California’s Ventura County Star reports Libertarian vice presidential nominee Wayne Allyn Root drew a “smaller turnout†than he expected at a Sunday rally in Ventura, “with only about 30 people showing up.†Root “brought the same message that he had preached around the country: that the ticket with him and Bob Barr, a former U.S. attorney and former congressman from Georgia, offered a better choice than ‘the failed two-party system.’†He said, “A vote for John McCain is four more years of George W. Bush – nightmare. A vote for Barack Obama is four more years of Karl Marx.†Regarding Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Root said, “The Republicans aren’t stupid. They went out and got the female version of Wayne Root to be vice president. … I can’t stand government. She’s part of it.â€
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And now Root is upset that a poster by the Utah LP declared that Palin isn’t a libertarian. Well, the poster is right. So is Root – the two of them are a lot alike.
35 days out from the election, anything can still happen.
But I largely agree with Mike Gillis assessment.
With a couple of caveats:
Most people are not political geeks, as many of us here are. I am campaigning for US Congress, and I meet people EVERY DAY that say they are voting for Ron Paul in the general election. These people are unaware of Paul’s endorsement of Baldwin. I suspect that many of these people will write in Paul, unaware that these votes will be discarded (I would love to be an election observer to witness this).
Second, I think that Nader will do somewhat better than Mike’s prediction, though early polling always skews third party results.
Third, the LP has started to gain some name recognition and goodwill amongst the electorate, even though seemingly few people really know much about our principled stands on issues (and is therefore a good reason to keep Root out of the limelight). But this goodwill probably won’t elevate our totals above Mike’s predictions.
Finally, the Green’s have also been building name recognition and goodwill. So, while most voters are unaware of McKinney, she may well do better than Baldwin.
My $.02
PEACE
I’d like to read about a libertarian version of Root for once
30 is about average for an LP VP campaign event.
He thinks he’s still selling sports picks.
2 darolew // Sep 23, 2008 at 8:39 am
Root needs to realize people often have problems voting for idiots.
I think Gillis is probably pretty much correct, except that I’d switch Barr and Baldwin.
I’m confident Nader will break a million, easily.
My predictions for 2008:
Nader: 800,000 to 1 million
Barr: 500,000 to 600,000
Baldwin: 250,000 to 350,000
McKinney: 200,000 to 300,000
Mike G,
I take into account that many of Paul’s supporters would be turned off by Baldwin’s fundamentalism. My estimates are that of Paul’s 1.2 million supporters, 660,000 of them will have Baldwin on their ballot. If half of them find Baldwin’s fundamentalism too much to look over, that still leaves 330,000 votes for Baldwin, enough to pose a serious threat to Barr.
With Barr’s gaffes, I figure using the logic I explained above, that he will be lucky to get as many votes as Badnarik, and will most likely get even less. I figure that the odds that Baldwin passes Barr are 1.5-1. I may be optimistic, but I still stand by my prediction that Baldwin will finish ahead of Barr.
As for Root, well, I never supported him because of his previous support for interventionism earlier in the campaign. Unlike Bob Barr, who I DO believe has been traveling the path toward libertarianism (he’s not there yet), Root converted to non-interventionism way too quickly for me to believe his “conversion” is sincere.
That said, I think he has done a fine job with his family (kudos for homeschooling as well) and is probably a good person on a personal level. Politically, I’m not so sure.
Steve LaBianca // Sep 23, 2008 at 10:15 am
Glad to see Mr. Trosper has seen the light. However, for me the case against voting for Barr/W.A.R. was solidified many, many moons ago.
It’s not a matter of seeing the light. It was simply a case of “enough is enough”.
I knew Bob Barr was not the perfect candidate, but I felt at the time he would do better as a candidate. He had the potential, but his campaign royally effed it up beyond belief.
I can tolerate a certain amount of mistakes and gaffes (and I was expecting a certain amount of them), but this entire “snubgate” fiasco was crossing the line.
Hugh, I think you’re being overly optimistic. Alot of Paul’s supporters are quite secular and many won’t be enthused once they look at the platform of the CP.
I’m glad that the Paul campaign seems to be secularizing the CP a good deal, but the party’s rep will still turn off a lot of Paul supporters.
I see Baldwin coming in at fifth, tops.
Mike G,
I think you underestimate that the Campaign for Liberty has over 100,000 members, of which few if any will vote for Barr after the events of the last few weeks. I haven’t seen any reason for Barr to outperform Badnarik, and every reason for him to underperform the 04 nominee. Any support Barr had from conservatives disintergrated with the Palin nomination, and any support Barr had from Ron Paul supporters disintergrated with Snubgate and its subsequent events. That leaves him with the people that vote Libertarian anyway, and he’s even lost support among that group, given the amount of purists that vote Libertarian regularly. I think that the inflow of Paul supporters into Team Baldwin will be enough to cancel out the effects of not having ballot access in several states.
I think that some of you folks might be caught in an “insider’s” bubble, overestimating the overall electoral impact of internal third party faction battles.
Barr is going to come in a disappointing (to his supporters) fourth place. I see him pulling in 500,000-600,000 votes, tops. Russ Verney’s fantasies of a Ross Perot style result will come to nothing and in the process both Barr and Root will burn most (if not all) of their bridges with the LP and its base.
And though Snubgate and Operation: Slap Ron Paul in the Face, and the subsequent Baldwin endorsement will hurt Barr, they won’t in and of themselves, move hundreds of thousands of votes. And they certainly won’t be enough to put Baldwin’s vote total past Barr’s.
Whatever our best wishes or hopes, Baldwin’s much smaller ballot access, his much smaller name recognition and his party’s overtly theocratic platform and reputation will guarantee at least a fifth place finish for the CP nominee.
Alot of online Paul supporters won’t be voting for Barr this year. Many of them may vote Baldwin and some may even vote Nader, but that won’t be enough to drop Barr down past fourth place.
Barr’s problems are actually much bigger than Snubgate and his continuing jackassery. Those things are just symptoms of it.
His biggest problem is that even with less than two months left until the Election, he STILL hasn’t even unified his party’s base behind him. Many of those that haven’t abandoned him, seem to view him as a bit of a “lesser evil” and hang on to him more out of party loyalty than any quality he possesses.
Even John McCain, who was plagued with a base that was unsure about him late into the race, picked a VP that calmed their apprehension to his candidacy. Barr had picked a running mate that exacerbated it.
Barr’s campaign and his rhetoric have seemed almost arrogant in their willingness to take the libertarian base for granted and instead focus on winning over disaffected Republican conservatives. He sometimes even uses the word “conservative” instead of libertarian.
He thought he was entitled to the Paul supporters and threw a fit when they didn’t feel obligated to support him. And he’s since acted in a way that practically DROVE Paul to endorse Baldwin, even if out of spite.
And the Sarah Palin nomination has silenced alot of disaffected Republicans and taken the wind out of the Barr/Root sails.
But not enough, I think, to knock him out of fourth or to let Baldwin overtake him.
Baldwin just plain lacks the ballot access in huge states like California and Texas. Access Barr has. That means tens of thousands of votes over Baldwin, who doesn’t have the Nader/Paul level name recognition to spur alot of voters to remember him, even if he’s not on their ballot.
While I would personally love to believe that Ralph Nader’s 2-5% poll numbers will play out on November 4th, I know this isn’t the case.
I think it’s a fair bet that he’ll come in third, especially given his ballot access, name recognition and status by many as the default protest vote. I even think he’s got a decent shot at 1% and 1 million votes, now that he’s on 46 ballots, but I don’t think we should get so caught up in believing what we want to have happen, versus what is likely to happen.
I adject my odds. I say that now, the odds are about 1.5-1 for Baldwin to get more votes than Barr.
Especially since Root already endorsed a McCain-led ticket before….
If Root and Palin are identical, why not note for the candidate who can win?
That’s what voters might reasonably ask themselves upon hearing Root’s comment.
I’m thinking of campaigning against Root in 2012, instead of for somebody. I’d go for Jingozian maybe, if his campaign actually tried…
30 people isn’t a rally. It’s a meeting.
I think Wayne is right. Obviously the female version of him attracts more media attention, and perhaps even some voters.
Therefore, I suggest that he go in drag to his next campaign appearances. If this theory of his proves out, he can have a sex change operation and breast implants before 2012. The LP can appeal to transgendered persons in the person of a candidate for its presidential nomination.
(“And they had to eat Robin’s minstrels. And there was much rejoicing.”)
30?
I’ve had over twice that for some of my campaign events.
This is sad because I thought that this could have been a good year for the LP. Wouldn’t be suprised if Baldwin does as good if not better.
If Root shows up at 2012 I think I am going to have to resist the urge to spit on his fancy shoes.
only 30 at a rally? That’s what you get when you’re anal-retentive about 9/11!
He can have it.
Or he can fight George Phillies for it.
I really think Barr/Root are preparing to endorse McCain/Palin. And I hope so, too.
I can see the similarity:
I wonder if Root is still serious about trying for the nomination in 2012.
Paul has now endorsed Baldwin. I read it on LRC.
BTW, with the recent events of Ron Paul endorsing Chuck Baldwin, the Barr snub of Ron Paul, the very distasteful Reason interview by W.A.R., the Jesse Helms praise by the Barr campaign, the failures in the ballot access, I am having trouble finding anything positive about this campaign.
The reason I can’t find anything . . . there isn’t anything!
Gene Trosper // Sep 23, 2008 at 8:37 am
And Root further solidifies the case against voting for the LP presidential ticket.
Glad to see Mr. Trosper has seen the light. However, for me the case against voting for Barr/W.A.R. was solidified many, many moons ago.
http://dailysource.org/palin
HAHAHAHAHAHAH
What a dope!
Root needs to realize people often have problems voting for idiots. Saying stuff like “A vote for Barack Obama is four more years of Karl Marx” makes Root sound like a right-wing idiot. Saying stuff like “[Palin is] the female version of Wayne Root” actually declares himself to be a right-wing idiot.
And Root further solidifies the case against voting for the LP presidential ticket.
Palin makes me effing gag.