The latest polling from SurveyUSA shows a tightening race for Governor of Minnesota. From the pollster:
Today, Dayton gets 38%, Emmer 36%; Dayton’s nominal 2-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant. But: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner today gets 18% of the vote, stronger yet among older, more reliable voters, complicating the calculus either major-party campaign needs to capture the open seat. Among men, Emmer leads Dayton by 11 points; among women, Dayton leads Emmer by 13 — a 24-point gender gap. 1 in 5 men and 1 in 6 women vote for the Independence Party candidate Horner. Dayton has an edge among older voters, but Horner gets 22% among those 50+. Emmer and Dayton each take 3 of 4 votes from members of their own parties, with Horner taking 14% of Republican and 13% of Democrat votes today. Among the 1 in 3 voters who are independent, the 3 candidates are effectively even, separated from one another by 3 points. Dayton, who served as a US Senator from 2001 to 2006, leads by 14 points in Northeastern Minnesota; Emmer, a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, has a small advantage in the southern portion of MN. Elsewhere, Dayton and Emmer tie, with Horner receiving 14% to 22% of the vote.
“Other” also came in at 5% of the vote. While one would assume this support would translate into direct support for the four other minor party candidates into the race, other as an undefined option is generally exhibits inflated support over named minor party candidates. (These minor party candidates are Ken Pentel, Farheen Hakim, Linda Eno and Chris Wrights).
Previous polling had Tom Horner floating around 12-13% of the vote. The surge in support may be the result of a series of positive press and endorsements for the candidate earlier this week.