Despite being largely unknown and not particularly well liked Bill Brady leads with 39% to 30% for Quinn and 11% for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, continuing his path toward becoming one of the most unlikely big state Governors in recent history.
Brady is winning 80% of Republicans while only 60% of Democrats are committed to Quinn. Perhaps most remarkable is the numbers among independents- Brady leads with 40% with Whitney second at 19% and Quinn finishing all the way back in third at 15%.
Full results are here. In their last poll of the race, Whitney was at 9% support. Nevertheless, there are some problems with the poll. For starters, it has become clear that Scott Lee Cohen, the former Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor who dropped out of that race amidst scandal, is a lock to appear on the ballot with Whitney. Cohen has significant personal resources and may split a base with Whitney, eroding the Green candidate’s support.
Furthermore, two perceived “right-wing” candidates may yet appear on the ballot. Libertarian Lex Green’s petitions seems to have survived their challenges, and hearings continue for the Constitution Party petitions for Michael White. Whitney’s support may also be drawn from “protest voters”, who dislike both Quinn and Brady. Since PPP only included one minor party or indy candidate in the poll, such protest votes would go to Whitney. However, some conservative voters may pick to vote for a perceived “conservative” candidate as a protest vote on election day, diminishing Whitney’s support.
It must be noted this is not necessarily the case. Whitney has been actively campaigning and opening campaign offices. His name recognition will be higher than other minor party politicos (save perhaps Cohen) from his 2006 campaign for Governor. However, it seems foolish for PPP to leave such questions up in the air without a clear answer.