PPP has been polling the presidential race, and others, in various states over the previous weeks and has finally arrived at Montana. In Montana they polled the Presidential, Senate, and House race–and included the Libertarian Party candidate in each.
When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 6% with Romney leading Obama 50-40. That’s consistent with our general finding that Johnson doesn’t pull too disproportionately from either Obama or Romney and is thus unlikely to play a spoiler effect in the contest.
The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama’s standing has deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester’s has remained unchanged. Last month we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates.
Republicans have the advantage in Montana’s open House race. Steve Daines is at 43% to 34% for Kim Gillan and 10% for Dave Kaiser. Both candidates continue to be pretty unknown to the voters, with only 50% name recognition, so the numbers at this point are kind of a generic ballot and Gillan could gain as people become more familiar with her in the final month.”
Johnson scores 6%, Cox scores 8%, and Kaiser scores 10%.