are working on a press release about our campaign strategy. Who should I send it to in order to have it posted here?

  45. Jim

    Americans Deserve Better PAC, which uses the web address http://votefortheadults.com is running a pro-Johnson 30 second tv ad and a 60 second radio ad in Maine from 8/12 – 8/26 as a test run. They’re spending $65,000 running these.

    tv ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2Y9NOXhZyg

    radio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwNFT47afNE

    Purple PAC says it might run this 30 second pro-Johnson tv ad on Fox on Sunday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlhG4a0anE0

    Some have favorably compared Johnson’s new “One Day” ad with Reagan’s “Morning in America” ad
    http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/johnson-reagan-morning-america/

    And the Critic’s on this site have posted their review of the new Johnson ad on youtube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWl2Zgd0Qpk

  46. Be Rational

    “Americans Deserve Better PAC, which uses the web address http://votefortheadults.com is running a pro-Johnson 30 second tv ad and a 60 second radio ad in Maine from 8/12 – 8/26 as a test run. They’re spending $65,000 running these.”

    *

    It’s about time.

    And thank you for running these ads.

    The spot is OK, not great, but it will reach people. Maine is a good place to start. The $65,000 should be enough to be noticed and to cause an increase in interest and polling in Maine and as a first round to winning some or all of Maine’s Electoral Votes. Of course a lot depends on the mix: which TV and radio stations were chosen and how much on radio vs. TV. ME has three TV markets and it is essential to run in all three; especially in Bangor and Presque Isle to pick up the northern CD EV.

    But, there is little time for testing and analysis. We need to roll out in a dozen target states before the end of this test run in order to show the media that this is a serious race deserving of coverage on the major networks’ evening news programs in time for the debate polling.

  47. Be Rational

    Purple PAC says it might run this 30 second pro-Johnson tv ad on Fox on Sunday.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlhG4a0anE0

    *

    One spot, run once, nationwide?
    Well that’s something of course.

    Better to run 50 times on major network broadcast TV in one or more target states, depending on your budget.

  48. Thomas Knapp

    —–
    One spot, run once, nationwide?
    Well that’s something of course.

    Better to run 50 times on major network broadcast TV in one or more target states, depending on your budget.
    —–

    That depends on what the goal is.

    If the goal is to reach likely voters who lean Republican but don’t like Trump, and to perk up the ears of the donor class, you advertise on Fox during the political news shows.

    If your goal is to reach the empty couches of non-voting football fans while they’re off taking a leak or microwaving nachos before the game starts again, you go with major network broadcast TV.

  49. Be Rational

    If your goal is to reach ANYONE, one ad is not considered effective by any advertising professional. Very rarely will one ad be noticed by and then influence enough people to take action to be effective. It takes repetition.

    Unless you have a breakthrough ad – such as Apple’s hammer ad – one ad run one time will do almost nothing.

    Much better to run 50 times on major network broadcast TV in targeted states, again depending on your budget. The best advertising package available in most markets would be a news package that allows you to run multiple spots bracketing the morning, noon, evening and late night news broadcasts over a period of a week. Buying a news package for two weeks on major network broadcast TV will reach adults, voters, the political class, and the news media themselves who watch the shows and choose what to cover on their news shows. It will result in major coverage of the LP and LP candidates in the target states. It would be adviseable to prepare the LP activists in these states for the onslaught of interview requests that will follow and to prepare their best spokespersons and candidates to take the interviews.

  50. Thomas Knapp

    “one ad run one time”

    The post says they’re considering running the ad “on Sunday.”

    Not “one time on Sunday,” just “on Sunday.”

    For all I know — and probably for all you know — it may run on every commercial break between 6am and midnight.

  51. Be Rational

    Why can’t the LP win elections?
    Incompetent Party leaders.

    Strategy, advertising, petitioning, outreach, ballot access, building county parties …
    It’s SNAFU at the LP

    *****

    Here’s another lesson: NEVER use placeholders when you have an easy ballot drive with enough time to petition for the actual Candidate.

    *****
    Columbus, Ohio • Aug 12, 2016 •
    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/08/11/Libertarians_will_not_be_able_to_substitute_Johnson.html

    The Columbus Dispatch

    “It appears that the Libertarian Party will be unable to place its presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, as an independent candidate on Ohio’s general election ballot.

    County boards of elections will be unable to certify petition signatures submitted for a “placeholder” candidate, would-be 2014 gubernatorial candidate Charlie Earl, by a key deadline on Monday, according to the office of Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted.

    Monday is the deadline for the withdrawal and replacement of independent candidates and the needed 5,000 signatures among the 12,000-plus submitted with Earl’s name will not be certified in time to meet that deadline, Husted spokesman Joshua Eck said today. Husted has given the elections board until Aug. 19 to complete the certification, several days before the legally mandated deadline.”

  52. Be Rational

    There’s no excuse for such a foolish decision.

    One good LP petitioner could have collected 7,500 sigs between the nomination and the filing deadline with Gary Johnson’s name on the petitions.

  53. Thomas Knapp

    “There’s no excuse for doing it right and getting it done instead of fucking around until the last minute on the premise that something arbitrary, capricious and unpredictable might happen if you act now.”

    Fixed, no charge.

  54. Be Rational

    “There’s no excuse for NOT doing it right and getting it done instead of fucking around until the last minute …”

    You are exactly correct – as amended, of course. That is an apt description of what the OH LP did. They started early, in March, but didn’t bother to collect and file the signatures early. They could have filed them all before the convention – they had more than two months. How many did they collect early? Wanna bet it was fewer than 1,000 sigs?

    Filing BEFORE the convention with a placeholder – fine. The sigs would have been verified before the convention and the substitution made right after, with time to petion again if necessary, for GJ/WW.

    But they collect next to nothing before the convention. Then they kept going on the wrong candidate. They should have scrapped those few sigs and started again since they had already … f’d ” around until the last minute on the premise that NOTHING arbitrary, capricious and unpredictable might happen …” but knowing full well that in OH, the Republicans have been pulling anything and everything to keep the LP off the ballot, which is why they were already in court against the previous state antics.

    This attack on the 2016 LP campaign was pedictable and should have been anticipated.
    There is no excuse for NOT petitioning for GJ/WW.

    They didn’t really start early – this is the LP we’re talking about – it’s SOP to wait till the last minute.
    Wanna bet they collected the bulk of the sigs in the last two weeks?

    *******

    In a statement Tuesday, Ohio Libertarians said, “As soon as state officials certify the placeholder petition … the Johnson/Weld campaign will file the paperwork that will be the final step in fulfilling our promise to Ohio voters and to everyone who signed the petition to give them an option to vote for our party’s nominee.”

    There’s a quote from the OH LP. See how they plan to screw up again. They will wait until the sigs are certified to file for substitution – but the deadline to file for substitution is Monday.

    DON’T WAIT.

    GET YOUR BUTS INTO THE SEC OF STATE’S OFFICE AND FILE FOR SUBSTITUTION TODAY!

    Fly GJ and WW to Columbus to make the substitution if possible.

    … Do it before the substitution deadline.
    … Do not wait until the sigs have been certified.
    ,,, and go back every day until the sigs ARE certified.

  55. George Phillies

    Can they file for substitution before the candidate is certified? It appears that the Secretary of State believes that the answer is no.

  56. Be Rational

    … and unfortunately, what the Ohio LP did was not what TK has suggested they should have done.

    The OH LP did the ballot drive wrong by using a stand-in, which could have been avoided … AND they wasted time and waited till the last minute to do the ballot drive, which means there was no need for a stand-in.

    Using a stand-in could have been justified had they collect the signatures and filed before the nominating convention. But they didn’t do this.

    Instead, they used a stand-in but collected the buld of the signatures after the convention when the nominee was known.

    Do it early and do it right. They OH LP did neither.

  57. Be Rational

    At this point, it is imperative to file for substitution – if it hasn’t already been done – EARLY on MONDAY before the deadline.

    Since this is now a major controversy, take advantage of the opportunity.

    * Fly-in Johnosn or Weld or both for the filing on Monday.
    * Make sure to alert all the media to the filing and a speaking event afterward.
    * No matter what happens at the filing – they will either accept the filing without incident, refuse the filing, or accept the filing provisionally – this will be a good story for the news. Attention can be focused on the attempt of the two major parties to do anything to keep 3rd parties (the LP and GJ/WW in particular) off the ballot.
    * Having the candidate(s) there will draw more media attention and coverage and make it more likely for the Sec of State to handle the filing fairly and legally.
    * The public record of the filing event with the candidates and media present will be a valuable aid to any legal battle to follow if the Sec of State should follow through on their threat to deny substitution.

  58. Deran

    I thought Mr Knapp had embraced the Reform Party?

    To be frank, among the many people I know who are considering voting Libertarian are drawn by the fact that the LP has two former Governors as their ticket.

    I see on BAN and elsewhere that the Peace and Freedom Party has nominated Gloria La Riva as their Presidential candidate. It’s tragic to see the P&FP finally fall into the thrall of Stalinists.

  59. Thomas Knapp

    “I thought Mr Knapp had embraced the Reform Party?”

    Not exactly. But I’ve explained what happened there enough times now that I’m not going to explain it again unless there’s a reason to.

    I am a sustaining member of the Libertarian National Committee’s “party membership” program. I am a registered Libertarian Party of Florida member and, so far as I know, a member in good standing of the state party. I’ll be voting in the Libertarian Party’s primary on August 30th and expect that I will vote for one or more Libertarian candidates in November. I’ve also donated to more than one Libertarian candidate this year, and to zero candidates of any other party.

  60. Jim

    Johnson campaign says it raised $2.9 million in the first half of August.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/politics/gary-johnson-outreach-fundraising-rallies/index.html

    This comes after the campaign’s earlier statement that they raised $1 million over the last two weeks of July, when they had the Money Comet and Drew Carey fundraiser (there is a slight overlap with the first two days of August when that statement was issued.) A better estimate will be available in a few days, but assuming they raised around $250,000 in the first half of July, that would mean the campaign has raised roughly $5.5 million year to date.

  61. Jim

    Johnson campaign says it raised $2.9 million in the first half of August.

    (Not posted? Story is on CNN titled “Where is Gary Johnson?”)

    This comes after the campaign’s earlier statement that they raised $1 million over the last two weeks of July, when they had the Money Comet and Drew Carey fundraiser (there is a slight overlap with the first two days of August when that statement was issued.) A better estimate will be available in a few days, but assuming they raised around $250,000 in the first half of July, that would mean the campaign has raised roughly $5.5 million year to date.

  62. Be Rational

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-qz1i82zO4k2S2a3SCrzpA

    So, here they are.

    Alternative PAC.

    They have 3 videos at this time – one with no sound, probably a glitch. Let’s see if existing Johnson supporters and movement libertarians will do more to build Alt PAC than Alt PAC will do to promote Johnson – and then Alt PAC can pay themselves thanks to the existing Libertarians and Johnson supporters.

  63. Thomas L. Knapp

    “So much for social media carrying Johnson to the debates.”

    I think the suggestion that social media would help carry Johnson into the debates was premised on real, grassroots social media, not on scammy PACs raising money so that their operators could pay their high school aged nephews $30k to “make memes or whatever it is you youngsters do these days” since even in PAC World spending EVERYTHING you raise on your own salary is considered uncool.

    And frankly Johnson/Weld seem to have quite a bit of genuine social media mojo. How much is hard to tell, and I realize there’s an extent to which I’m caught inside a libertarian echo chamber on e.g. Facebook and Twitter do to my friend/follower pool, but it seems like there’s at least some fire behind that smoke.

    I guess that’s my obligatory daily defense of the Johnson/Weld campaign (yes, I know they don’t run the PAC — what I was defending was their reliance on social media to help get the message out).

  64. Be Rational

    On my social media accounts (under various identities to track feeds coming to different personalities) there has been no mention whatsoever of Johnson. What I find comes up only by actively searching for “Gary Johnson,” although now I can just search under “Gary,” so that seems to be the limited extent of the success of social media.

    It’s sad that so many individuals are so deluded by they hype of social media that the Johnson campaign is not – at least not yet – using the best media available to actually reach voters and grow in the polls.

    In the first round they only need to hit 15% in the polls, so they only need to reach the “low hanging fruit” – those who are ready and waiting for a libertarian alternative but don’t even know that Gary exists – 70% of the US population doesn’t know that Gary Johnson exists or anything about him – 98% of households have TV and watch it, and those that are politically interested are sitting at home watching TV news at least one hour every day on average and they can be easily targeted and reached.

  65. Thomas L. Knapp

    Oh, I see — I thought your posts on social media were genuine, not just to get the door open for you to ride your TV advertising hobbyhorse.

    Will social media get Johnson/Weld into the debates? I doubt it. TV advertising would almost certainly help if they can afford to do it. But it’s not Johnson/Weld’s fault that Kibbe’s PAC isn’t doing a very convincing job of laundering its contributions.

    Johnson DID enjoy a very slight publicity uptick for about a month starting in early July, but now he’s just about exactly back to where he was as of getting the nomination.

    His polling honeymoon is probably coming to an end as well.

    It’s possible that the sheer ugliness of the major party candidates will keep LP presidential vote totals slightly elevated. But unless Bill Weld pulls one of the miracles out of his ass that Johnson seems to think he keeps there, 15% leading up to the debates and 5% come election day are probably both well out of reach. They should probably be thinking about how to defend their very distant third place finish from Stein at this point.

  66. Be Rational

    I don’t consider IPR to be “social” media – political and slightly anti-social, perhaps. So, here I have a unique indentity for even more important reasons, so that I can participate in an open and genuine way to promote the LP.

    My alternate social media accounts, such as Facebook, give me a chance to perceive the world through other eyes, since the news feeds are skewed or selected or targeted or biased or whatever you want to call it. Maybe you should try it.

  67. Be Rational

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjEkW7NDQTc

    Hello Gary,

    If you can’t make your own spots, try the one above.
    Here’s your star. Cut this into 30 sec and 60 sec spots and run it.
    Run something.
    Do it now.

    For you, this election will end by Sept 15th, if you don’t start advertising NOW on Major Network Broadcast TV in targeted states.

    You should spend at least $3 million between now and Sept 15. If you have more, spend that too.
    Yes, all of it.

    Save nothing. Spend it all and you’ll raise more.
    Don’t advertise and your campaign is done.

    I’ve layed out the plan.

    You are flat in the polls. You are no longer rising.

    Please start now.

  68. George Phillies

    Out of curiosity, what do you think of the alternative TV plan of advertising on news shows, and hitting in particular the key markets where the chattering classes lurk, namely DC, New York, Los Angeles, and perhaps Atlanta. These markets are expensive, but hit the folks who decide what the news is, convincing them that there is a campaign.

  69. natural born citizen

    Crane’s PurplePAC did indeed run a Johnson/Weld ad during Fox News Sunday on the 14th. This was on broadcast television, not cable.

  70. Be Rational

    ” a Johnson/Weld ad ”

    Just one? A single ad?

    You need to run many ads within a short time frame – several days generally, maybe a week or two in some cases – on the same stations(s) in order to have an impact. Most ads don’t register or have an impact on a viewer until they’ve been seen for several repetitions.

    They could have targeted one or more states with the same money and run enough repetitions to have an impact and help Johnson increase his name awareness generating a rise in the polls in the targeted state(s), thereby securing some earned media in the process, which would lead to more exposure and another rise in awareness and polling.

  71. Be Rational

    Another option, if they have the funds, is to advertise on the same program consistently, week after week, for a period of a couple of months. Perhaps – hopefully – Purple PAC is planning weekly, nationwide ads on the same program, which would be effective.

  72. natural born citizen

    @15:01

    There was only one PurplePAC ad on the hour-long Fox News Sunday program, that is correct.

    I don’t know if there were other ads because I did not sit in front of the television all day watching that channel.

    Why would I do that? What a stupid question. You should try to be rational and maybe you could come up with better questions.

  73. Be Rational

    My question was an obvious, rhetorical introduction to the comments to follow.

    But it could also directed at Purple PAC or to anyone who knows. I never accused you of drinking the FOX Kool-Aid all day.

    There are professional ad trackers who watch TV all day and keep track of the ads that appear on the air who provide such data for major advertisers and agencies.

  74. George Phillies

    “You need to run many ads within a short time frame”

    It depends what you are trying to get out of the ads. There is also the minor technical issue of having enough money to pay for any particular plan.

  75. George Phillies

    Johnson 2016 financials

    Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period 459,063.50
    7. Total Receipts This Period 1,602,810.43
    8. Subtotal (6 + 7) 2,061,873.93
    9. Total Disbursements This Period 856,518.54
    10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period 1,205,355.39

    http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00605568/1096305/sb/ALL

    Of the $856,518, $450,000 went to Liberty Consulting, and much of the rest went to other consultants. There actually are some Facebook ads in there, though, and some media spots. There’s $100,000 or so for printing.

  76. Be Rational

    “You need to run many ads within a short time frame” – BR

    There is also the minor technical issue of having enough money to pay for any particular plan. – GP
    ******

    Which is why the best plan is to target key states and saturate them with advertising. This will boost the campaign in the polls in the target states, possibly changing the outcome in those states or even winning the EVs in those states. This gives the national media a reason to cover the campaign nationwide, giving the campaign free exposure nationwide that it couldn’t buy directly – using leverage to earn free nationwide media coverage.

    In the long run, over a period of many years, targeting the same key states will allow the LP to win seats in the legislature in the targeted states which will earn credibility, free media and create a bench of candidates elected as LP members to run for higher offices in the future.

  77. langa

    All those people in the LP who believe the path to freedom is to trick the public into electing a “closet” libertarian, who will then proceed to ram liberty down the country’s throat, should read this article:

    http://fff.org/2016/08/17/a-coup-against-trump/

    Forget Trump. If an actual libertarian tricked people into electing him and then tried to implement actual libertarian policies, is there any doubt that the response outlined in that article would be put into effect?

  78. George Phillies

    “You need to run many ads within a short time frame” – BR

    There is also the minor technical issue of having enough money to pay for any particular plan. – GP
    ******

    Which is why the best plan is to target key states and saturate them with advertising.”

    To repeat, you need enough money to pay for that.

  79. Thane Eichenauer

    Andy> I wonder how many government sockpuppets and catfishers we have had show up here on IPR over the years.

    I imagine less than 20% of the claims and accusations. Even 20% is a high guess but I could believe it.

  80. Be Rational

    “You need to run many ads within a short time frame” – BR

    There is also the minor technical issue of having enough money to pay for any particular plan. – GP
    ******

    Which is why the best plan is to target key states and saturate them with advertising.”

    To repeat, you need enough money to pay for that. – GP

    *********

    You can saturate a small state for the cost of a single nationwide ad on each of the 4 major networks.

    You can reach a significant portion of the population for 20 cents per capita. This will result in earned free media worth many times the amount spent. You have to avoid states that are dominated by a large, expensive TV market where you are paying for other states. So, the benefit of contiguous target states where the overlapping markets are all in states you are targeting.

    ME, NH, VT, MA, RI are all good target states for GJ/WW in this election and the overlapping markets are all beneficial.

    Because of NYC which is too expensive to buy for a target state plan, CT is more difficult to reach, but also benefits from targeting the rest of New England.

  81. Be Rational

    In the case of CT and RI, my plan includes them as supporting players for the other 4 states to get the earned media. CT and RI benefit from the resluting free media, so it means relying on more leverage and the saturation of the other 4.

  82. Be Rational

    August 19, 2016 at 22:02
    Out of curiosity, what do you think of the alternative TV plan of advertising on news shows, and hitting in particular the key markets where the chattering classes lurk, namely DC, New York, Los Angeles, and perhaps Atlanta. These markets are expensive, but hit the folks who decide what the news is, convincing them that there is a campaign. –
    George Phillies

    *******

    I understand why this would seem to be a good idea – target the media directly to get them to cover you – but it is actually a counterproductive strategy.

    Individuals in the media know when they are being targeted and they know when they are being used. If the ads are only run for their benefit in these major markets, they will know . They will also know that this is not a good way to win votes, win states, win electoral votes, change the outcome of the election in any state nor win the election. It’s just a gambit to get free media.

    So, at this point the media will dismiss the campaign because it’s a small third party with no chance and because the campaign doesn’t know how to run a campaign or gain votes. Such direct targeting of the media will increase the view of the media that the party or candidate (in this case, Libertarians) are incompetent and desperate and they will be even more reluctant to cover them in the future.

    That also is why targeting key states WILL work. First of all, it’s what the Ds and Rs have to do – because even the Ds and Rs don’t have enough money to run nationwide effectively. It’s also necessary to win 270 EVs – not every state – so, targeting is the key to winning. Finally, being small, the LP needs to win somewhere first – make a beachhead on the political battlefield and then expand, so targeting is the ONLY logical strategy.

    The media knows all of this already.

    The LP needs to learn it.

    How to build a national party to win, through long term targeting of key states.

  83. Thomas Knapp

    “You can reach a significant portion of the population for 20 cents per capita. … ME, NH, VT, MA, RI are all good target states for GJ/WW in this election and the overlapping markets are all beneficial.”

    Combine population of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island: About 11.14 million.

    Cost to reach at 20 cents per capita: About $2.3 million.

    Johnson campaign reported cash on hand as of July 31: $1.2 million.

    Or, as Dr. Phillies keeps trying to tell you, there’s a “minor technical issue of having enough money to pay for” your proposal.

  84. Be Rational

    Which shows you haven’t read all of my posts. It starts with a smaller number of states and builds from there. It also starts with a portion of the advertising run and continues through the election. Also, in the detail, some of the target states are funded at a lower level to support the contiguous states – of course it would be nice to have enough to fund every state fully.

    The Johnson campaign had $1.2 million on hand at the end of July.
    They reported raising $2.9 million in the first two weeks of August.
    They wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars on “consultants.”

    Do the math. Follow all of the posts on all of the threads.
    They have easily raised enough money to fund the first 14 target states fully at $5 million. This was the opening round budget to get to 15%.

    Had they run the advertising, that would have enabled the campaign to raise far more funds – donors want to see action, not slush funds.

  85. Be Rational

    * OK, they reported $2.9 million in August through the end of the money bomb, August 15.

  86. Thomas Knapp

    “They have easily raised enough money to fund the first 14 target states fully at $5 million”

    They’ve raised, as of their last campaign finance report, $2.9 million.

    I’m not really good at math but I’m pretty sure that $2.9 million is less than $5 million. And even if a lot of it hadn’t been blown on “consulting fees,” it still costs money to raise money. Not to mention that half a million and change had already been spent before they even got the nomination.

    They haven’t reported any numbers for August yet. That report isn’t due until September 20th (they have made claims, but those claims are not official reports — and we know they’ve lied even on official reports before, so all these numbers should be treated as highly provisional).

    This is not to dispute any of your claims regarding what kind of advertising works best or what they should be doing. But unless they spend their cash on hand on a time machine and go back and do things differently, it’s extraordinarily unlikely that they will have the cash on hand to do what you’re talking about at this time.

    Or, probably, at any future time. I mean, let’s show a little understanding here — what good is Ron’s new house to him without a new truck to pull his new boat?

  87. George Phillies

    Your math does not work. 1.2 Million, plus 2.9 million, is barely 4 million. That’s before the consultants take their cut of the 2.9 million. The money is not there.

    The best states to target, if you believe this tactic, are the ones with the least contrary advertising, e.g., California not in LA, which is expensive.

    Also, your objectives are wrong.

  88. George Phillies

    I am assuming, a dubious practice, that your 2.9 million is correct, and is not partly in the July totals.

  89. Be Rational

    The point is that they needed the advertising. To get the advertising they needed to fire the consultants.

    so …

    $1.2 million left
    $2.9 million more raised in 15 days (It’s their number, so who knows, we have to rely on something.)
    ——-
    $4.1, million (which is over $4 million)
    $0.5 million to consultants for July
    ——
    $4.6 million

    … now go ahead and add in the consultants’ fees for June, May …

    They have plenty of cash to fund the first 14 states.

    Plus they would have raised far more money if they were actually doing something.
    I could have maxed out but I’ve sent nothing.
    I would have volunteered to call donors free, at my own expense, to raise more, if they had a plan.

    (CA – but not LA – is specifically part of my plan.)
    (My plan is the only one that works. It’s possible to make some adjustments, especially in the order among the first 14 and the second 11, but these are the key states we need to target. And this is the way to EARN free media coverage nationwide – especially on the major network evening news that has blacked out the Johnson campaign.)

    The media doesn’t cover Libertarian campaigns and candidates because LP campaign managers and LP leaders don’t know how to run effective campaigns, guaranteeing that they will lose, so there’s no need to cover them.

  90. Be Rational

    “The Washington Post reported earlier today that Johnson’s campaign has raised over $2.9 million since the beginning of August. The Post quoted Johnson as saying, ‘The fact that we received more than 90,000 individual small contributions is overwhelming.’”

    – as reported right here on IPR

  91. Jim

    Why would you assume Johnson would have raised the same amount absent any consulting? $1.2 million + $2.9 million estimated fundraising in August – $0.6 estimated expenses in August = $3.5 million. That’s what they have to work with. That’s what they hopefully will unload over the next two weeks.

  92. Jim

    The LNC is up to $1,673,098 through the end of July, which surpasses the year end totals for the last 11 years (2005 – 2015.)

  93. Be Rational

    98% of Americans own and watch TV.

    Fewer than half of actual VOTERS are active on social media on the Internet. The number is well below 50%, so you just can’t reach enough people there to get to 15% in the polls, let alone win an election.

    You have to compute a weighted average of voter participation. Then you have to make adjustments for actual participation on social media. Although about 80% of adults “have access” to the internet, only about 70% of those are on social media at all. This makes 56%, but you have to adjust for the high number of individuals over age 30 who sign up on social media but only visit a few times per year. Then, you have to weight these numbers for voter participation. Older Americans who vote at very high percenatges are very found on social media in very low percentages. Conversely, the young adults, under 30, that comprise the bulk of social media, have very low voter turnout.

    A rough estimate is that 30% of voters can be reached on social media. The other 70% are not there and cannot be reached.

    So, you need 50% of everyone just to get to 15% in the pre-debate polling. Unlikely.
    But, you need less than 20% of individuals who watch TV.

    A TV advertising plan designed to win Electoral Votes in target states will earn the free media needed to reach the TV audience everywhere, so it is possible to actually get to 15% in the polls before the debates.

    Well, it was possible.

    Unless the Johnson campaign has a secret plan to roll out a TV blitz in key states in the next few days, their hopes of making the debates will soon fade, and they’ll just slide back down to 25 or 3%.

    There are also special advertising outlets that can add a wild card to such efforts, and yes, the campaign should be aware of all of this, but, well, there’s little hope at this point.

  94. Be Rational

    Why would you assume Johnson would have raised the same amount absent any consulting? – Jim

    *

    I assume they would have raised MORE absent the consulting. Most donors don’t give money when it appears that it’s being looted.

  95. Thomas Knapp

    BR,

    I’m skeptical even of official reports, e.g. FEC disclosures. The 2012 campaign lied by more than $900k in its immediate pre-nomination report and didn’t ‘fess up until nearly a year later. So big grain of salt. And “skeptical” doesn’t even BEGIN to describe my reaction to “Johnson told someone.”

    The campaign may have raised $2.9 million so far in August. Or it may have raised $290k. Or some amount in between. Eventually we may know what the amount really was, but we won’t know that we know because the campaign has a history of lying like a rug.

  96. Jim

    Be Rational “I assume they would have raised MORE absent the consulting. Most donors don’t give money when it appears that it’s being looted.”

    I’m going to guess somewhere around 99% of donors don’t read FEC reports.

  97. Be Rational

    TK,

    Given the lack of disclosure from the campaign, I am also more than skeptical of the campaign reports.

    But, we have nothing else to go on …

    … and without trust, how can we donate?

  98. Be Rational

    Be Rational “I assume they would have raised MORE absent the consulting. Most donors don’t give money when it appears that it’s being looted.”

    I’m going to guess somewhere around 99% of donors don’t read FEC reports. – Jim

    *

    True.

    But donors do look for some reason, some activity, some purpose to give for.

    The Johnson campaign is donig NOTHING with the money but pay themselves and some minor expenses.

    They should have started a TV advertising plan the week after the convention at the latest.

  99. George Phillies

    “Older Americans who vote at very high percentages are very found on social media in very low percentages. Conversely, the young adults, under 30, that comprise the bulk of social media, have very low voter turnout.”

    Voters change their political alignments perhaps twice in their lifetimes. The most reliable predictor of alignment, most but not all of the time, is the political alignment of the voter’s parents. Pursuing old people is unlikely to be a good investment at this time.

  100. Jim

    The campaign was active. They did a ton of interviews in the weeks following the convention. Multiple interviews a day, everyday. Lots of travel. Scheduling the events and planning the travel schedule fall under “consulting.” And they began producing youtube videos, presumably which were used as testing for the imminent ad campaign. All the creative hours put in to designing the ads should also fall under consulting.

    Potential donors saw them on TV and/or saw the youtube videos.

  101. Joseph Buchman

    Be Rational @ August 22, 2016 at 13:53

    “and without trust, how can we donate?”

    I’d suggest giving to the LP party directly or to the AMERICANS DESERVE BETTER PAC (http://votefortheadults.com) — they are totally transparent and other than credit card processing fees, 100 percent of your donation goes to advertising. There are zero paid consultants, zero staff, zero rent (other than for a PO Box). Kinda the polar opposite of what traditional campaigns do (not just GJ2016, but Browne, and even Ron Paul in 1988).

  102. Be Rational

    “Voters change their political alignments perhaps twice in their lifetimes. The most reliable predictor of alignment, most but not all of the time, is the political alignment of the voter’s parents. Pursuing old people is unlikely to be a good investment at this time.” – GP

    *

    As a long-term party building strategy the LP should be targeting teenagers and young adults (among other things of course such as ballot status, etc.). This should be done through campus groups and recruiting and extensive use of social media. Absolutely.

    This campaign is about building name recognition, getting in the debates, winning ballot status, and other long-shot goals. They have set a near-term goal of getting 15% in the polls and getting in the debates.

    This campaign is not about long-term party building as its primary goal. Perhaps it should have been and perhaps different candidates would have been preferable for that purpose.

  103. Be Rational

    I’d suggest giving to the LP party directly or to the AMERICANS DESERVE BETTER PAC (http://votefortheadults.com) — they are totally transparent and other than credit card processing fees, 100 percent of your donation goes to advertising. There are zero paid consultants, zero staff, zero rent (other than for a PO Box). – Joseph Buchman – August 22, 2016 at 14:41

    *

    How much have they raised?
    Where are they advertising?
    How much are they spending?

    Do they have enough money on hand right now to make a difference before the debates?

    We heard talk of large donations and PACs …
    Where’s the beef?

  104. Joseph Buchman

    Be Rational @ August 22, 2016 at 15:42

    “How much have they raised? Where are they advertising? How much are they spending?”

    Just interviewed Geoff Neale. Your answers are, over $100K, Maine’s second Congressional District, $80K. Based on follow-up polling they will chose the more effective ads and move on.

    You can see their advertisements at:

    http://votefortheadults.com/our-ads

    and read their press releases at:

    http://votefortheadults.com/media

    Also look for an article with the interview with Geoff here on IPR in the next day or two.

  105. Jim

    George Phillies “Where are there Johnson ads on TV?”

    Don’t know. I don’t live in any of the states they said they were targeting and I don’t know if they’ve started, yet. I do know that they have two radio ads done, one of which is the audio of one of their youtube videos, so I’d pick that youtube video to be the favorite for anything they might run on tv.

  106. Thomas Knapp

    Color me less than impressed with McMullin/Better For America. Apparently they’re less well-organized than the Boston Tea Party was in 2008. And we weren’t really that well-organized.

  107. Be Rational

    “How much have they raised? Where are they advertising? How much are they spending?” – BR
    *
    Just interviewed Geoff Neale. Your answers are, over $100K, Maine’s second Congressional District, $80K. Based on follow-up polling they will chose the more effective ads and move on.

    Also look for an article with the interview with Geoff here on IPR in the next day or two.
    – Joseph Buchman

    *

    So, the LP POTUS campaign by way of a single Super PAC has begun an effective campaign in only 1 congressional district out of 435.

    Well, at least that’s a start. It took 45 years to run an effective campaign in 1/435 th of the US – but even that requires continued spending in ME through election day.

    At this rate it should only take about 9,000 years for the LP to be successful. I can hardly wait to see it.

  108. Thane Eichenauer

    I admit it. I used my preferred search engine, clicked news, searched for “blood-drinking” and found the following news article from the Miami New Times…

    “Gun Advocates and Blood-Drinking Libertarian Plan March to “Impeach” Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla”

    “Now, some of those advocates are planning a march outside Diaz de la Portilla’s Coral Gables house — and they’re taking along noted goat-blood-drinking Libertarian candidate Augustus Sol Invictus.”

    http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/gun-advocates-and-blood-drinking-libertarian-plan-march-to-impeach-sen-miguel-diaz-de-la-portilla-8715843

  109. Jim

    Matt Kibbe’s Alternative PAC has a very funny ad for a pro-Johnson initiative where Democrats and Republicans are paired together when they vote for Johnson so they can feel comfortable that they aren’t giving the more hated candidate an advantage because each side is canceling out a vote from the other.

    http://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2016/08/26/hilarious-accurate-ad-gary-johnson-vote-best-political-ad-ever/

    Ed Crane’s Purple PAC says it is doing a 10 day, $1 million TV ad buy beginning 8/26. r/GaryJohnson says they have seen the ads on CNN and FOX.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/25/super-pac-goes-on-the-air-for-gary-johnson-as-he-struggles-for-debate-access/

    The Johnson campaign has a $1 million radio and digital billboard ad buy which has already begun in Oregon, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/gary-johnson-ads-battleground-states-227459

  110. Jim

    That Abe Lincoln “Balanced Rebellion” video has 7.7 million views on Facebook since 9 PM August 25. So that seems like a pretty good number. It was 3.5 million at this time yesterday.

  111. George Phillies

    BR: The Campus approach has been beaten to death for two generations now, and it does not work. The LNC should stop wasting money on it until a new approach is found.

    If the campaign is not trying to expand and strengthen our party, it is a total waste of money.

    People who think Johnson actually has a chance of winning, barring a black swan event that is not now a guess on the horizon, do not to me appear to be right in the head.

  112. Andy

    I agree with George here. If the presidential campaign is not promoting a solid libertarian message, and if it is not promoting the brand and building the party, then it is a wasted opportunity, and a waste of money.

  113. Be Rational

    There is no “campus approach” but rather a need to establish, coordinate with, and maintain LP or libertarian groups on as many college and university campuses as possible, and H.S. campuses when there is interest.

    This does work to keep a steady flow of young people coming in to the party. To be successful requires an annual six-figure budget with a national director with an office and several traveling field-coordinators. It requires constant training and recruitment on the campuses, with intensive pre-planning and outreach at the beginning of each new school year.

    The movement had a highly effective campus outreach organization and hundreds of groups through the early 80s.

    A successful campus outreach program is essential for a long-term winning Libertarian strategy, even if it’s only a small part of what we need to do.

  114. Be Rational

    Expecting a POTUS campaign to start from scratch and build a “campus movement” every four years is NOT a good strategy; it’s just scrambling after crumbs when you come too late for supper.

  115. langa

    That Abe Lincoln “Balanced Rebellion” video…

    Am I the only one who sees the irony in the Libertarian Party ticket promoting an “endorsement” from arguably the least libertarian President ever?

  116. langa

    At least the fake Abe Lincoln in the video said, “I’m no libertarian.” That’s one more true statement than the real “Honest Abe” ever made.

  117. Jim

    langa “Am I the only one who sees the irony in the Libertarian Party ticket promoting an “endorsement” from arguably the least libertarian President ever?”

    It’s a PAC promoting it, not the LP ticket.

    And this is why those who only think about philosophy should have nothing to do with political campaigns. It doesn’t matter at all what YOU think of Lincoln. There’s a reason every single Republican candidate talks about Ronald Reagan even when their policies are polar opposite to Reagan’s.

    It doesn’t matter if people vote for libertarians because they like the candidate’s dog.
    It doesn’t matter if people vote for libertarians because they like the candidate’s hair.
    It doesn’t matter if people vote for libertarians because they think he likes Pokemon Go.

    You can cry all you want that dogs, hair, and Pokemon have nothing to do with Libertarian philosophy. It doesn’t matter. Getting elected is not about winning a philosophical argument. Winning philosophical arguments is a job for in between elections and is limited to the 10% – 20% of the voting population that actually pays attention in between elections. Elections are about making people think they already agree with you more than they agree with the other candidates.

    It matters that the libertarian candidate acts like a libertarian in office. It doesn’t matter that he gets elected because he wears Nike’s or because someone whose only knowledge of Lincoln was that he cut down a cherry tree thought Lincoln would support libertarians.

  118. langa

    Jim, you clearly have no understanding at all about how social change works. It absolutely matters why people vote for LP candidates. You don’t get to a free society (which is supposed to be the goal of the LP) by tricking people who despise libertarian ideas into voting for a “closet libertarian” who, once elected, will then ram peace and freedom down the country’s throat. You have to change minds, so that when people vote for LP candidates, they are voting for them because they are libertarians.

  119. Jim

    “tricking people who despise libertarian ideas into voting for” them implies there was some kind of deception. I never said it was necessary for a candidate to deceive anyone about his positions. I’m saying people often don’t vote on the issues and many of those that do, don’t think as deeply about the issues as you would like them to.

    I know people who vote for Italian candidates because they are Italian and they believe that the candidate will look out for Italians. I know people who vote for black candidates because they are black for the same reason. I know people who are planning to vote for Hillary for no other reason than that they have waited their entire life for a woman to be President. I know people who despise every position Trump has, but are voting for him because of loyalty to the Republican party. The issues are entirely irrelevant to these people.

    OTOH, I watched a video yesterday of Frank Luntz asking a random man on the street 3 questions:

    Luntz: Does the government spend too much or too little on social programs for illegal immigrants in this country?

    Man: I think they spend too much on programs for illegal immigrants.

    Luntz: Would you deny emergency room care to an illegal immigrant?

    Man: No, I wouldn’t.

    Luntz: Would you deny the children of illegal immigrants the ability to attend a public school here?

    Man: No, I wouldn’t.

    Luntz: So you’d spend money on healthcare for them and you’d spend money on education for them, but you think we’re spending too much money on them?

    Man: Yeah, I do…

    That guy has absolutely no idea what he wants, but that’s as deeply as most people who believe they are voting on the issues will think. So the Republican candidate will make the case for non-specific spending cuts and the Democratic candidate will make the case for specific funding and whichever candidate has the best messaging will get that guy’s vote. And the Libertarian candidate who argues with him that the government should stop spending on healthcare for everyone, illegal or not, because it distorts free market mechanics won’t.

    So if people have generally good feelings about Abe Lincoln a candidate should feel free to associate with Abe Lincoln, as long as they aren’t pushing Abe Lincoln’s policies. Because people don’t know jack shit about the National Bank Act of 1863 and that’s how elections are won. Or, you can not do that, get 0.5% of the vote, and accomplish nothing for 45 years.

  120. langa

    “tricking people who despise libertarian ideas into voting for” them implies there was some kind of deception.

    And your earlier statements (e.g. “Elections are about making people think they already agree with you more than they agree with the other candidates”) don’t involve deception?

    So the Republican candidate will make the case for non-specific spending cuts and the Democratic candidate will make the case for specific funding and whichever candidate has the best messaging will get that guy’s vote.

    The Democrats and Republicans are the reason we’re in the mess we’re in, and the “to hell with principles, just do whatever it takes to win the election” mindset is a big part of that. So why should we seek to emulate them? And even in the snowball’s-chance-in-hell scenario where Johnson and Weld got elected, what makes you think they would govern any differently than they have campaigned? In other words, if they are scared to promote “controversial” policies during the election, wouldn’t they also be scared to enact those same policies, for fear of not getting re-elected?

  121. Jim

    “your earlier statements (e.g. “Elections are about making people think they already agree with you more than they agree with the other candidates”) don’t involve deception?”

    No deception. As in my example with the social programs for illegals, the guy will agree with either side, depending on how the message is presented. LP candidates need to phrase the message in a way in which people will agree with them.

    “The Democrats and Republicans are the reason we’re in the mess we’re in, and the “to hell with principles, just do whatever it takes to win the election” mindset is a big part of that….”

    I never suggested abandoning principles. In fact, I specifically said that they should not do the things Abe Lincoln did.

    “what makes you think they would govern any differently than they have campaigned? In other words, if they are scared to promote “controversial” policies during the election, wouldn’t they also be scared to enact those same policies, for fear of not getting re-elected?”

    I think everyone understands that, unless the country is doing really, really well, they’re one-and-done. There’s almost no chance of two candidates as unpopular as Clinton and Trump facing off twice in a row. As Johnson has said repeatedly, he felt more comfortable pushing as hard as he could in his 2nd term as Governor knowing that there was never going to be a 3rd. That said, I don’t think they will govern any differently than they have campaigned, which is more libertarian than any President than we have had in a century.

  122. Thomas Knapp

    langa,

    You’re trying to impose ideology and history on something that’s neither. Lincoln is popular mythology and has been since a few hours after the commotion at Ford’s Theater.

    Most people think of one thing, and one thing only, when they see a representation of Lincoln: “Freed the slaves.” Period.

    It’s a humorous ad, not a fucking platform committee report.

  123. langa

    All you guys who love the Lincoln ad, would you be just as happy if they had used FDR? He’s a very popular former President. Sure, he’s arguably even less libertarian than Lincoln, but so what? You guys claim that doesn’t matter. After all, when the average uninformed rube thinks of FDR, they just think, “Hey, he was the guy who ended the Great Depression.” So why not use him?

    Hell, there are a lot of popular former Presidents. Why not Jefferson? He’s not only popular, but he’s someone that the public actually thinks of as a libertarian. (For the record, I don’t think he was nearly as good from a libertarian point of view as he is usually portrayed, but he was a hell of a lot more libertarian than Lincoln.)

  124. Thomas Knapp

    Well, I wouldn’t say I “love” the Lincoln ad, but:

    “[W]hen the average uninformed rube thinks of FDR, they just think ‘isn’t than an expressway in New York City?'”

    There, fixed that for ya.

  125. langa

    Your 10th grade history teacher didn’t hammer into your head about how the great FDR “fixed” the Depression? Mine sure did, and I came from a very red part of a very red state. He’s just like Lincoln — universally worshiped by statists of all stripes.

  126. Thomas L. Knapp

    langa,

    I don’t recall any of my high school history classes ever getting further along than the Civil War, so no, none of my teachers had anything to say about FDR.

    My grandmother, however, did. She was convinced that he sits on the left hand of God in heaven (since Jesus already took the seat on the right).

    Thing is, my grandmother has been dead for decades, as have most other people who have any real idea who FDR was. Hell, I’ve had people my age (I’ll be 50 soon) look at me quizzically when I say “LBJ.”

  127. Thomas L. Knapp

    ORS § 162.305

    Tampering with public records

    (1) A person commits the crime of tampering with public records if, without lawful authority, the person knowingly destroys, mutilates, conceals, removes, MAKES A FALSE ENTRY IN [emphasis mine] or falsely alters any public record, including records relating to the Oregon State Lottery.

    It’s a class A misdemeanor. If I’m not mistaken, maximum of one year in jail. How many counts so far?

  128. steve m

    About the Lincoln add.

    1) it was made by the Harmon Brothers who have a reputation for making off the wall videos
    http://theharmonbrothers.com/

    2) it was sponsored by Alternative PAC which supports Johnson but is not affiliated with Johnson/Weld 2016. Alternative PAC lists John Guido as its treasurer and was sitting on a little over half a million as of the end of July. alternativepac.us

    PACs can not coordinate with campaign committees

    so love it or hate it …. the credit or blame belongs to the PAC

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