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Your Election Predictions- A Retrospective View

Predictions come from this article.

Darryl Perry: 100% of seats in Congress will be won by members of the Republicratic Duopoly

Since Lisa Murkowski plans to stay a Republican in the Senate in the aftermath of her write-in bid, this is true. Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida, had the strongest Independent bid for Senate with 29.7% of the vote. In the House, former Representative Jim Traficant finished with 16.1% and the strongest Independent performance in that body.

A “minor party” or “independent”candidate will get a higher percentage of the vote than a “major party” candidate for at least one statewide race in Colorado, Florida & SC

In Colorado, Tom Tancredo finished stronger than his Republican opponent. In South Carolina, Green candidate Tom Clements underperformed with 9.5% of the vote (Democrat Alvin Greene surged to almost 30%, likely due to straight ticket voters). In Florida, Charlie Crist did outperform Democrat Kendrick Meek in the Senate race.

P:ete Healey: Rent is Too Damn High (Jimmy McMillan) Party will be the only one of 5 independent candidacies in New York State that will achieve the 50,000 vote threshold to reach automatic ballot status for the next four years

McMillan did not approach the 50,000 vote threshold. Green Howie Hawkins did, in fact, reach this threshold. Libertarian Warren Redlich almost reached the threshold, but appears to have stalled at around 44,000 votes. He will likely gain some number of votes as counting continues, so we will not know for sure until December. Charles Barron’s Freedom Party and Kristin Davis’ Anti-Prohibition Party did not achieve 50,000 votes.

George Tatevosyan: At least 3 congressional elections stolen by hacking of electronic machines in districts where the boards of elections are controlled by incumbent appointees and their data processing vendors.

I have not seen any substantial or particularly egregious examples of vote fraud in the media this election. That being said, this does not mean vote fraud did not occur. See this blog for some interesting tales of voter woe from election day.

Election result lawsuits and challenges to vote disqualification processes for late receipt of mail-in ballots and discarded paper ballots (especially in Alaska).

Fairly standard operating practice these days in tight races.

Republican doing worse than expected, 3rd party and independents doing better than ever before and mainstream media downplaying this development.

Republicans did worse in the Senate than expected, losing races they needed to win in Colorado, Washington, West Virginia, Nevada and California. However, Republicans dominated in the House.

Third parties posted a few strong results that overperformed anticipations- state legislators in 9-10 states, Eliot Cutler’s latebreaking surge in the gubernatorial race in Maine, and Lincoln Chafee’s victory in the Rhode Island gubernatorial race. However, no Independents or minor party candidates exceeded 20% in a US House race with two major party candidates; only one did so in a Senate race. Three third party candidates broke 30% in a gubernatorial race- Lincoln Chafee, Eliot Cutler and Tom Tancredo. All three received hefty media attention.

Derek:  Chafee wins the Governor’s race in RI
– Tancredo could win or lose the race in CO but it will be a 3% swing either way
– The ME independent will finish in a strong 2nd in the Governor’s race
– Clements will finish with 25% or more
– Crist will get 30%ish but will finish in 2nd – Whitney will poll 5%ish for Governor in IL

Chafee did, in fact, win the Rhode Island Governor’s race. It is worth noting that Independents/minor party candidates did not win in either the Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General’s race, despite strong performances. Tancredo under-performed in the Colorado gubernatorial race. Dan Maes reconsolidated a bit of Republican support to end with 11% as the Tanc scooped up 37%. Eliot Cutler in Maine finished with 36.5%, within 2% of the Republican victor Paul LePage. Crist finished second as previously noted, although under 30%. Clements underperformed as noted. Whitney finished with 2.7%.

Catholic Trotskyist:Democrats keep the House, losing only about 25 seats. Democrats lose only 1 net seat in the Senate; we will lose Arkansas, North Dakota and Indiana, while winning all of the close races we need to win to hold our seats, and upset Republicans in Missouri and New Hampshire!
Joe Miller survives Murkowski write-in campaign in Alaska, Rand Paul wins Kentucky, Rubio wins Florida, Tancredo loses in Colorado. Democrats generally do well with governorships.
Libertarians, Greens and Constitution Party do slightly better than in previous elections for many races, but don’t come even close to winning

It is likely that Murkowski wins the Senate race, although the write-ins still must be verified for her to secure victory. Minor party candidates had a mixed record- some did better than previous years, others underperformed expectations (Rich Whitney and Kathie Glass come to mind). Rubio and Rand did win their races. Republicans did not sweep the Senate, but they did secure Missouri and New Hampshire.

Alaska Constitution Party: Alaska LP fails to obtain 3% of vote and is decertified, losing automatic ballot access.

Alaska AIP fails to obtain 3% of vote, thus continuing its slide towards ballot decertification.

The Libertarian received 1.01% of the vote; AIP received 1.86% of the vote.

George Whitfield: The Libertarian party obtains ballot status in New York, New Hampshire and Iowa. Also the following Libertarian Party candidates for state legislature win election:

No Libertarians won state legislative races, although some posted strong showings in their recspective bids. It appears that the LP fell short of ballot access in all three states, although we will not know for sure until December in New York.

Darryl Perry: I think Andrea Garcia will make a strong showing against the “author” of SB1070 Russell Pearce in AZ.

Pearce easily won re-election. However, Garcia did pull 8.86% of the vote, a strong showing in a 3-way race for state legislature.

Catholic Trotskyist: Mike Kavlan gets less than 1% of the vote.

This appears true. Two other Independents seem to have split the non-major party vote. [Editorial Confession: I mentioned Cavlan to a relative as a possible alternative to Ellison].

Citizen1: #1. In CO the governors race will be decided by less than 1%.
#2. Janine Hansen will win.
#3. Republicans will win control of the the US House and US Senate.
#4. Republicans will but the same losers that helped get us into this mess back into leadership position squeezing out and marginalizing to the best of there ability any good Republicans that get elected.
#5. John Mertens will get 1% of the vote for US Senate in CT thereby setting up the possibility of a Connecticut for Lieberman candidate running against Lieberman.
#6. Chelene nightingale will get the most votes of any AIPCA candidate further frustrating the hijackers of the party.

Hansen lost in her race, despite a strong performance. Tancredo underperformed as previously noted. Republicans swept the House but underperformed in the Senate. Mertens polled only 0.6% of the vote; Independent Party candidate Warren Mosler polled 1%. Whichever faction you align with, Chelene Nightingale outperformed the comparable Ed Noonan in the US Senate race.

Dominik:  LeAlan might get double digits with African American vote. Democrats will blame illinois loss on Greens. Krapen will lose because of the funky issues with the voting machines.

Karpen received 35% of the vote, outperforming his last run but still well short of victory. Despite endorsements from the major newspapers, he still had the problem of fundraising and a prominent namebrand  minor party candidates traditionally face.

LeAlan Jones finished with 3.2%; Libertarian Mike Labno received 2.4%.

  Robert Capozzi: In the morning, the sun will rise. It will set in the evening. Between those events, there will be daylight. Before and after them, it will be dark.
Very astute. This prediction was probably the most accurate of them all.

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  1. paulie paulie November 15, 2010

    Well, you did cite some polling evidence that was reasonably close to that.

    BTW, if Daniel is not going to do Part II of the predictions vs results, I will.

  2. Peter Gemma Peter Gemma November 15, 2010

    Confession is good for the soul said Thomas Aquinas: I said Crist would run third in FL – perhaps that was wishful thinking.

  3. paulie paulie November 14, 2010

    Going once….

  4. paulie paulie November 10, 2010


    Do you still plan on tackling the rest of the predictions?

  5. paulie paulie November 10, 2010

    That would be ds, not pc. Article posted by Daniel Surman.

    I did post the original article asking for predictions. And I awarded bc the “safe bet” crown for that prediction.

    But then, I had to give it away to JT for making an even safer prediction:

    “Milnes will complain that nobody tried PLAS. Milnes will call many people losers and assholes. Milnes will beg for $ and sleep in his trailer.”

  6. Robert Capozzi Robert Capozzi November 10, 2010

    pc: Very astute. This prediction was probably the most accurate of them all.

    me: I feel I’ve won the Oscar for Best Director. 😉 Not only was my prediction true for election day, there has been daily validation since then of my sunrise/sunset theorem.

    If this pattern persists, I think my next project to tackle will be to answer the question: “Why is the sky blue?” I’m aware that others have attempted an explanation, but I don’t believe we’ve gotten the definitive explanation.

  7. pete healey pete healey November 9, 2010

    @Ross, we have a history, me and the Greens. Howie is now talking about supporting “nonpartisan redistricting” so PR may have been just “PR” if ya know what ah mean? Anyway I was certain that both Jimmy McM. and Charles Barron would take votes from the Greens, but Barron’s vote total was the lowest among all the minor party candidates.

  8. Ross Ross November 9, 2010

    Daniel, I didn’t mean fraud. And there’s a difference (often partisan, bizzarely, although not unexpectedly) between VOTER and ELECTION fraud. But there were certainly voting irregularities this year.

    Although, you’re right, the quote in question did talk about literally stealing elections.

    Yeah, I was just letting you know about the Alvin Greene thing.

  9. Daniel Surman Daniel Surman November 9, 2010

    @Ross, the problem with vote fraud is that it is typically hard to prove it happened. Viting irregularities does not equal fraud. Now, does that mean fraud doesn’t happen? Of course not!

    But to be able to point into instances like the quote in question and say, “Three races or more were stolen” is hardly provable. And the “Alvin Green” in question was a typo. I should have explained my thought process behind that more effectively, which I will fix.

  10. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    Yes, and, the“Rent is too damn high caucus” in the LP joins Jimmy McMillan in saying….if you want to marry a shoe, we’ll marry you.

  11. Darryl W. Perry Darryl W. Perry November 9, 2010

    @Paulie – would you join a “Rent is too damn high caucus” in the LP to try getting the LP HQ moved out of the Watergate & into a cheaper office?

  12. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    Rent Is Still. Too. Damn. High.

    Sho nuff!

  13. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    @9 Feel free to fix simple factual errors like that.

  14. pete healey pete healey November 9, 2010

    Don’t mind me. I have a personal thing with Howie and the Greens, so I can’t see or think straight when it comes to them. And the Rent Is Still. Too. Damn. High.

  15. Ross Ross November 9, 2010

    That should say “Green Tom Clements” not “Green Alvin Greene” near the beginning.

  16. Daniel Surman Daniel Surman November 9, 2010

    @1 very true. I will edit it before I head out.

    @3 I said appeared because it doesn’t look like he will get ballot access at this moment. Although I wrongly called it once before, so I am apt to have done so again.

    @4 which races are these? I actually did just remember Chris Dwyer in Missouri, who finished with 22% in a two-way race. But most others did not fare so well, including a few Libertarians in Texas and Vanke and Bain in the Virginia.

  17. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    George Whitfield: The Libertarian party obtains ballot status in New York, New Hampshire and Iowa. Also the following Libertarian Party candidates for state legislature win election:

    DS: No Libertarians won state legislative races, although some posted strong showings in their recspective bids. It appears that the LP fell short of ballot access in all three states.

    P] Remains to be seen as far as NY.

  18. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    no Independents or minor party candidates exceeded 20% in a US House race;

    This is only true in races that had both a Democrat and Republican running.

  19. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    Libertarian Warren Redlich almost reached the threshold, but appears to have stalled at around 44,000 votes.

    Votes are still being counted. We won’t know a final answer until December.

  20. paulie paulie November 9, 2010

    “In Colorado both Kathleen Curry (I) and Tom Tancredo finished stronger than Republican opponents.”

    I don’t think that was a statewide race.

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