Results from IPR’s Second 2020 Libertarian Party Presidential Preference Poll

IPR held its second 2020 Libertarian Party presidential preference poll from May 17 through May 19.  401 individuals completed the survey including 233 Libertarian Party members, 85 delegates to the 2020 National Convention, and 31 alternates to the 2020 National Convention.

Jo Jorgensen won the poll among delegates after reaching a majority on the sixth ballot.  With both alternates and delegates included, she won on the seventh ballot.

Vermin Supreme received a majority of party member votes as well as a majority of overall voters.  A large number of these votes were submitted after Supreme posted a link to the poll on his Facebook page.  Interestingly, only 27% of Supreme supporters support the Libertarian Party ticket in the general election if Jorgensen is the nominee.  Only 20% would support the ticket with Jacob Hornberger or Judge Jim Gray as the nominee.  A majority plan either not to vote (32%–38%) or to vote for likely Green Party presidential nominee Howie Hawkins (21%-22%).  Conversely, 53% of non-Supreme supporters would not support Supreme in the general election if he is the nominee.

An oversampling of votes came in from Indiana and Georgia, which may have affected the outcome.

Delegates to the 2020 Libertarian National Convention (85 votes)

Although Vermin Supreme took an early lead, he lacked the necessary second and third place support to reach a majority.  Jorgensen, however, did have the support, which eventually pushed her to a majority.

First Ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 29 (34.12%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 25 (29.41%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 10 (11.76%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 8 (9.41%)
  • John Monds – 5 (5.88%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 3 (3.53%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 3 (3.53%)
  • Sam Robb  – 1 (1.18%) (eliminated)
  • Justin Amash – 1 (1.18%) (eliminated)

Second Ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 29 (34.12%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 27 (31.76%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 10 (11.76%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 8 (9.41%)
  • John Monds – 5 (5.88%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 3 (3.53%) (eliminated)
  • Arvin Vohra – 3 (3.53%) (eliminated)

Third Ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 30 (35.29%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 29 (34.12%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 11 (12.94%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 8 (9.41%)
  • John Monds – 5 (5.88%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 2 (2.35%)

Fourth Ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 32 (37.65%)
  • Vermin Supreme – 30 (35.29%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 11 (12.94%)
  • Judge Jim Gray 8 (9.41%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 4 (4.71%)

Fifth Ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 37 (43.53%)
  • Vermin Supreme – 30 (35.29%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 13 (15.30%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 5 (5.88%)

Sixth Ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 44 (51.76%) (winner)
  • Vermin Supreme – 31 (36.47%)
  • NOTA – 10 (11.76%)

Delegates and Alternates to the 2020 Libertarian National Convention (116 votes)

First ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 40 (34.48%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 29 (25%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 17 (14.66%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 11 (9.48%)
  • John Monds – 8 (6.90%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 3 (2.59%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 3 (2.59%)
  • Justin Amash – 3 (2.59%)
  • Sam Robb – 1 (0.86%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 1 (0.86%)

Second ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 40 (34.48%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 30 (25.86%)
  • Jacob Hornberger  – 17 (14.66%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 11 (9.48%)
  • John Monds – 8 (6.90%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 3 (2.59%) (eliminated)
  • Arvin Vohra – 3 (2.59%) (eliminated)
  • Justin Amash – 3 (2.59%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 1 (0.86%)

Third ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 41 (35.35%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 34 (29.31%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 18 (15.52%)
  • Jim Gray – 12 (10.35%)
  • John Monds – 8 (6.90%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 3 (2.59%)

Fourth ballot:

  • Vermin Supreme – 41 (35.35%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 39 (33.62%)
  • Jacob Hornberger 19 (16.38%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 12 (10.35%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 5 (4.31%)

Fifth ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 46 (39.66%)
  • Vermin Supreme – 41 (35.35%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 22 (18.97%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 7 (0.60%)

Sixth ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 56 (48.28%)
  • Vermin Supreme – 45 (38.79%) (eliminated)
  • NOTA – 15 (12.93%)

Seventh ballot:

  • Jo Jorgensen – 67 (57.76%) (winner)
  • NOTA – 49 (42.24%)

Libertarian Party members (233 votes)

  • Vermin Supreme – 102 (43.78%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 41 (17.60%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 28 (12.02%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 27 (11.59%)
  • John Monds – 15 (6.44%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 6 (2.58%)
  • Justin Amash – 5 (2.15%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 4 (1.72%)
  • LP Nominee – 1 (0.43%)
  • NOTA – 1 (0.43%)
  • Sam Robb – 1 (0.43%)
  • Bishop Hayes – 1 (0.43%)
  • John McAfee – 1 (0.43%)

All votes before Supreme’s Facebook posting (175 votes):

  • Vermin Supreme – 42 (24.00%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 41 (23.43%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 33 (18.86%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 23 (13.14%)
  • John Monds – 16 (9.14%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 5 (2.86%)
  • Justin Amash – 4 (2.29%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 3 (1.71%)
  • NOTA – 2 (1.14%)
  • Undecided – 1 (0.57%)
  • LP Nominee – 1 (0.57%)
  • Sam Robb – 1 (0.57%)
  • Ron Paul – 1 (0.57%)
  • Bishop Hayes – 1 (0.57%)
  • Elon Musk – 1 (0.57%)

All votes after Supreme’s Facebook posting (226 votes):

  • Vermin Supreme – 187 (82.74%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 12 (5.31%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 7 (3.10%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 6 (2.65%)
  • Justin Amash – 5 (2.21%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 3 (1.33%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 2 (0.88%)
  • John Monds – 2 (0.88%)
  • Dan Behrman – 1 (0.44%)
  • John McAfee – 1 (0.44%)

Total results (401 votes):

  • Vermin Supreme – 229 (57.11%)
  • Jo Jorgensen – 47 (11.72%)
  • Judge Jim Gray – 40 (9.98%)
  • Jacob Hornberger – 35 (8.73%)
  • John Monds – 18 (4.49%)
  • Justin Amash – 9 (2.24%)
  • Adam Kokesh – 8 (2.00%)
  • Arvin Vohra – 5 (1.25%)
  • NOTA – 2 (0.50%)
  • Undecided – 1 (0.25%)
  • LP Nominee – 1 (0.25%)
  • Dan Behrman – 1 (0.25%)
  • Sam Robb – 1 (0.25%)
  • Ron Paul – 1 (0.25%)
  • Bishop Hayes – 1 (0.25%)
  • Elon Musk – 1 (0.25%)
  • John McAfee – 1 (0.25%)

Results from the vice presidential section of the poll will be posted soon.

21 thoughts on “Results from IPR’s Second 2020 Libertarian Party Presidential Preference Poll

  1. Anthony Dlugos

    “Interestingly, only 27% of Supreme supporters support the Libertarian Party ticket in the general election if Jorgensen is the nominee. Only 20% would support the ticket with Jacob Hornberger or Judge Jim Gray as the nominee. A majority plan either not to vote (32%–38%) or to vote for likely Green Party presidential nominee Howie Hawkins (21%-22%). ”

    Not sure if he’s doing libertarianism right if “not vote” or the Green Party are Vermin’s supporters’ second choice.

  2. paulie

    Of course he is. They wouldn’t dream of considering the LP otherwise. The same goes true of many of the Republicans that the other campaigns try to bring in. A few of them stick because the LP continuously twists itself into knots to make itself welcoming to them. If it did one tenth as much to make itself welcoming to these folks as it does to Republicans and right wingers of all sorts it would grow by leaps and bounds, as the results of the April national membership contest and LPNH growth show.

  3. Jared

    Because they’re attracted to his satirical character and not his actual views or those of the LP? Exposure is great, but I fail to see, if these results are any indication, how Supreme brings in new members or inspires any confidence in the party. Verminites seem to be all over the map politically, if they have any ideology at all, so I don’t know where you’d even begin to make your libertarian pitch. At least when addressing interested right-leaners, you can identify areas of potential overlap and frame your message according to their values. (Same goes for interested left-leaners.) Short of nominating their hero, what can Libertarians do to ingratiate themselves to Supreme’s fanbase?

  4. Anthony Dlugos

    “Exposure is great, but I fail to see, if these results are any indication, how Supreme brings in new members or inspires any confidence in the party. Verminites seem to be all over the map politically, if they have any ideology at all, so I don’t know where you’d even begin to make your libertarian pitch. ”

    +1

  5. paulie

    Exposure is great, but I fail to see, if these results are any indication, how Supreme brings in new members or inspires any confidence in the party.

    Like so: https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/politics-is-a-joke-but-what-if-the-libertarian-party-was-in-on-it/

    Again, look at the April national membership contest or the LPNH dues paying membership recruitment numbers. Those numbers aren’t lying to you.

    Verminites seem to be all over the map politically, if they have any ideology at all,

    They have some ideological cohesion. You don’t see a whole lot of support for Trump in there. They aren’t contemplating voting for Blankenship. They are either disgusted by the unfunny joke that mainstream politics is and looking at not voting at all, or voting for someone who promises to end the wars overseas, national security police state, homeland gestapo, corporate bailouts, crony corporate welfare, drug war, etc: Howie Hawkins. Those issues have a lot in common with the LP, and the LP position correctly presented by someone they actually pay attention to can reach them. The LP has consistently failed to deliver that messenger. Vermin is having success there where others have failed.

    Short of nominating their hero, what can Libertarians do to ingratiate themselves to Supreme’s fanbase?

    Be interesting. Don’t be boring. Demonstrate kindness and caring, not selfishness and pigheaded arrogance. There are tons of people, young people and immigrants especially, who desperately yearn for an alternative. They are sick of the politics of hate and fear. Tired of trillions for “too big to fail” banks and megacorporations while half the country’s small business go belly up and everyone who can’t take a private jet to a private island to self-isolate drowns in debt. Fed up with farmers destroying crops and holocausting animals while food banks have miles long lines and run out of supplies. Past fed up with the brutal police-prison-industrial complex and endless wars. Disgusted with the ways immigrants and refugees are being treated.

    If the LP can’t find a way to connect with these widespread sentiments, that’s our fault, not theirs.

  6. Anthony Dlugos

    “Again, look at the April national membership contest or the LPNH dues paying membership recruitment numbers. ”

    compared to what? previous Libertarian numbers?

    that’s not a good metric.

    I make comparisons to the dinosaur parties.

  7. NewFederalist

    Will the LP virtual portion of the ongoing physical Orlando convention be live streamed anywhere?

  8. paulie

    compared to what?

    It was a membership contest between the different campaigns seeking the LP nomination. Vermin won easily.

  9. paulie

    Will the LP virtual portion of the ongoing physical Orlando convention be live streamed anywhere?

    Yes, click the youtube link at LP,org

  10. William Saturn Post author

    There was quite a bit of support for Trump among Supreme supporters. Just a little bit more than the support for Biden. Support for Biden and Trump was much higher among Supreme supporters than supporters of other candidates.

  11. dL

    Not sure if he’s doing libertarianism right if “not vote” or the Green Party are Vermin’s supporters’ second choice.

    Boy, talk about purism…you’re apparent electoral strategy–a term you like to throw around a lot–is to only attract voters whose 1st AND 2nd choice for POTUS must be LP nomination candidates. Does that criteria extend further to 3rd and 4th choice, too? lulz

  12. David M. Hodges

    For what it’s worth (likely very little), after Justin Amash dropped out, Jacob Hornberger became the only remaining LP candidate (among those with any shot at the nomination) to whom I could consider giving my protest vote. The same convictions that prevent me from joining the LP with its present platform (which HAS improved) prevent me from voting for most LP candidates. Since my party of registration, the Constitution Party, chose to nominate the candidate I most hoped it wouldn’t nominate, I’m hoping the LP will select a candidate I can vote for. As an obsessively pure advocate of principled, philosophically self-consistent libertarianism who is also pro-life and a Christian, Hornberger would satisfy my protest-vote criteria. Alas, it appears from this poll that the LP party activists who will actually make the nomination have other ideas. I can’t say this surprises me, though.

  13. Starchild

    Good comments in this thread Paulie. I encourage everyone to check out the new mini documentary (11minutes), “The Serious Case for Vermin Supreme” by Daniel Smoltz. On YouTube.

  14. Anthony Dlugos

    “Good clown > evil clown”

    But here’s the good news; we don’t need to run a clown.

    We actually have a legitimate governing philosophy that can be practically applies by qualified officeholders to policy issues of the day.

  15. Pingback: Lamenting Lost Liberty, Lame Candidates, and Lunacy on the Left and Right | Pious Eye: Seeing by the True Light

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