Larry Sharpe on Google Trends

With all the interest here about Larry Sharpe’s campaign for NY Governor it occurred to me yesterday to see how he’s doing on Google Trends. This might seem like a “bad news” story but read to the end and you’ll see the ray of hope I found.

According to Wikipedia, “Google Trends is a website by Google that analyzes the popularity of top search queries in Google Search across various regions and languages. The website uses graphs to compare the search volume of different queries over time.”

So last night on my phone I compared Larry Sharpe to Cynthia Nixon using Google Trends and got this result:

Sharpe had a bump in online searches thanks to his appearance on the popular Joe Rogan Experience podcast. The YouTube version has over 500,000 views and the audio podcast probably has a similar number of listens.

What was disturbing from this Google Trends search was to see how much more attention Cynthia Nixon has had over the past 30 days compared to Sharpe. Nixon was the Democratic primary opponent to Andrew Cuomo and she got crushed 66-34.

This morning I decided to look at the numbers again using my laptop, and found I was able to restrict to just searches in New York State.

The problem with using numbers for the whole US is that only New Yorkers can vote. The Joe Rogan podcast has a national audience so Larry’s numbers may have been reflecting national attention that doesn’t help in the NY race. Of course Nixon is herself a national celebrity and her campaign got some national attention, so that cuts both ways.

The “Average” bar chart on the left shows Nixon getting 15 times as many searches as Sharpe over the past 30 days. That may sound bad but there are a couple of positives Libertarians can draw from this.

First, if Sharpe does 1/15th as well in the general election as Nixon did in the primary, he’ll get over 2% of the vote and easily get ballot access for the LP. Second, when I redid the search on Sharpe alone today I noticed an uptick that wasn’t there yesterday. Google Trends trails by about two days. There was a large increase in searches for Larry Sharpe on the last day of the period, which wasn’t included the day before.

I don’t know why there was a boost on September 14th. I’m guessing Sharpe was mentioned in some of the news coverage about the primary elections and that led to some searches. It was a bigger bump than the Rogan podcast.

Those watching this race may want to keep checking this to see how Sharpe is doing. Click the following link: Larry Sharpe on Google Trends.

The other detail to watch for is Sharpe’s upcoming campaign finance filing. All candidates have to file for the 32-day Pre-General Election by October 5th. Steve Minogue, who describes himself as “Regional Campaign Director” for Sharpe, claims that Sharpe is nearing $1 million in fundraising. If that turns out to be true and Sharpe spends hundreds of thousands on TV and radio, he will make a big dent in this election.

Also on the bright side, Sharpe is running roughly even with Republican candidate Marcus Molinaro on Google Trends. As of the July filing Molinaro had raised barely over $1 million, a very small amount for a Republican governor candidate.

4 thoughts on “Larry Sharpe on Google Trends

  1. wredlich Post author

    I’m surprised no one has commented on this. Google Trends could be a meaningful replacement for polling, which tends to ignore third party candidates.

  2. paulie

    Does it say anything about how much of the searching is done by likely NY voters, or for that matter NY residents? Sorry, haven’t read the article, just responding to your comment.

  3. Andy

    Since Larry is running for office in New York, it is obviously beneficial if he is seen by as many New Yorkers as possible, but there is still a lot of value in people outside of New York brine exposed to him, because one of the goals of running for office as a Libertarian is to get a libertarian message out to as many people as possible.

  4. paulie

    True. It’s just not a substitute for polling unless it focuses on the NY electorate. That was the specific point Warren made in his comment. I’m not saying it has no value.

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