Johnson polling at 10% in Ohio

A Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio poll released September 25 shows that Gary Johnson has increased his polling numbers in the state.

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If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

  • Barack Obama 44.5% {46.47%}
  • Mitt Romney 37.8% {42.39%}
  • Gary Johnson 10.6% {4.5%}
  • Other/Unsure 7.1%

Survey of  594 likely voters was conducted September 21-22, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 41.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican; 27.5% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.

More information on the poll can be found at

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey

28 thoughts on “Johnson polling at 10% in Ohio

  1. Austin Battenberg Post author

    What is really interesting is that his poll numbers have gone up since the last poll in the same state. Usually third party candidates poll numbers go down.

    I agree that achieving 10% is highly unlikely, but aren’t we committing a self-fulfilling prophesy by giving up any chance of success?

    Most of the time the poll numbers go down over time, so isn’t this good news?

  2. Steve M

    one commentator from one story was talking about there are more Ron Paul and Gary Johnson Signs up in his neighborhood then Mitt and Obama combined.

  3. George Phillies

    Gravis is an orthodox pollster that uses only land lines calling, meaning that cell phone users have to be modeled because they are not being sampled. That tilts the model toward Romney.

  4. Steve M

    George, assuming that to be true and that in other states Johnson has been pulling strength from the 18 to 25 (cell phone) wouldn’t this indicate that Johnson might be under-counted or over estimated and certainly that Romney is in trouble.

  5. George Phillies

    @7 Polling third party candidates can be difficult. In my opinion this poll, and a bunch of others that agree with it) tend to indicate that Romney is burnt toast. The new Obama attack ad, which in my opinion is as impressive as the Goldwater Daisy ad, is just rolling out. If Romney is down far enough, many libertarian Democrats and libertarian Republicans may conclude that it is safe to vote for Johnson.

  6. Mark Axinn

    George @8.

    Agree with the burnt toast. It’s particularly easy to ask people to vote for Johnson in an even bluer-than-Massachusetts state like mine, where the R’s aren’t even campaigning!

    But for Johnson to do so well in a toss-up state like Ohio is fantastic.

    I agree that the actual result will likely be under 10%, but even 5% in a state the D’s and R’s both take seriously would be terrific.

  7. Andy

    “The new Obama attack ad, which in my opinion is as impressive as the Goldwater Daisy ad, is just rolling out.”

    The new Obama attack ad against Romney is well done, and probably effective, but it is also complete BS. I don’t like Mitt Romney, but his statement about 47% of the population drawing a check from the government, and voting for Obama for that reason is pretty much correct. I don’t think that voting for Mitt Romney is going to do anything to make things better than a vote for Obama, but none the less, to borrow a quote from Thomas Jefferson, “There is more machinery of government than necessary, too many parasites sucking off the fruit of the industrious.”

  8. Deran

    Well, I’m sure all the Libertarians here realize that if Johnson does pull some decent numbers, or even if he doesn’t, and Romney loses, I would imagine the GOP will go after the LP the way the Dems went after Nader in ’04.

    It seems there is enough talk of Johnson potentially polling in some states in high single, or even low double, digits, and Romney loses, I think the GOP will blame the LP, like the Dems blame Nader for Gore’s loss in 2000.

  9. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    if Johnson does pull some decent numbers, or even if he doesn’t, and Romney loses, I would imagine the GOP will go after the LP the way the Dems went after Nader in ’04.

    Which is why Root was smart (from a career perspective) to abandon the LP. He avoids any backlash from his Fox News/Tea Party fan base.

  10. Austin Battenberg Post author

    @11 I think with the rise of the internet and social media it will be much more difficult for third parties to get the blame of a particular candidate losing. Let me rephrase, I’m sure the establishment will TRY to blame Gary Johnson, but with approval ratings so low and independent voters continuing to go up, I think it won’t matter to the people who vote for Johnson in the first place.

  11. George Whitfield

    I think Wayne Allyn Root zigged when he should have zagged. He is deserting the LP when it is improving its standings. He is burning bridges, going further out on a limb and it is sad to watch.

  12. Thane Eichenauer

    @14
    I think Wayne Allyn Root, the father and husband, is a good guy. However Wayne Allyn Root the political person deserted the LP as soon as he wrote his second or third article promoting Mitt Romney. His formal resignation was long overdue. I don’t think there are any particular bridges I would worry about. He now has the option if he is so inclined to advocate in favor of pro-liberty initiatives such as auditing the Federal Reserve without members of the Libertarian Party critiquing his failure to promote Libertarian Party issue X, Y or Z or Libertarian Party candidate A, B or C. In my opinion his leaving the Libertarian Party is a win-win.

  13. Robert Capozzi

    Wow, somehow this thread becomes about Root?! Oy vey!

    Conscious Rs know they are doomed. It’s just a matter of time for them to schism. Their coalition is too conflicted. The Ds are – in the end – more a shakedown operation, so its conflicts are more who gets the bigger slice of the take.

    GJ esp. could be the model for a real third party – “moderate” L-ism. I do hope that GJ can poll well in Nov., as a demonstration that Ls can get traction despite the odds.

  14. paulie

    I don’t like Mitt Romney, but his statement about 47% of the population drawing a check from the government, and voting for Obama for that reason is pretty much correct.

    Two of the biggest groups drawing government checks are seniors and the military, both of which support Romney at higher rates than the rest of the population. It is true that there are other groups of people drawing government checks who will be supporting Obama, but not just for that reason alone. Also, while not numerically significant as a portion of the electorate, multi-millionaires and billionaires who are the owners and major stockholders of large corporations tend to be the beneficiaries of bailouts, “quantitative easing” and corporate welfare (etc). They naturally vote for both halves of the Omni-Robomba, since they know where their bread is buttered.

  15. ATBAFT

    #11, our response should be “Bring it On.” Are they going to throw us out of our patronage jobs?
    Will voters stand by and let them make ballot access even harder? Will Democrats go along with new GOP ballot access hurdles?

  16. Kevin Knedler

    Capozzi just nailed in with # 16 post. I have been saying this same thing for 5 years in Ohio. Let the LP attract the “Middle of America”. I didn’t say we are moderates in our positions. Moderation in Washington DC is what got us into the fiscal disaster that is ahead of us. Too many “deals” at the taxpayer expanse. But in Ohio, the LP team is trying to potray itself as a reasonale and SANE alternative to the insanity of the two old corporate parties from the 19th century. And the youth is responding. Small steps and in a few years the LP will be larger. THe demographics for the GOP are not good in long term because too many of them will be gone. I will be also but am making sure the bench is stacked for the future of the LP in Ohio.

  17. Andy

    “Two of the biggest groups drawing government checks are seniors and the military, both of which support Romney at higher rates than the rest of the population. It is true that there are other groups of people drawing government checks who will be supporting Obama, but not just for that reason alone.”

    I don’t know if there’s a way to get an exact breakdown (probably not), but there are also all of the local and state government employees, plus all of the people on food stamps, etc…

    The bottom line is that there are too many people who either get a check from the government (directly or indirectly), and/or who are in some kind of business that is protected by the government, and many of these people believe that getting their check or their special break from the government is more important than individual liberty.

    Voting for either Obama or Romney is not going to change this.

  18. Steve

    I hope Governor Johnson and Judge Gray can re-arrange their schedules on the fly to get to Ohio and make hay over this poll with the local (and perhaps national) media.

    The LP is in a much better place than the Greens in 2000 if we “spoil” the election for Romney. Since we aren’t merely a far-right party the way the Greens are far-left, Republicans have nothing that we want so we’re not harmed if they lose.

  19. Mark Axinn

    >if Johnson does pull some decent numbers, or even if he doesn’t, and Romney loses, I would imagine the GOP will go after the LP the way the Dems went after Nader in ’04.

    Aren’t they doing that already? See, e.g., ballot attacks in OK, PA, MI and failed attempts in IA, OH andVA to knock us off the ballot.

  20. Stewart Flood

    There is an old Internet superstition: in any group discussion, someone will eventually mention the name of the WWII Nazi dictator.

    Root has become the H___er of third party politics. I can think of no one more deserving.

  21. Steve M

    Stewart,

    More like a theorem, Godwin’s Law states

    ” As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one. “

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