John Kasich denies reports he is considering Independent run in 2020

Ballot Access News:

On Sunday, August 27, Ohio Governor John Kasich was on “Meet the Press”, where he denied that he will run for president as an independent in 2020. Thanks to Political Wire for this news.

Previously at IPR

33 thoughts on “John Kasich denies reports he is considering Independent run in 2020

  1. Anthony Dlugos

    Remember, he took the step of neither supporting Trump at the GOP Convention (just about everyone) here in Cleveland, nor standing up at the Convention to denounce him. (Cruz). He said he was busy with other things.

    That would be the proper tactic for someone considering a (not-so) independent run.

  2. Anthony Dlugos

    As I don’t need to tell you, but the article you linked points out: the process of getting on the ballot, let alone governing, from outside the two-party system is incredibly hard.

    But that’s a double-edged sword as long as we’re patient: once the electorate moves in our direction, the dinosaur parties will simply be too ossified to capture that movement, and the barriers they spent decades putting up will become our friends and their undoing.

  3. robert capozzi

    Were I Kasich, I’d be thinking about the R nomination first, depending on how things are shaping up in late 2018. If somehow Trump were to run for a second term, the idea of pulling a Ted Kennedy 1980-type run against a sitting president of his own party is probably suicidal. In that case, he might change his mind and go independent.

  4. Anthony Dlugos

    “Were I Kasich, I’d be thinking about the R nomination first…”

    I agree. Given Trump’s pathetic performance, I can’t imagine an independent run making more sense than a direct play for the GOP nomination.

    Unless the GOP takes an even more alarming turn to the nationalist/populist, a turn that makes recovery from those depths unlikely.

  5. paulie

    Drumpf is already announced for 2020 and already holding campaign rallies. He isn’t likely to drop out unless he is forced from office. Which might happen, especially if the Democrats take Congress in 2018, but still probably has the odds against it. I usually tend to be more optimistic, but at this point I rate either Drumpf starting a global nuclear war and getting us all killed, or Drumpf taking advantage of a real or manufactured crisis to call off the 2020 election more likely than: either Drumpf voluntarily choosing to not seek another term, Drumpf being removed from office by impeachment or coup or 25th amendment remedy, or Drumpf being defeated for the nomination.

  6. paulie

    As I don’t need to tell you, but the article you linked points out: the process of getting on the ballot, let alone governing, from outside the two-party system is incredibly hard.

    I think Americans Elect demonstrated that with money it’s not impossible. The only reason they failed to get on the ballot in the remaining few states was because they had to get a candidate to do it, and no one of the caliber they wanted to run agreed to do it in the end even though many of them flirted with the idea. Kasich would also have to make the same calculation since if he pulls the trigger on a non-duopoly run he would lose a lot of Republican friends and any prospect of running as a Republican again, or at least for a long time. Since presumably the impact he would make in the election would be bigger than Paul ’88 the anger against him by Republicans would also likely be bigger.

    But that’s a double-edged sword as long as we’re patient: once the electorate moves in our direction, the dinosaur parties will simply be too ossified to capture that movement,

    They haven’t been too ossified to capture many past changes in national mood.

    and the barriers they spent decades putting up will become our friends and their undoing.

    Barriers can be overcome through compliance, lowered through the legislatures and the courts, or selectively ignored in aspects of enforcement ranging from turn-in dates to validity checking to what have you. I don’t think they are insurmountable for a campaign with money, for example Perot or Americans Elect.

  7. Jim Polichak

    Kasich would have a serious shot at the GOP nomination should Trump continue on his pathological, bewildered, racist, pseudo-conservative, pseudo-populist self-serving ways if Kasich can tie Pence tightly to the quagmire that exists in the White House.
    If the Republicans remove Trump at least a year before the 2020 election Pence has a chance of being the “white knight” that saves us from ruin – at least in the minds of those who will decided the GOP nod.
    If the Republicans stick by Trump and allow him to control the destiny of the Party they might go the way of the Whigs when principled men abandoned the Whigs and formed the Republican Party of Lincoln. Remember, Lincoln was a Whig when he served in Congress.

  8. Tony From Long Island

    Republicans have to be careful not to have TOO MANY people challenge Drumpf. The only reason Darth Trump was nominated was because 15 people split 75% of the votes in the early primaries.

    If he is challenged by one, maybe two, there is a strong change he will be defeated and the world can be right again 🙂

  9. Tony From Long Island

    Jim: Pence is an incredibly rigid ideologue, but I’d prefer an ideologue I disagree with than an unstable narcissist.

  10. Anthony Dlugos

    “They haven’t been too ossified to capture many past changes in national mood.”

    It can’t and won’t last forever. They are bleeding support like a stuck pig, and they’re both quickly getting to the point where trying to recapture lost support will piss off current factions. Which is why their strategy has been to suppress competition.

    It can’t and won’t last forever.

  11. paulie

    trying to recapture lost support will piss off current factions.

    They’ll trade some constituencies. For example, at the moment it looks likely that the Republicans will gain among blue-collar whites, many of whom had been voting for Democrats up until now. In exchange they will lose a lot of “country club” and “kinda sorta soft libertarianish” Republicans. As the employer class, these relatively well off voters may find it to be more in their interests to ally with non-white voters together as Democrats in order to leave their choices as employers relatively less restricted, while at the same time avoiding harsh crackdowns on drugs, protesters, sexual commerce and expression, etc.

  12. robert capozzi

    pf: [Trump] isn’t likely to drop out unless he is forced from office.

    me: Oh, I don’t know about that. Dude’s 71 and not in great shape. He could easily be going through the motions to maximize his power while in office, as opposed to being a lame duck for much of his Admin.

    Assuming he doesn’t get impeached, he drops out in 2019 for health reasons would be far more likely.

  13. paulie

    Oh, I don’t know about that. Dude’s 71 and not in great shape. He could easily be going through the motions to maximize his power while in office, as opposed to being a lame duck for much of his Admin.

    Assuming he doesn’t get impeached, he drops out in 2019 for health reasons would be far more likely.

    I don’t see that as likely. Love him or hate him, the man’s a fighter. He is not going to let a little things like age or disease bring him down. He is never even going to acknowledge that he has a problem, ever. He will keep saying he is the healthiest president ever, if not the healthiest human being who ever walked the earth, until the day he turns from orange to blue.

  14. Anthony Dlugos

    paulie,

    “They’ll trade some constituencies. For example, at the moment it looks likely that the Republicans will gain among blue-collar whites, many of whom had been voting for Democrats up until now. In exchange they will lose a lot of “country club” and “kinda sorta soft libertarianish” Republicans.”

    I wont argue you’re analysis, but there’s leakage going on here. Each exchange loses a fraction of citizens to independence. The dinosaur parties are getting smaller and smaller. Their ships are taking on water. They can’t stop the inevitable.

  15. paulie

    Each exchange loses a fraction of citizens to independence. The dinosaur parties are getting smaller and smaller. Their ships are taking on water.

    Hopefully you are correct!

  16. Anthony Dlugos

    RCapozzi,

    “Assuming he doesn’t get impeached, he drops out in 2019 for health reasons would be far more likely.”

    With you again, here.

    My guess, which I put on the record not long after Trump won and which I’ll put on the record here, is that he will limp to 2019, declare victory, and not run again.

    Then, he will go back to Hollywood, and host a reality show, The Apprentice: Public Service Edition, where he will spend 12 weeks or so pairing down a cast of dopes into one person who gets to run for some Podunk office that the show will spring for the filing fee for. At this point, Trump will have exactly what he wanted out of the presidency: a makeup chair, doting female makeup artists he can p*ssy grab, and the fantasyland of Hollywood where he gets to pontificate to a bunch of idiots looking to become famous.

  17. paulie

    At this point, Trump will have exactly what he wanted out of the presidency: a makeup chair, doting female makeup artists he can p*ssy grab, and the fantasyland of Hollywood where he gets to pontificate to a bunch of idiots looking to become famous.

    He had all that pre-presidency. I think he wanted more than that.

  18. robert capozzi

    pf,

    I agree DJT is a fighter. But, I suspect and kinda hope that the stress of the job will be too much for his health. Living such big lies would sap anyone. He looks increasingly ill to me in just 6 short months.

    If he stays on this path, and he somehow maintains enough health to run in 2020, the very rare primary challenge of a sitting president may well be viable. Kasich and others might well be viable against Trump in 2020, which is normally not the case. Trump is alienating most in the GOP already.

    If anything, Trump himself might run as an independent, in a semi-Bull Moose situation.

  19. Anthony Dlugos

    “He had all that pre-presidency. I think he wanted more than that.”

    He did. That’s the Greek mythology aspect of this whole thing. He imprisoned himself. Howard Stern himself said he knows the guy, and he knows he is miserable. Any chance he can get to declare victory and get out, he will.

  20. Anthony Dlugos

    Intriguing article that was linked somewhere in that article paulie posted at 12:32:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/04/what-does-moderate-mean-in-the-trump-era/522642/

    “Indeed, it appears many of the grassroots-level Republicans surveyed for the paper—the kind of people who make small-dollar donations to candidates, volunteer for phone banks, and staff local campaigns—believed that the more loyal a senator was to Trump, the more conservative he was.”

    “This could be an early signal that Trump-style nationalism is supplanting old-school conservatism as the Republican Party’s dominant ideology…But the paper’s findings could have political implications that extend far beyond diction, Noel told me. This could be an early signal that Trump-style nationalism is supplanting old-school conservatism as the Republican Party’s dominant ideology…If Trump is shaping and changing the next generation of Republican foot soldiers to think of conservatism as what he thinks it is … instead of what Paul Ryan thinks it is, he’s going to lead the party in that direction,” Noel said.”

  21. Tony From Long Island

    RC

    I agree DJT is a fighter. But, I suspect and kinda hope that the stress of the job will be too much for his health.

    I think that stress thing only really affects people who know what the hell they are doing. Plus a narcissist can’t really feel the stress of having the fate of the world at his fingertips. It would involve empathy.

  22. Austin Cassidy

    Ironically, today’s Republican Party seems to have a lot in common with “post-war” Iraq of a decade ago.

    The GOP is a failed state, with three pretty distinct major factions and several other splinters. The standard conservatives and establishment-types are still dizzy from getting their heads kicked in by the populist/nationalist elements of the party. Religious conservatives are not being well-served by either segment and there’s a lot of dissatisfaction among the Christian “true believers” at the foot soldier level.

    Someone like Roy Moore, who appears set to become a U.S. Senator, could easily carve out a chunk of the party by running in 2020.

    Obviously the Mike Pence pick helped hold the party together for 2016, he had appeal to both the religious and establishment wings of the party. But I’m not sure that works again.

    I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that whatever major faction doesn’t capture the nomination in 2020 is likely to take their toys and go.

    If I were Kasich, I’d work over the next 2-3 years to build out a framework of a new party, existing within the Republican Party, that would be ready to splinter in 2020. That would be the smart contingency plan assuming he’s unable to capture the GOP nomination from Trump or whoever Trump designates as his heir.

    I suspect he’d use the name Unity Party or something similarly positive and generic sounding. If 40 members of Congress and a dozen Senators and Governors followed him out the door, it would lend a lot of credibility. Stir in a few hundred million of establishment Republican donor dollars and it could be interesting.

    Or maybe this is all fantasy and 2020 will come down to Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden after Trump promotes himself to a newly created President Emeritus position from which he can continue making America great again without having to sit through any more boring security briefings. lol

  23. paulie

    Drumpf’s New York values and pussy grabbing turn out to have been OK with Roy Moore’s fundamentalist base in Alabama. Drumpf is wildly popular with them. It’s all about shared enemies: Mexicans, Muslims, liberal media, diversity, multicultalism…. I don’t see much of a split there.

    As for the Kasich-Hickenloopers of the world…they do keep talking about some major independent run, and cycle after cycle it keeps not happening. Then again Drumpf himself was a perpetual gonna-run until he did, so who knows, maybe this time they will. Or not.

  24. Anthony Dlugos

    interesting thoughts, Austin.

    “I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that whatever major faction doesn’t capture the nomination in 2020 is likely to take their toys and go. If I were Kasich, I’d work over the next 2-3 years to build out a framework of a new party, existing within the Republican Party, that would be ready to splinter in 2020. ”

    Its pleasant to consider the breakup of the GOP, but, as paulie alluded to a couple times above, no doubt there is much incentive for all parties concerned to try and keep the thing together, and very little advantage to the risk of splintering, with the ultimate downside of permanently sinking your political career.

    OTOH, they’ll keep it together…until they can’t anymore, and then the breakup will be looked upon as inevitable all along.

  25. Anthony Dlugos

    “It’s all about shared enemies: Mexicans, Muslims, liberal media, diversity, multicultalism…”

    This is true. My parents are regular church-going, evangelical, ardently pro-life conservative republican Christian as they come. Never in a million years did I think they would back Trump.

    But the guy went off on the infiltration of Mexicans and Muslims, and to a secondary extent went off on liberal media & P.C. multiculturalism, and they ditched evangelical Christian Cruz like a hot potato and were off to the races with Trump, never looking back.

  26. Tony From Long Island

    Very interesting points, Austin.

    Sometimes I wonder who is worse – Trump or Roy Moore

  27. Austin Cassidy

    I guess, of the three major factions, the Christian conservatives seem most agreeable to just grafting themselves onto whoever wins the nomination? They’ve been falling in line for years behind corporate Republicans.

    Though it has been shocking to see them, mostly, embrace Trump with the enthusiasm they have. As Paulie points out, I guess they do have some areas of major overlap. Is that a lasting bond or does Trump have a special magic touch?

    Will it translate over to the next person that Steve Bannon and Breitbart choose to carry the America First banner?

  28. Austin Cassidy

    I think the party landscape will look much different by 2022. It feels to me like a major realignment or a full blown split and fragmentation is coming.

    One potentially cost-effective strategy for the corporate/establishment might be to back a single horse in each of the Democratic and Republican primaries. A hedge against the Trumps and Sanders and Elizabeth Warrens of the world.

    In the event that one establishment guy wins and one loses, they could then form a unity ticket with the other party’s runner-up candidate… making use the existing infrastructure of either the Democratic or Republican parties, and probably expelling the defeated faction in the process.

    Something like that could result in a three-way split of the electorate — 1.) a Centrist/Establishment party carrying the Democratic or Republican name, 2.) a populist/nationalist party as either the Republicans or an America First Party, and finally 3.) a progressive/left party as either the Democrats or the Progressives.

    In the unlikely event that both major parties nominate ideologues, the runner-up establishment candidates would then have the option to form a centrist Unity Party.

  29. Anthony Dlugos

    “It feels to me like a major realignment or a full blown split and fragmentation is coming.”

    That’s what I think. People like to tell me its wishful thinking, but its an objective fact that collapse of any two-party system is ultimately inevitable, and with the way the demopublicans are losing support (in addition to their standardized practice of trying to suppress competition rather than improve their product), I think I am being objective about the matter.

  30. paulie

    Something like that could result in a three-way split of the electorate — 1.) a Centrist/Establishment party carrying the Democratic or Republican name, 2.) a populist/nationalist party as either the Republicans or an America First Party, and finally 3.) a progressive/left party as either the Democrats or the Progressives.

    I think 1 and 3 may unite as Democrats to have enough electoral strength to fight off 2, organized as Republicans. Republicans will gain white working class voters who used to be Democrats, and shed upper-middle class “country club” Republicans.

    What would unite progressives and the employer class? Opposition to much more restrictionist immigration policies and largescale roundups and deportations. Opposition to militarized police and/or military used for domestic law enforcement and/or weaponized drones used on a large scale basis domestically riding rough shod over civil liberties. Opposition to trying to force employers and landlords to act as unpaid immigration enforcement agents. Opposition to blurring of church and state. Opposition to draconian crackdowns on drugs and sexual commerce and expression. Opposition to the reimposition of abortion bans.

    Naturally there would be a lot of tension within such a coalition, but I think again shared enemies – that is, nationalist-populist and somewhat openly fascist-authoritarian Republicans – would be the glue to hold them together.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *