2018 Mid-Term Elections Prediction Thread

Per the suggestion in the November 2018 Open Thread, this thread is for predictions concerning the Mid-Term elections to be held Tuesday, November 6.

Possible predictions:

  • How will the elections affect the party composition of each House of Congress and governorship nationwide?
  • What alternative and/or independent candidates are you closely following and how do you think they will fare?
  • What will be the political ramifications of the elections for third parties?
  • How will these guys do?

Please comment below.

48 thoughts on “2018 Mid-Term Elections Prediction Thread

  1. Joe Buchman

    Gary Johnson comes in a distant third, perhaps even below his New Mexico vote total in 2016.

  2. Joe Buchman

    Libertarians win their first State House seat 16+ years, district 55 in Wyoming, but just barely. The Wyoming state Republican Party, with additional funding from the national party, immediately puts massive resources into preventing her reelection in 2020 (similar to what happened this year to Laura Ebke in Nebraska).

  3. Jonathan Makeley

    My predictions for the Prohbition Party candidates in the 2018 election.
    Firstly, there is myself in the 146th New York State assembly district. I’ll get some votes. Probably get 4th place. If I get lucky I might edge out the Green Party candidate for 3rd place.
    Secondly, Phil Collins for Clark County, Nevada treasurer. I’m guessing he’ll either win or make a decent second place finishing.

  4. eeyn

    If Ballotpedia is accurate, there aren’t any LP + (D or R) fusion candidates in NH this time. Which probably means zero state legislators nationwide elected with the party label, and no wins except for uncontested local elections and non-partisan offices. Hope Joe Buchman is right about Wyoming but it seems like a stretch.

    Highest LP vote total: Mark Ash, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, decent shot at 1M votes.

    Highest LP percentage (major office): Brian Luke, Washington 2nd, over 20%.

    Gary Johnson: Just barely into double digits, 10%.

    Larry Sharpe: 50,000 but just barely. He’s a great guy and got some media, but there’s declining NY population and turnout, a three way split of the protest vote, and a NY culture that’s just not very libertarian.

  5. paulie

    Libertarians win their first State House seat 16+ years, district 55 in Wyoming, but just barely. The Wyoming state Republican Party, with additional funding from the national party, immediately puts massive resources into preventing her reelection in 2020 (similar to what happened this year to Laura Ebke in Nebraska).

    Do you think Ebke has a decent shot at another term? Any of our NH reps?

  6. Thomas L. Knapp

    I suspect that the New Hampshire reps — at least Phinney and Dyer, I haven’t heard much on Stallcop — have a reasonable chance of getting re-elected. My perception is that they are running substantial campaigns, and state house districts in New Hampshire are very small. It’s one of the few places where a legislative candidate can hope to get substantial face time with every, or nearly every, voter. I’ll go ahead and predict that at least one, probably two, of the three will be re-elected.

    Ebke also seems to be running a strong campaign in Nebraska, but I understand the GOP establishment is hair on fire gunning for her. I wish there was polling.

    Johnson seems set to pull a credible result in New Mexico, but still a fairly distant third (and not “covering the balance of power.” He may break 10% even with the inevitable last-minute “spoiler effect” depression. I’ll be interested to see how his total spending and cost per vote compares with the others.

    Speaking of the “spoiler effect,” I am hoping that we’ll see that mitigated at least a little as early voting becomes more common. A voter inclined to support the Libertarian might be more likely vote for the Libertarian if he or she votes 10 days ahead of Election Day, but might be more likely to give in to the “can’t win, don’t want to waste your vote” nonsense if he or she waits until the last minute.

  7. robert capozzi

    e: NY culture that’s just not very libertarian.

    me: I guess this depends on what you mean by “culture” and “libertarian.” Having been born in NY and lived there almost half my life, on balance I’d say NYers are generally quite tolerant and live-and-let-live-oriented compared with the rest of the nation. It’s also more statist overall and more ethnically tribal.

    As Weld discovered in NY, the ability to cross-endorse in NY gives the Conservative Party out-sized control of the GOP, and social issues seem to be their raison d’etre. And yet R voters and leaners are probably more tolerant in NY on balance than most states.

    Unions and corrupt rent-seekers makes the Ds especially prone to pose as “progressive” but to govern as kleptocrats.

    These factors make NY an especially complex state politically. But it also makes it prone to realignment, if handled properly. Sharpe seemed to get that, although my sense is his execution was maybe B/B-. Propers for his effort.

  8. paulie

    If Ballotpedia is accurate, there aren’t any LP + (D or R) fusion candidates in NH this time. Which probably means zero state legislators nationwide elected with the party label, and no wins except for uncontested local elections and non-partisan offices.

    I believe NH has two LP incumbents seeking another term and Nebraska’s LP legislator is technically non-partisan but nevertheless an incumbent. You don’t think any of them have a good chance?

  9. Fred Stein

    republicans will lose 43 seats in the house. lose gov. race in florida. Larry will get 58000 votes in NY.

  10. Krzysztof Lesiak

    Dr. Buchman wrote in the first comment above:

    “Libertarians win their first State House seat 16+ years, district 55 in Wyoming, but just barely. ”

    In 2012 a Libertarian got 41% for some state house seat but that was because the incumbent GOPer was embroiled in a scandal or something. Someone in South Carolina in 2014 running with the LP for the state house received an impressive 46%, but the incumbent GOPer was on the ballot as an independent, so that also has to be taken into account.

    Wyoming district 55 has been represented since 2001 by David Miller, the current GOP house majority leader. Unopposed in 2014 and 2016, he won a comfortable 58.2% in 2012. That year, Bethany Baldes, the Libertarian running against him this year, won…5.6%. Has this politician pulled a Roy Moore or something that you think he’ll actually lose? Baldes has seemingly not raised anything on her CrowdPAC (https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/386934/wyomings-new-voice-for-a-new-economy) and FB page has only 263 likes, if she had a legitimate chance at winning, wouldn’t have the LNC taken notice and promoted her campaign both through social media and monetarily?

    No, Phinney, Dyer and Ebke have no chance at reelection (Stallcop resigned his position a few months ago according to BAN because he moved). Every year, third party enthusiasts get their hopes up -but once the polls close hearts drop, eyes roll, sometimes even tears drop. This year is not going to be different. Third parties only have a chance if one of the major parties collapse and/or America moves away from the first past the post system – the LP won’t be raking in anything close to UKIP’s 12% in 2015 – and out of 650 seats they won just ONE.

    My prediction is this – no LP candidate for U.S. Senate or Governor will break 5%, with the average being 2.9%. I think at least one LP congressional candidate in a three-way race will break 8% though. No chance at 10% since Jim McDermott is not running again, his 10.31% in 2016 in a FOUR-way race on a mere $7,879 budget was extremely impressive.

    Last point (unrelated): the LP Maine should recruit Eric Brakey if he can break 40% tomorrow which would be extremely impressive. A seemingly pretty decent Ron Paul Republican that could claw his way back to the state senate as a Libertarian and maybe even make a bid for the LP’s presidential nomination in 2024.

  11. paulie

    No, Phinney, Dyer and Ebke have no chance at reelection

    Why?

    the LP Maine should recruit Eric Brakey if he can break 40% tomorrow which would be extremely impressive. A seemingly pretty decent Ron Paul Republican that could claw his way back to the state senate as a Libertarian and maybe even make a bid for the LP’s presidential nomination in 2024.

    Extreme bordertarian. Hard pass.

  12. eeyn

    paulie: “I believe NH has two LP incumbents seeking another term and Nebraska’s LP legislator is technically non-partisan but nevertheless an incumbent. You don’t think any of them have a good chance?”

    My understanding is that they were both elected as Republicans, and this is their first time facing voters as Libertarians. Hate to say it, but I think that’s going to cut deeply into their vote even as incumbents. By the time you get that far down the ballot a lot of people are just voting by party and don’t even know the candidate names. It might be a little better in NH with no straight ticket voting and small districts with a lot of personal contact.

  13. eeyn

    ..continued

    Ebke in Nebraska might have a better chance. Non-partisan elections are often won on name recognition.

    Of course this is all guesswork by someone who hasn’t even visited either NH or NE.

  14. George Phillies

    No matter what else happens, vast numbers of Americans will b extremely unhappy with the vote outcome.

    Dan Fishman (Auditor, MA) has been endorsed by two of the state’s four major newspapers (the most-read two), is running against a Democratic incumbent who has been nailed for using state money in support of her election campaign, and has a minimal Republican opponent. Apparently there is a poll showing him at 35% and the Democrat at 45%.

    Senate: We are at 50-43 with 7 unclear. I shall predict that the Republicans end up with 51 or 56 seats, but I do not know which. There are two polls out there on the GA Senate race that show a candidate with a 13% lead. Unfortunately, they do not agree as to *which* candidate has the lead.

    I expect that the House will be fairly close.

  15. Sandy Sanders

    I wrote some thoughts on the Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties and i offer some commentary.

    http://www.varight.com/news/best-list-of-all-libertarian-statewide-candidates-to-commence-our-third-party-election-night-coverage/

    http://www.varight.com/news/the-green-party-did-this-handy-dandy-list-of-leading-candidates/

    http://www.varight.com/news/and-the-constitution-party/

    I apologize for three posts like this. But enjoy!

    Sandy Sanders
    Blogger at Virginia Right

  16. wredlich

    I’m terrible at predictions but here goes:

    1. Republicans hold the Senate AND the House.

    2. Larry Sharpe breaks 50K in NY getting ballot access for Libertarians for the next 4 years. My gut says he breaks 100K. He has worked very hard. I don’t like certain things about his campaign, but the effort is undeniable.

    3. Gary Johnson a distant third. I haven’t been watching the race so I’m winging this one.

    4. Florida Libertarians get zero votes in statewide races. This would seem like a bold prediction but there are no statewide LP candidates. 🙂

  17. Shawn Levasseur

    “the LP Maine should recruit Eric Brakey if he can break 40% tomorrow which would be extremely impressive. A seemingly pretty decent Ron Paul Republican that could claw his way back to the state senate as a Libertarian and maybe even make a bid for the LP’s presidential nomination in 2024.”

    If he breaks 40%, he’ll be considered a GOP rising star who’ll be impossible to recruit. Angus King, although an independent, is a dominating force in Maine politics. To get such a high result against him would be impressive.

  18. Jill Pyeatt

    I predict that nothing of note will happen in California, except that it’s highly possible Jeff Hewitt will become the new Riverside County Superintendent. I think our state chair, Mimi Robson, will have a good percentage of votes. Our state idiots, Feinstein, Waters and Schiff will all be re-elected, and the Democrats in this state will become meaner and even more fascist.

    I had exactly zero Libertarians on my ballot. I’m highly discouraged. Maybe it is time to leave this state, but I can’t go anywhere for at least 5 or 6 years.

  19. Jill Pyeatt

    As far as the rest of the country, I predict that Republicans will take the house and keep the Senate. I’m basing this prediction solely on the size of the huge crowds showing up at Trump’s rallies.

  20. Tony From Long Island

    Jill, You really want to make a prediction on an election where MILLIONS of people vote based on rallies that a few thousand fanatical robot cult members attend? Where is the logic in that?

    Even more cult members attended his rallies in 2016 and he received 3 million fewer votes than his main opponent.

  21. Tony From Long Island

    Voted this morning. This was the first election I can recall that I did not vote for single libertarian.

    Larry Sharpe will be hurt by the terrible ballot spot he received.

  22. Tony From Long Island

    My prediction:

    Gary Johnson gets about 9%
    Lucy Brenton gets about 5%

    Dems pick up 45 – 50 seats in the house

    Ted Cruz Loses

    Senate stays about how it is now.

  23. Jill Pyeatt

    My point about my national prediction is that Trump still has a very large base of people who are highly motivated. I think my method is more reliable than polls, but it certainly isn’t very scientific.

    I have been trying to stay out of national and state politics, actually, in an attempt to reduce the stress in my life, so it’s not like I have a handle on what’s really going on.

    I am married to a Texan, however, and I don’t think Cruz will lose.

  24. Tony From Long Island

    You are very correct that his cult members are very motivated, but they are slowly shrinking. There are still enough to fill his nonsensical rallies, but not nearly enough to win the house.

  25. Anthony Dlugos

    I don’t think Cruz will lose either.

    Otherwise, I hope ballot access results break in the LP’s favor, of course.

  26. Krzysztof Lesiak

    I just got back from my polling place (nice, quaint Catholic church). I voted in my first election for only 5 candidates, straight ticket Libertarian – Kash Jackson for Governor, Bubba Harsey for Attorney General, Steve Dutner for Secretary of State, Claire Bell for Comptroller, and Michael Leheney for Treasurer.

    I rejected Cantwellism as an omage to IPR. Hopefully one of these individuals will get that coveted 5% and secure some ballot access for the LP.

  27. Anthony Dlugos

    Thankfully, I was once again able to vote for Libertarians in Ohio.

    If no Libertarian was available, I voted Democratic.

  28. eeyn524

    Mark Ash well over 1M votes. He’s winning Travis County (Austin) 122,616 to 122,319, plus a few smaller counties. If it holds up, not a bad night.

  29. Krzysztof Lesiak

    My original prediction of 80,000 votes for Sharpe appears to be pretty good after all:

    Sharpe at 40,113 votes (1.3%) with 54% reporting. He’s got ballot access in the bank. I guess he was at 0.6% at 25% reporting before Upstate results starting rolling in.

    Congratulations to Sharpe, looks like Weld today found out who his main opponent will be in 2020.

  30. Jim

    eeyn “If Ballotpedia is accurate, there aren’t any LP + (D or R) fusion candidates in NH this time. Which probably means zero state legislators nationwide elected with the party label, and no wins except for uncontested local elections and non-partisan offices.”

    I thought there was one cross endorsement in New Hampshire – Carla Gericke, for state senate 20. She didn’t win, though.

    5 of the Libertarian cross-endorsed candidates in Oregon appear to have won:

    Kim Thatcher, state senate 13 (Republican and Independent)
    Brian Clem, state representative 21 (Democrat and Independent)
    Bill Post, state representative 25, (Republican and Independent)
    Christine Drazan, state representative 29 (Republican)
    E. Werner Reschke, state representative 56 (Republican and Independent)

  31. Tony From Long Island

    My predictions were pretty good this year. Cruz was a lot closer than anyone thought. Dems did great in the house. Should be a fun next two years until the era of Drumph ends.

  32. eeyn

    Jim – How does cross-endorsing work in Oregon? Is it something the candidates own/acknowledge, or is it more like the LP not running anyone against Justin Amash, figuring energies are better spent elsewhere?

  33. paulie

    It looks like me pre-election predictions posted in Open Thread were pretty accurate, as were Knapp’s. Saturn was too optimistic in thinking the Republicans would hold the House but as I expected it was a narrow switch, not a “blue wave.” 538, much as I thought, was smoking blue crack yet again. Knapp and I were apparently wrong about Gov and Sen in Florida. Sharpe did even better than I was hoping for.

  34. paulie

    Dems did great in the house.

    That’s kind of defining greatness down. For a midterm their gains were less impressive than many past waves. Maybe a blue ripple at best, and they actually lost seats in the Senate, which matters more.

    Should be a fun next two years until the era of Drumph ends.

    I would not assume that. Incumbents are hard to beat. The House can hold hearings and investigations and draw up impeachment but with the Senate firmly Republican there will be no convictions/removals from office, and it will just inspire a backlash much as the Clinton impeachment did. Trump will also be able to run against a “do nothing” House much as Clinton in ’96.

    Meanwhile Republicans control the judicial and bureaucratic nomination process. People here still seem not to grasp how important that is, but you will. If the economy stays good, Trump could easily win a second term. If it goes bad, he can start a war (even though he can’t legally declare one, he can start one anyway) and get a short term boost to win another term; he just has to time it better than Bush did Persian Gulf I, so his popularity boost doesn’t have time to crash before the election.

  35. paulie

    Congratulations to Sharpe, looks like Weld today found out who his main opponent will be in 2020.

    Don’t be surprised if there are other party switchers, celebrities and/or megawealthy people jumping into that one.

  36. paulie

    Thankfully, I was once again able to vote for Libertarians in Ohio.

    Happy to have helped make that possible. Unfortunately it appears retention was not achieved, so it’s extremely likely that in 2020 you will once again only be able to vote for the LP presidential candidate with an independent ballot label and no partisan or downticket LP candidates. It may be a long time before the LP is back on the Ohio ballot again.

  37. Anthony Dlugos

    “Don’t be surprised if there are other party switchers, celebrities and/or megawealthy people jumping into that one.”

    Agreed. With the celebrities/megawealthy (my choice, Mackey) more likely, due to the fact that a party switcher (Amash?) would basically be putting his political career on the line on a longshot.

  38. Jim

    eeyn “How does cross-endorsing work in Oregon? Is it something the candidates own/acknowledge, or is it more like the LP not running anyone against Justin Amash, figuring energies are better spent elsewhere?”

    Don’t really know. In prior years with a major party + LP endorsement, the election results in Oregon only listed the major party. But this year the LP endorsement is listed alongside the major party. I’m assuming that’s how it was listed on the ballot. I don’t know if the party status changed or what.

  39. Libertydave

    In Oregon the state LP does its own primary for nominations. If no registered libertarian is running for a specific office then the LP is open to people of other parties who want to try for the LP nomination. Lets say a Republican or Democrat wants to run for state rep under the Libertarian line and no Libertarian is running for the seat, the Republican or Democrat would still have to beat “None of the Above” in the primary. It’s been this way in Oregon since 2012 after a group of disgruntled Republicans tried to take over the state party.

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