A recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University of the upcoming 2024 presidential election has included two independent candidates running for president. The poll surveyed voters’ thoughts on both a three-way scenario and a four-way scenario.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the former Democratic presidential candidate who declared his intention to run as an independent in early October, is presently receiving the support of 22% of voters in a three-way race featuring President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical three-way match-up featuring Biden, Trump, and Kennedy, Biden leads the field with a plurality, securing 39% of voter support. Trump closely follows with 36%, while Kennedy trails in third place with 22%.
In such a scenario, the poll finds that Kennedy has a steady foundation of support among party voters, with 14% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats choosing to back him over their respective frontrunners. Notably, independent voters provide him with a considerably larger base of support, with 36% choosing to back him when offered the choice compared to 31% for Trump and 30% of voters for Biden.
When broken down by age, voters aged 18 to 34 plurally support Kennedy, with 38% of such voters backing him, as opposed to 32% for Biden and 27% for Trump. The next most substantial age group favoring Kennedy is individuals aged 35 to 49, although Trump still leads with 40%, followed by Biden at 35%, and Kennedy in third place with 21%.
White voters predominantly throw their support behind Trump (43%, compared to Biden’s 37% and Kennedy’s 17%), while Black voters favor Biden (61%, with Kennedy at 24% and Trump at 12%). Among the surveyed Hispanic voters, Biden leads, but Kennedy is a close second (36% for Biden, 33% for Kennedy, and Trump in third with 27%)
When Dr. Cornel West, the former Green Party and People’s Party presidential hopeful-turned-independent, is introduced as a fourth potential choice, the race sees changes in specific demographics but minimal shifts from the previous results. Biden retains his lead with 36% of the vote, while Trump stays in second place with 35%. Kennedy’s support has diminished but remains significant at 19%, and West garners the support of 6% of voters.
All three previously mentioned candidates see their support bases fall slightly but remain unchanged. Still, Trump continues to lead with Republicans (82% unchanged), Biden with Democrats (79% down from 83%), and Kennedy with independents (33% down from 36%). Kennedy also saw his support with Republicans (12%) and Democrats (11%) shrink slightly. West meanwhile sees most of his support come from self-identified Democrats (6%) and independents (8%) but little from Republicans (1%).
Again, when broken down by age, voters aged 18 to 34 still favor Kennedy, with 31% of this age group endorsing him, compared to 29% for Biden, 27% for Trump, and 10% for West. Similarly, West’s next highest support base is also among surveyed voters aged 35 to 49, with 38% for Trump, 31% for Biden, 21% for Kennedy, and 8% for West.”
White voters continue to support Trump at a steady 43%, but both Biden and Kennedy experience a slight drop to 36% and 16%, respectively. West, on the other hand, garners the backing of 3% of surveyed white voters.
Within the Black community, there’s a notable shift with West’s inclusion. All three candidates see a decline in support among Black voters, with 55% favoring Biden, 20% for Kennedy, 15% for West, and 9% for Trump, who now ranks fourth in the field. Among Hispanic voters, Kennedy takes the lead in the presence of West, securing 34% compared to Biden’s 32%. Trump maintains his third position with nearly the same 26%, and West secures fourth place with 7% of surveyed Hispanic voters.
Quinnipiac also surveyed the favorability ratings of both independent candidates. The results show that Kennedy has a higher unfavorable rating compared to those who view him favorably, with 36% having a negative opinion, 31% holding a favorable view, and 31% who have not heard of him. In West’s case, he remains largely unknown, with 69% of respondents being unfamiliar with him, while 18% view him negatively and 12% view him positively.
A more detailed look shows that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is viewed more favorably by Republicans (41%) and independents (39%) compared to his former Democrats (14%). Other demographic groups that hold a more favorable opinion of Kennedy include men (36% to 33%), voters aged 18 to 34 (33% to 24%), voters aged 35 to 49 (37% to 34%), and Hispanic voters (48% to 28%).
Regarding Cornel West, he is perceived more favorably by independent voters (13% to 12%), voters aged 18 to 34 (10% to 9%), voters aged 50 to 64 (17% to 16%), and Hispanic voters (17% to 10%). Among the Black community, opinions on West are divided, with 25% of these voters having an unfavorable view compared to 24% with a favorable view.
The poll, conducted from October 26th to 30th, surveyed 1,610 self-identified registered voters nationwide and has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Among them, 666 were Republican and Republican-leaning voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, while 695 were Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. For more detailed polling data, readers of Independent Political Report can visit the Quinnipiac University website here.
How’s ballot access going?
So RFK is the groundhog candidate? If he stays in, we get four more years of Biden…
Now if only a few real parties, such as the greens or libertarians, could get candidates up in that polling range.