Alaska Survey Research released a poll of 605 likely special election voters in Alaska’s upcoming U.S. House race to replace the recently deceased Don Young. The top 4 finishers in the first round of voting will advance to the general election, where ranked choice voting will determine a winner.
Barring a major shakeup in the race, the top 3 spots appear to be locked down for Republicans Sarah Palin (19%), Nick Begich (16%) and independent Al Gross (13%). In the battle for fourth place, North Pole city councilman Santa Claus (seriously) is holding a tenuous lead, polling at 6%. Another 8 candidates (including Republicans, Democrats and independents with serious political experience in state government) are all polling somewhere between 2% and 5%, which theoretically puts them all within the poll’s 4% margin of error.
…Revak 4%
Lowenfels 3%
Wool 2%
Halcro 2%
Coghill 2%Other 4%
Undecided 16%It’s a mad scramble for 4th, with Santa Claus occupying that slot in this poll. Constant and Peltola appear to be the strongest D’s, with Sweeney and Revak vying for the 4th spot on the R side.
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— Ivan Moore 🇺🇦 (@IvanMoore1) May 10, 2022
The polling firm then sampled a variety of Top 4 scenarios, all of which lead to the elimination of both Sarah Palin and whoever finishes fourth in the early round. In a one-on-one battle between Republican Nick Begich and independent Al Gross, Begich holds a significant but not insurmountable lead.
Interestingly, of the various possible fourth place finishers, Santa Claus performs the strongest in the general election…
Each of the matchups are similar, with 4th place eliminated first in the RCV. Palin is eliminated second in each scenario, with Begich winning each time.
Of the 4th finishers tested, Santa makes the strongest showing in the general!
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— Ivan Moore 🇺🇦 (@IvanMoore1) May 10, 2022
As an overweight older guy with white hair and a beard, I feel like I have a favorite in this contest…
Santa Claus would fit right in in Washington these days.