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Dan Jones Poll: Johnson at 16 Percent in Utah

By Joseph Buchman, PhD on August 8, 2016 3:28 PM

utahJohnsonJulypoll

A Dan Jones & Associates survey conducted July 18 – August 4, 2016 among 858 likely Utah voters shows Trump 37, Clinton 25 and Johnson 16.  The Website fivethirtyeight.com rates this poll as a “C+” and awards Johnson 12.2 percent after weighting and including other polls.  (“The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll based on other factors.”)  Fivethirtyeight.com estimates the current odds of winning Utah’s Electoral College votes as follows (note the sliver of gold between the blue and red bars represents Governor Johnson’s odds of about one-half of one percent):

Utah odds

An article by UtahPolicy.com titled “Donald Trump Maintains Lead in Utah; Libertarian Gary Johnson Surging” asks,

“Could a Clinton finish third in Utah again?

“A new UtahPolicy.com survey suggests Hillary Clinton could be on a path to repeat the ignominious defeat suffered by her husband Bill in Utah 22 years ago.  Our survey shows Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson is surging among Utah voters, picking up 6 points in the last month.”

The full article can be read HERE.

Joseph Buchman, PhD

Joe is a retired, formerly tenured professor of marketing and finance with a passion for adventure travel, chasing total solar eclipses, and Burning Man. He is a long-time volunteer with the Sundance, Sonoma, and Napa Valley Film Festivals, former Chair of the Utah Libertarian Party, former Chair of the LP Platform Committee, and former Chair and three-term member of the LNC's financial Audit Committee. Dr. Buchman has served as a Contributing Editor for IPR since 2011.

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7 Comments

  1. Tony From Long Island August 9, 2016

    According to the Rachel Maddow show last night (hosted by Steve Kornacki), the 14% for “other” is, indeed, write-in’s for Mittens. So, unless they were just making it up out of thin air, they must have a source.

    If Castle got 14% in ANY poll, it would be plastered all over here. Plus, Castle couldn’t get 14% in his own hometown! I hope you weren’t serious with that suggestion.

  2. Tony From Long island August 9, 2016

    No, it was a big point on Rachel Maddow last night (hosted by Steve Kornacki) that the “other” was Mitt Romney. So unless he was just pulling that out of thin air, he must have gotten it from somewhere.

    And . . . you can’t be serious that Castle would get 14% ANYWHERE! He couldn’t get 14% in his own household! Plus, if he did, it would be plastered all over here.

  3. AMcCarrick August 9, 2016

    Tony From Long Island or the Constitution Party.

  4. Tony From Long Island August 9, 2016

    The “Other” are people in Utah saying they would write in Mitt Romney.

  5. George Phillies August 8, 2016

    For poll aggregation of 4-way polls: RealClearPolitics.com.

  6. Be Rational August 8, 2016

    Latest Monmoth Poll: nationwide:

    Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein

  7. Nvg August 8, 2016

    14% other?

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