Independent Political Report reads at Mediaite.com that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will run for President as an independent. He is expected to announce in Philadelphia on Monday, October 9. He is said to cite as a major reason for his campaign that the Democratic National Committee is changing their party’s nominating rules to exclude his candidacy. His campaign committee is now planning attack ads against the Democratic National Committee to “pave the way” for his campaign announcement.
For more details, see the Mediaite article at https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/
RFK Jr. attended Freedomfest, which is an annual libertarian events, which was in Memphis, Tennessee this year. Angela McArdle was also at Freedomfest and the two of them did have a conversation while there.
RFK Jr. also attended Porcfest, an annual libertarian event put on by The Free State Project in New Hampshire.
RFK Jr. was interviewed by Nick Gillespei Reason.
So RFK Jr. was either testing the waters with libertarians or at least trying to court some libertarians to vote for him.
Andy,
Further, based on your answer, it sounds like you are suggesting that that RFK is likely to be a better president either than Trump or Biden. If so, and in the months prior to the LP Convention, RFK was polling at say 20%, would that change your mind?
If Amash endorsed RFK, and RFK indicated that Justin would get a cabinet post (maybe Atty General), is it your sense that RFK could win the nomination?
thanks, Andy.
Is it your sense that your position on RFK is the majority of likely delegates?
And are there ways to block RFK supporters from becoming delegates to the LNC convention?
Did RFK actually meet with the LP Chair?
Would I support RFK Jr. getting the Libertarian Party’s presidential nomination?
I think RFK Jr. is good for a Democrat, and he sounds better than most mainstream politicians from either of the major parties, but this does not make him a libertarian.
I am of the belief that the Libertarian Party should only run candidates who are at least fairly strong libertarians, and who have a prior track record of being libertarians (I include small “l” libertarians, as in those who are libertarians but are not members of the Libertarian Party) before they announce that they are seeking a nomination to be a Libertarian Party candidate.
So, even though there are things I like about RFK Jr., I am going to have to say no to him as a Libertarian Party candidate.
He would have been a great candidate for the Democratic Party if Democratic Party officials were not sabotaging his efforts, and he will be a good independent candidate if this is the route he chooses.
Who am I supporting for the Libertarian Party’s presidential nomination? I am not really supporting anyone now. It is still early and a lot can happen between now and the 2024 Libertarian National Conventiin.
Colorado changed its law for independent candidates. They now require 12,000 valid petition signatures.
A: I was hoping that the Libertarian Party would have the top alternative to the D and R candidates in the presidential race, but it looks like the LP’s ticket will likely get overshadowed by RFK Jr., much like the LP’s presidential ticket got overshadowed in thd past by the likes of John Anderson, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan.
me: Would you support RFK getting the LP’s nomination? If not, who are you supporting?
If RFK Jr. went full Independent route, these ballots are easy:
Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Oklahoma (if he wants to fork up $35k), Tennessee, Vermont. There’s some single state presidential party nominations he could buy if he wants: New York Independence Party (they need ballot access though), Florida Reform Party, Michigan Natural Law Party. He could be the kind of guy the Alaska Independence Party or the California AIP would back.
“I guess this might keep his options open vis a vis a potential LP or No Labels opportunity.”
RFK Jr. is not the “No Labels” type.
Per Ballot Access News’ September 2023 Print Edition, the Libertarians have presidential ballot access in 34 states. Greens 17, Constitution 12, No Labels 10, Working Families 3. No Labels have finished ballot access drives in Kansas, Ohio, and South Carolina.
Where ballot access drives cannot start yet: Connecticut (Libertarians already on), D.C. (Greens already on), Georgia (Libertarians already on), Illinois, Kentucky, New York (Working Families already on), Pennsylvania, Texas (Libertarians and Greens already on), Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin (Libertarians, Greens, and Constitution already on).
https://ballot-access.org/2023/09/26/September-2023-ballot-access-news-print-edition/
Rocky de la Fuente, Brock Pierce and Kanye West did not get on many ballots because they started their ballot access drives too late in the cycle. Brock Pierce and Kanye West did not even start running until July of the election year. That was way too late to start if one wants to get on a lot of ballots. None of the three had any volunteers or any real political following.
RJK Jr. has a real political following and I expect that he could get a better than average effort for ballot access from volunteers. If RFK Jr. announces he is switching to running as an independent he will be getting a much earlier start that did Rocky de la Fuente, Brock Pierce and Kanye West. RFK Jr. has also shown that he can raise millions of dollars.
RFK Jr. getting ballot access as an independent will be a big job and it would cost a lot of money. I could see it costing $30 million, maybe more, maybe a bit less depending on how strong of an effort he gets from volunteers. I think that he is capable of raising enough money to do it.
I was hoping that the Libertarian Party would have the top alternative to the D and R candidates in the presidential race, but it looks like the LP’s ticket will likely get overshadowed by RFK Jr., much like the LP’s presidential ticket got overshadowed in thd past by the likes of John Anderson, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan.
Just finished listening to RFK on Theo Von’s pod that dropped 4 days ago. Among the things mentioned, RFK mentioned he’d recently gone hiking with Tulsi Gabbard. As mentioned in the “RFK, Jr. as 2024 LP Presidential Candidate?” thread, Kennedy/Gabbard might make a very interesting ticket, particularly if the main match up is Trump v Biden, who IMO are both unfit.
For Republicans rejoicing over this move? You might want to think again, per my piece and polling by duopoly membership on RFK’s favorability plus/minus: https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2023/09/rfk-jr-going-independent.html
As for details of whether this was an “announcement” or a “leak,” the story says “Mediaite has learned.” If a “leak,” IMO, it was probably semi-deliberate if not fully so.
Indeed, look at the third graf of the story:
“Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go,” a Kennedy campaign insider told Mediaite. And per reporting elsewhere, Kennedy had that “major announcement” video for Oct. 9 already in the tank.
We all know “deliberate leaks” happen, George. And, per Spock in STTOS, on “deliberate leak” vs “announcement” — “a difference that makes no difference is no difference.”
If this really was “accidental seepage,” that would speak a lot about Kennedy campaign staff issues.
And no way No Labels would ever nominate RFK Jr., he is way too far from their agenda.
Unless RFK Jr. has a billionaire or a number of multi-millionaire backers willing to burn cash towards urgrent timed ballot petitioning drives he will not gain more than 25 State access at best. You can see this in the fact that millionaires who ponied up some of their own cash towards runs in 2020 only ended up under 20 State access (e.g. Rocky de la Fuente, who also used the strategy of getting the nomination of a bunch of single State moderate parties, only achieved 15 States on the Alliance/American Delta/Reform/etc. lines); Brock Pierce only got 16 State ballot lines; Kanye West only got 12 State ballot lines.
Given this, I think RFK Jr.s team will find out about the logistics of an independent run soon enough, and then come running to the LP (or maybe the Green Party, who he lines up as far as economic and energy platform way better, but where he would find less current ballot access, and very stiff competition from Cornel West for the nomination) just to have ballot access.
Thanks for the clarifications, all. The Bing result did sound awfully low.
This vid seems to confirm that RFK will bolt the Ds.
https://rumble.com/v3lvogd-save-the-date.-save-the-country..html
The lesson here is that AI searches routinely produce worthless nonsense.
Please do not post AI-sourced information here in the future.
Hey, Capozzi…
Florida LP access is basically automatic. Another AI lie?
Thanks for the heads up.
All-
I agree RFK JR has some ballot access hurdles he may be underestimating.
Robert Capozzi, your numbers for LP ballot access are way off. LP ballot access is in much better shape than you are indicating.
No Labels Party has completed a lot more than 10 ballot access drives. They are either sitting on the signatures or they are still checking them in some states.
Tennessee only requires 275 valid petition signatures to place an independent presidential ticket on the ballot. It is much harder to do a minor party petition there which is why minor party candidates for President almost always do the independent petition there.
Getting ballot access in a sufficient number of states to be a viable candidate will take a knowledgeable and competent project team to manage it, a large number of volunteers to gather the signatures and a whole lot of money to accomplish.
He didn’t post it. Mediaite leaked it.
Responding to Robert Capozzi:
In 2022, according to the LP, the party had 30 state ballot access. In the run up to 2024, efforts are being made to increase this to closer to 40. New York state seems to me a loss unless the US Supreme Court decides to overturn that state’s draconian ballot access requirements. There are other legal challenges that if successful will grow the count. Some states like TN need to attract a better funded presidential campaign to meet the increased petition requirement there.
Also, doesn’t RFK Jr. know you’re not supposed to post news like this during Friday afternoon news dump time, especially when government shutdown stuff is sucking oxygen out of the air? Off to write something.
Apparently, No Labels has 10 state ballot access, according to Bing AI.
Not sure Bing AI is correct about the LP, ballot access but it says this:
According to the web search results, the Libertarian Party has ballot access for 2024 in 15 states as of May 2023. These states are: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming12. However, some states may have pending legislation or lawsuits that could affect the party’s status in the future2. The party will have to petition for ballot access in the remaining 35 states and the District of Columbia1234. This is a challenging task, as some states have very strict requirements for alternative parties to qualify for the ballot3. The party aims to achieve 50-state ballot access for its presidential nominee by May 20241.
Per New Federalist (I saw the news first at BAN), I think RFK doesn’t get the ballot access difficulty issues.
Though, if you’ve got Kennedy money to blow, you can fork out for paid signature gatherers in states that allow it.
You’ve also got to round up independent electors and other things.
I guess this might keep his options open vis a vis a potential LP or No Labels opportunity.