3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . . Will Johnson/Weld Fall Below 4 Percent?

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With recent polls, including ABC News (3 percent), Real Clear Politics (4.6) and Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight (4.7) indicating/forecasting a below 5 percent national vote total for Johnson/Weld one week from today – the result of a fairly consistent drop of about 1/10th  of 1 percent daily for the past few weeks, and with that decline appearing likely to continue, or even increase in magnitude, IPR is opening the doors to the more psychic or reckless of our readers to put your predictions in public.

The reader who posts the most accurate vote total prediction (once the dust has settled) wins his/her choice of one of the following:  A Gary Johnson 2012 LIVE FREE T-shirt, a “Polygamy Porter – I’ve tried polygamy” mouse pad, or an Evan McMullin yard sign (courtesy of the author of this article, assuming I can snag one of neighbor’s on Nov 9th).

I’m already a declared 4.97 percent of the national vote total (but it seems now that may have been high)  for J/W.  While other readers are not bound by any earlier predictions, I’ll stick with mine.

So, who has the hot crystal ball?  (And (ducking) where is Wayne Allyn Root when you (sorta) need him?)

54 thoughts on “3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . . Will Johnson/Weld Fall Below 4 Percent?

  1. paulie

    One half of the polling average a week before the election seems to be the historic norm, so I’ll go with 2%. That assumes Weld does not go full out openly and unambiguously stumping for Clinton (as opposed to a mirror image of Root’s quasi-deniable endorsement of Romney before the more explicit one). If Weld openly endorses Clinton, I think 1% will be more like it.

    where is Wayne Allyn Root when you (sorta) need him?

    Opening for Trump at one or more rallies.

  2. Thomas Knapp

    2.3%.

    Whatever the outcome, keep in mind that the actions of the candidates are far from the sole factor. In fact, given the sheer force of the “wasted vote” campaign this time, anything above the usual 1/2 of 1% for a Libertarian ticket is an earned bonus, and in fact Johnson HAS worked hard to earn that bonus.

  3. Joe Wendt

    I’m thinking Johnson will be 3.2-3.5% nationally.

    I’m also predicting that Rocky de la Fuente will do much better than Johnson in Florida. (Rocky has put in more time and money advertising in Florida).

  4. Anthony Dlugos

    “I’m also predicting that Rocky de la Fuente will do much better than Johnson in Florida.”

    I’ll take that bet.

    Stakes?

  5. Anthony Dlugos

    You have a bet!

    Although if I win, it’ll have to be a regular coke. Artificial sweeteners can give me migraines.

  6. Anthony Dlugos

    Pabst?

    I don’t drink beer made at breweries that sell more than 1 million barrels per year.

  7. Thomas Knapp

    Anthony,

    Think of PBR as something that beer drinkers drink when we’re not drinking beer. It’s a gentle brew, much like making love in a canoe (i.e. it’s fucking close to water).

  8. Anthony Dlugos

    I’ll concede your point; if I am at a location where there are no craftbrew options, Pabst is my go-to swill.

    But I’m a Belgian beer aficionado.

  9. Thomas Knapp

    I used to occasionally indulge in Chimay Red back in the bad old days before American craft beer took off, when the only way to get decent beer was to go to the section marked “Imports.”

    But frankly the old Belgians (as opposed to New Belgium — I love Fat Tire) ruined decent wheat beers with the orange and coriander and so forth. I’ll take an American Bouleveard Wheat or Witmer Brothers unfiltered wheat, or a German Paulaner hefeweizen over that Belgian crap any day of the week.

  10. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    KFI-AM’s John and Ken Show just reported that Johnson is at 3%, Stein at 2%.

    So Johnson’s support is falling, while Stein is holding steady. She’s been at 2% for a while.

    As I predicted, Stein might actually beat Johnson on November.

  11. paulie

    I see that as likely if Weld goes for an all out unambiguous endorsement of Clinton. Otherwise, I think Johnson will still come in ahead of Stein.

  12. Thomas Knapp

    I thought early on that Stein might beat Johnson, but that looks like a bit of a long shot now.

    On the other hand, the vote differential between Stein and Johnson is going to be a lot smaller than one would expect given the media coverage and fundraising differentials.

    As of September 30th, Johnson/Weld had raised $11.2 million versus Stein’s $3.5 million — 3.2 times as much. And the media differential is probably an order of magnitude bigger than that. Johnson and Weld got all kinds of coverage because the media thought they hurt Trump. Stein got the bare minimum the media could get away with giving her because they thought she hurt Clinton.

    Does anyone think, at this point, that Johnson will get 3.x times as many votes as Stein?

  13. Anthony Dlugos

    You’d have to give me odds to make me take a “Johnson 3x Stein” bet.

    Not a lot of odds. Maybe 2-1.

  14. Stewart Flood

    I’ll go with 2.9%, but I think South Carolina will beat the spread by a half, coming in at 3.3-3.4%

  15. Matt

    If Weld keeps pushing Clinton he may yet get Stein to come in third. Weld is a disgrace and a self-inflicted wound on the LP.

  16. Losty

    Paulie,

    1. Nobody needs to know where Root is… Or Barr… Or Johnson

    2. Bill just did it again. He did not say a person in NC should vote HRC, But he spoke up for her, said the GJ statement with his picture is not his opinion, and said basically that voter should make up their own mind.

    2.4,

  17. paulie

    Bill just did it again.

    Yes, I saw. Biting the LP in the ass yet again. Well, fool us once, fool us twice, etc. Trying to find the video now.

  18. Matt

    “No, Johnson is the self-inflicted wound. Weld is the infection that followed.”

    Good point.

  19. losty

    Paulie,

    maybe you’re misreading me.

    He may be saving the republic and at the same time in the non-competitive states upping GJ’s count.

  20. Joseph Buchman Post author

    I’m going to keep the betting window open until around noon mountain time tomorrow (about 15 more hours). Then we can lock this down.

    Here’s what I have so far:

    Joseph Buchman 4.97
    Joe Wendt 3.35 (the mean of your range)
    D. Frank Robinson 3.17
    Stewart Flood 2.9
    Anthony Dlugos 2.89
    Jeremy Young 2.7
    Losty 2.4
    Thomas Knapp 2.3
    Paulie 2.0
    William Saturn 1.5 (with a bonus because this was his September 2016 public announcement)

    OTHER MARKETS –
    Root’s Teeth Are Awesome – “Stein beats Johnson in the national popular vote.”

    How about this one — what are the odds that Governor Weld repudiates the Libertarian Party and openly endorses Hillary Clinton for President on ALL the major talk shows this weekend?

    I gather he is quite angry about the campaign issuing a statement as if HE said it, when he was not even given copy approval.

    Any linguists out there who can compare the campaign’s Weld statement (published here on IPR) with Weld’s writing style vs Joe Hunter’s?

    http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/10/governor-bill-weld-responds-to-democrat-spin-machine/

  21. paulie

    I gather he is quite angry about the campaign issuing a statement as if HE said it, when he was not even given copy approval.

    Any linguists out there who can compare the campaign’s Weld statement (published here on IPR) with Weld’s writing style vs Joe Hunter’s?

    http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/10/governor-bill-weld-responds-to-democrat-spin-machine/

    My mistake, I corrected my article. That’s what I thought I heard with the TV playing while I typed on the computer. But on watching the video again the reference is actually to https://www.johnsonweld.com/gov_gary_johnson_statement_on_the_reopening_of_fbi_investigation_into_hillary_clinton

    Which is more a statement from Johnson and the campaign as a whole, but uses Weld’s picture to imply he is on board with it. He made it clear he is not.

  22. Jill Pyeatt

    Even though I won’t vote for Gary, I think he might surprise us. I’ll guess 5.2.

    I also expect the next week will bring more Hillary revelations, which is why I’m estimating a little high on Johnson. I think Hillary will lose lots of support before election day.

  23. Austin Cassidy

    I’ll take 2.75% — beating out Nader 2000 by 0.01%.

    That’s my hope anyway.

    I think Stein finishes around 1%, which is over a million votes. Her total might be influenced by how quickly election night produces a winner. If Hillary Clinton is winning in a blow-out by 7:30 or 8:00pm Eastern time, I’d think that would help Stein in Western states that are still voting.

  24. George Whitfield

    At the risk of sounding overly optimistic, I estimate that Johnson and Weld will get 5.01% of the popular vote for President/Vice President.

  25. Losty

    I can’t tell you how much i wish Weld would say vote for her…

    There are Moderate small l Libs and Reps that would run to her…

    However, I can’t make that call (Damn).. No action.

  26. José C

    I think Gary Johnson will receive 4.3% of the vote. And history will be made when McMullin wins Utah. It will be close. McMullin will win or lose Utah by 3%. If he wins Utah what color will the networks select for Utah. I am betting yellow.

  27. Joseph Buchman Post author

    Paulie,

    I’ve heard from various sources that “the campaign” has put out quite a few things under Weld’s name that he did not have copy approval over and is upset about – beyond what was uncovered by Maddow.

  28. Joseph Buchman Post author

    12 more hours or so to get your predictions in/revise your estimates/let me know if I made any typos

    So far I have . . .

    Jill Pyeatt 5.2
    George Whitfield 5.01
    Joseph Buchman 4.97
    Jose C 4.3
    Joe Wendt 3.35 (the mean of your range)
    D. Frank Robinson 3.17
    Stewart Flood 2.9
    Anthony Dlugos 2.89
    Austin Cassidy 2.75
    Jeremy Young 2.7
    Losty 2.4
    Thomas Knapp 2.3
    Paulie 2.0
    Don Wills 1.6
    William Saturn 1.5 (with a bonus because this was his September 2016 public prediction)

  29. Thomas Knapp

    Quoth Joseph:

    “How about this one — what are the odds that Governor Weld repudiates the Libertarian Party and openly endorses Hillary Clinton for President on ALL the major talk shows this weekend?”

    Well, in order to do that he would first have to get BOOKED on all the major talk shows this weekend — “The Full Ginsburg,” so named after Monica Lewinsky’s attorney, the first one to do it.

    I did hear the rumor earlier this week that he is so booked, but I’m not sure how credible that rumor is. What I will say is that I doubt if he could get booked on all five shows unless he has at least one, maybe both, of two things:

    1) A bomb that the producers know he’ll be dropping; or

    2) A sponsor with enough media mojo to swing it for him with or without disclosure of said bomb (he doesn’t carry that kind of weight himself and neither does the Johnson campaign).

    Reverse-engineering those two criteria, I would say that IF he is booked on the Sunday shows, it’s almost certainly because the Clinton campaign got him booked on those shows, expecting whatever he says to be helpful to them.

    Of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates this year, two of them have done The Full Ginsburg: Hillary Clinton back when she was running for Senate, and Tim Kaine this September.

  30. paulie

    I can’t tell you how much i wish Weld would say vote for her…

    There are Moderate small l Libs and Reps that would run to her…

    In addition to doing a great deal to destroy the long term brand of the LP, that would probably help Trump more than Clinton. The people choosing between Johnson and Clinton have for the most part already drifted back to Clinton or are well on their way to doing so. Now Weld is working on getting about half or so of the remaining 2% that would still vote for Johnson if Weld doesn’t go further down this path to vote for Trump rather than Johnson, since they will come to see Johnson/Weld as Clinton shills. It’s true that a few have already done so, but Weld is only helping to greatly accelerate that process.

  31. paulie

    Paulie 2.0

    Paulie 2.0 is a scary thought. But again, that’s only if Weld is not all over the TV between now and then explicitly endorsing Clinton. That will knock it down to 1% or possibly lower.

  32. paulie

    I’ve heard from various sources that “the campaign” has put out quite a few things under Weld’s name that he did not have copy approval over and is upset about – beyond what was uncovered by Maddow.

    Fair enough.

  33. NewFederalist

    “12 more hours or so to get your predictions in/revise your estimates/let me know if I made any typos.” – Joseph Buchman

    I boldly predict the governators will lose. I further predict the LP will fail to win any seats in Congress. I think the Welded Johnson ticket will beat Ed Clark’s 1980 percentage but not by much. I think there will be ample despair and disgust for all! Have a nice day! 😉

  34. Austin Cassidy

    Watched the Johnson rally in Atlanta tonight, he seems in good spirits and the crowd was clearly pumped up. I’m cautiously optimistic again, as long as Bill Weld STOPS this televised apology tour now.

    This was bad and infuriating, but I’m not convinced he reached all that many people. The Dems and Republicans are slinging so much mud at each other, it has largely slipped up the radar.

    If Weld does go on the Sunday shows and repeats this whole act, it’ll be catastrophic.

    And it only HELPS elect Donald Trump because Libertarian voters are anti-establishment voters… very few consider Hillary Clinton their second choice. Defending Hillary just drives those Trump-leaners back to the GOP.

    Utterly stupid and counter-productive.

  35. Joseph Buchman Post author

    Liberman made the pool. Predictions are locked. Prizes are being held in an Al Gore LOCKBOX (or in the neighbor’s lawn) until Tuesday.

    Final predictions:

    Jill Pyeatt 5.2
    George Whitfield 5.01
    Joseph Buchman 4.97
    Jose C 4.3
    Scott Liberman 3.824
    Joe Wendt 3.35 (the mean of your range)
    D. Frank Robinson 3.17
    Stewart Flood 2.9
    Anthony Dlugos 2.89
    Austin Cassidy 2.75
    Jeremy Young 2.7
    Losty 2.4
    Thomas Knapp 2.3
    Paulie 2.0
    Don Wills 1.6
    William Saturn 1.5 (with a bonus because this was his September 2016 public prediction)

    I’m thinking my 4.97 is way too high now, maybe by half, but I’m not really interested in any of the prizes, so I’ll leave it where it is.

    At this time back in 2012 I received my ONLY phone call from the Governor (We’d been on weekly conference calls with down ticket candidates, but this was the first time he reached out to me). He was quite upset that my prediction for 2012 was 1,776,000 votes – missing, apparently, the symbolism of that number (I’d felt it was high given the markets on some social wagering site (don’t remember the name) where anyone could wager on almost anything that wasn’t pure chance?? What was that site called).

    Anyway Gary called from a plane or airport somewhere to let me know I was hurting his efforts by being so pessimistic! He was 100 percent confident he was going to get 5 percent or more of the vote 4 years ago.

    He was a gracious host, I fear he feels betrayed by me and others, but I will not, never, ever, never work with or for Ron Nielson again. We just don’t share the same management philosophy. (And I’d not likely be saying that if I’d signed a lifetime non-disparagement clause!) 🙂 He has sued at least two of his former candidates (Green and Cook) and at least one of his former staff . . .

    So, my new prediction for WeldedtoJohnson2016 – 1,776,000 votes.

    And after that, zero, zip, nada, for POTUS, in 2020 in New Orleans, ANYwhere . . .

  36. Chuck Moulton

    I’m still seeking more people who think Johnson will get more than 10% nationwide in the general election. I am willing to bet any amount of money that he will get under 10% vs. anyone I think is credible enough to pay the wager when he loses.

    Full disclosure:
    I have a $100 bet and a $1 bet vs. 2 LP activists that Gary Johnson will get less than 10% of the vote nationwide this election and I have a $750 bet vs. a chess friend that Donald Trump will not be elected President this election (all bets are even money).

  37. Joe

    The WINNER was/is JOE WENDT.

    Jill Pyeatt 5.2
    George Whitfield 5.01
    Joseph Buchman 4.97
    Jose C 4.3
    Scott Liberman 3.824
    Joe Wendt 3.35 (the mean of your range)

    ACTUAL VOTE 3.28 PERCENT

    D. Frank Robinson 3.17
    Stewart Flood 2.9
    Anthony Dlugos 2.89
    Austin Cassidy 2.75
    Jeremy Young 2.7
    Losty 2.4
    Thomas Knapp 2.3
    Paulie 2.0
    Don Wills 1.6
    William Saturn 1.5 (with a bonus because this was his September 2016 public prediction)

  38. Matt

    The actual result is still being counted, as some states are still counting absentee votes and even precincts.

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