In a brief item on his blog for The Politico, Charles Mahtesian says, “Third-party candidates, I’ve noticed, are poised to be key players in a number of upcoming governor’s races. It’s not yet clear who’s the next Angus King or Jesse Ventura, but there are a handful of states — including New Jersey in 2009, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Massachusetts — where candidates from outside the two major parties could either swing the election one way or another or flat out win.”
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“& you haven’t presented any evidence to support your claim either.”
Uhm, I believe that thing history is entirely on Mr. Knapps’ side in this.
I think maybe an increase in double digit returns by independents and third parties has a broader cultural effect of changing the voting public’s underlying assumption that a vote not for a Dem or Rep is a wasted small number of votes. I think 10%, 20+% shows a general shifting in public attitude toward the two ruling parties. maybe it makes people feel less like wackos or subversives for voting out side the major parties?
& you haven’t presented any evidence to support your claim either.
“So when I say an alliance could produce 40%, that is a VERY big deal. ”
No, it’s not. I might be if presented evidence that actually supported the claim, but you haven’t.
It’s not very likely that Whitney will win the gubernatorial election, but his chances of doing so are better, by several orders of magnitude, than the chances of a Milnes-[insert name here] presidential ticket topping 2% of the popular vote.
So he’d have to TRIPLE what he got last time to even be NEAR to the minimum to possibly win. See what we are dealing with? So when I say an alliance could produce 40%, that is a VERY big deal. Even that is only a plurality; 11% less than a majority.
In a three way race, 34% is the MINIMUM to possibly win. That would be an EXTREMELY close one.
T.P.R., well, yeah, a better showing is possible. But in the world of third party politics, 1% is a big deal. So 11 %, 12% etc. is possible. But so what?
Well the fact that he got an abnormal showing for a third party candidate (being about 10%), can give some, like me, the idea that he may get a better showing.
Zeleni, did you say “…for the win.”? Ha, Ha! Are you kidding? What gives you the idea he’s going to win? What are you drinking? What drug are you on?
Whitney is indeed running for Governor again. Thanks to the Democrats’ attempts to kick him off the ballot, he only had two months to campaign in 2006. He should be in a much better position to focus his campaign for the win.
I’ll predict Daggett gets less than 10 but more than 5 percent. This should swing the election to Corzine.
Daggett is using the same guy who did ads for Jesse Ventura and Paul Wellstone.
Don’t forget about the ALaska race. Don Wright has filed for Governor under the Alaskan Independence Party line. He obtained 5% last year against Don Young in the race for U.S. Congress. Taking 5% or more again could tip the race in Alaska.
I don’t think it’s possible to tell the effect Daggett will have on the race because it seems like he appeals to some independents and people from both major parties.
Isn’t Rich Whitney running in Illinois again? He got 10% of the vote last time he ran.
@5: I just did a round-up of promising independent candidates in the Northeast last week. See Dispel the Myth of the ‘Myth of the Independent Voter.
Both Chafee and Cahill may very well win in 2010. I don’t expect Daggett to win, as noted above. Pollina has proven his chops by beating a major-party candidate last cycle, but the big guns are lining up for the VT race and I think Pollina would be better-served by running for Lt. Gov (which he can do more easily now that Dubie will be vacating that seat).
New England looks like a hotbed of dissent in this case..
Good LOSERS, though. Practice makes perfect.
Without The Strategy, Libertarians & Greens are LOSERS.
The situation is pathetic. An Independent, like Ventura or Nader, even if they win, go to a legislature & judiciary filled with dems & reps. We need to sweep them out en masse. Throw the bums out! But don’t just replace them with more bums!
Chris Daggett won’t win but he can swing the election to Corzine in a close race.
If Christie decides to get in the gutter with Corzine alot of independent voters will get disgusted and vote for Daggett.
I predict Daggett takes more independent votes from Christie than he takes from Corzine.