Posted by Jim in Open Thread:
For most states I used numbers closer to the election than those that are in the November BAN. The numbers that I used for the Constitution Party, Working Families Party, and Reform Party are within a few hundred of the number in BAN. But, the more updated numbers that I used I used added 2,300 to the Green Party and 18,800 to the Libertarian Party. Almost half of the difference for the LP came from California. Richard Winger used the 60 day pre-election report while I used the 15 day report.
It will all go in the same imgur album as before. There will be some new stuff in there, too. Most of it won’t be done until late January or early February.
The [Libertarian Party] fall in the 1980s is due almost entirely to a steep decline in California’s numbers. A few other states, like Arizona and Nevada, increased during the decade. But California amounted to 87% – 98% of all registrations in the 1980s. It probably had a lot to do with Reagan being Governor there. And Justin Raimondo was publishing letters in LP News asking people to quit the LP and join the Republican Party. Also contributing to about 2,000 of the decline: 11 states reported LP stats in 1980, but only 7 did so by 1990.
The 90s was a reverse of all of those things. By 2000 California had added 44,000, rebounding back above its 1980 level. The number of states reporting increased from 7 to 21. And there were also some states besides California with rapid growth. Pennsylvania added 30,000, which moved it up to 2nd place behind California, where it remains today. No states finished 2000 with fewer registrations than 1990.
California lost about 7,000 between 2000 and 2008, but those came back by 2010, leaving it flat for the decade. The dip in 2002 is entirely explained by the fact that Pennsylvania did not report the LP registration stat that year (it would have been around 32,000.) The dip in 2006 was caused by North Carolina and Nebraska going to zero, wiping out around 18,000. And Massachusetts peaked in 2004 at 24,000 and began a slide that didn’t stop until 9,000 in 2016. The number of states reporting only rose from 21 in 2000 to 25 in 2010, and the 4 added states didn’t contribute much. 6 state parties had a net loss during the 2000s.
The number of states reporting in 2018 was 31. Combined those 6 additional states contributed 24,000 to the 567,000 total. The rest has been pretty widespread growth. Since 2010, California is up 58,000, Colorado 29,000, North Carolina 28,000, Florida 15,000, Nebraska 14,000, Maryland 13,000… Only two states have a net loss since 2010: Alaska and Massachusetts. And those two combined are only down 1,600.