According to a recent NBC poll on the presidential election, when presented with nameless choices for the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and No Labels, registered voters collectively favored them by a margin of 14% over potential nominees Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
The poll was conducted by Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies over a span of several days, from September 15 to September 19, and included 1,000 registered voters in its survey. Among these respondents, 848 were interviewed via cellphone. The poll’s statistical margin of error is ±3.10.
“If the election for president were held today, with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, a Green Party candidate, a Libertarian candidate, and a candidate from the No Labels party for whom would you vote?”
Respondents proceeded to list in order:
Donald Trump …………………………………………………….. 39
Joe Biden…………………………………………………………… 36
Libertarian candidate …………………………………………… 5
No Labels candidate ……………………………………………. 5
Green Party candidate …………………………………………. 4
Depends (VOL) ………………………………………………… 5
None (VOL) ……………………………………………………… 2
Other (VOL) …………………………………………………….. –
Not sure ………………………………………………………….. 4
Historically, polling conducted this far from the general election tends to overestimate the influence of emerging party and independent candidates. Additionally, polling that includes nameless candidate options often overlooks name recognition (or lack thereof) and the practical challenges of managing a comprehensive nationwide campaign and navigating individual state ballot access requirements.
Nonetheless, the fact that three nameless potential options have garnered double-digit support indicates a rising level of voter discontent with the Republican and Democratic Parties and their respective hypothetical nominees.
An NBC article analyzing the impact surrounding third parties produced in the wake of the polling data release shows that the White House is also aware of these concerns. These fears come in the context of an already closely contested race between Trump and Biden, further complicated by the presence of additional candidates that additionally impact the field.
According to NBC News, an individual familiar with White House discussions on third party candidates is quoted as saying, “It’s pretty f—ing concerning.”
A closer analysis of the data reveals several primary underlying reasons behind voters’ dissatisfaction with the leading candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties. A majority of respondents expressed ‘major concerns’ regarding Joe Biden’s mental and physical health (59%), as well as the four separate criminal and civil trials related to alleged wrongdoing by Donald Trump (52%). Additionally, a plurality of respondents shared similar ‘major concerns’ regarding Joe Biden’s potential awareness or involvement in his son, Hunter Biden’s, business dealings (45%).
Alternatively, a plurality of respondents believe that the same aging concerns do not apply to Trump, with 39% expressing no problem compared to 34% who do have such concerns.
Readers of Independent Political Report can access the polling data here.
Every single individual/group they asked approval rates for was negative. Best was Nikki Haley at 23/26. Biden 39/49. Trump 35/54. Kamala 31/51. DeSantis 28/48.