Part III posted on 3PW Today.
At different times, political parties have been locked in debate as to the correct strategy to use. After 2000, the Green Party debated whether or not it should campaign vigorously in all fifty states, or whether it should abstain from campaigning in states where it might cause the Democratic Presidential candidate to lose again.
Now the Libertarian Political Movement is at the same juncture. Internet polling, admittedly not of unlimited reliability, suggests that libertarians are divided between five alternatives, given their current national leadership. These alternatives are
- support the Mises caucus in its efforts to bring about a Libertarian renaissance
- take back control of the party from the Mises caucus
- launch a new pro-liberty party
- work to infiltrate and take over the Democratic Party
- work to infiltrate and take over the Republican Party
An open, polite, mentally coherent debate on these alternatives is needed. If other third parties find themselves in similar boats, Independent Political Report will happily support similar debates for those parties.
Because we expect that the debate may involve candidate advocacy, the debate will take place on our sister newspaper Third Party Watch.
A Discussion of a New Party Proposal is found in Third Party Watch.
Jim, so in a short 4 years the cost of producing energy has dropped by a third. You are making my case for me. No need to argue. If I am right in under another 10 years we will see if energy continues to drop and productivity grows exponentially.
Part 3 of a new party approach (there could be several of these) Now up at ThirdPartyWatch.com .
The $35/MWh you quoted was from 2019. The $24/MWh is the estimate from earlier this year. I was providing more up to date numbers, and qualifying what it applied to – onshore wind in optimal areas without tax subsidies. Some places can get that, but it isn’t a real number in most of the world.
The Tesla model 3 is “solar powered” in that, you have the option to plug it in and get electricity sourced from the sun. The solar powered electric vehicles in the works have photovoltaic cells on the car itself. The 2023 Toyota Prius has a solar powered roof, but it isn’t very good. At best it provides a handful of miles of charge per day. The ones coming in 2025 are an order of magnitude better.
Even if resource extraction was infinite and free – neither of which is going to happen – there are other constraints. For example: even if lumber was free and unlimited there are only so many 10,000 square foot houses that can be built in Malibu, there are only so many 10/10 non-robot strippers selling lap dances, and the supply of old authentic human crafted art and memorabilia will always be finite. Money won’t go to zero. Demand will shift from some goods and services which are currently limited to others which will be limited in the future. Unlimited everything is impossible.
$24/mwh is 2.4 cents per kwh well under the 3.5 cents I quoted. And that price is dropping.
You can buy a brand new Tesla model 3 for under $36k before the federal tax credit.
It isn’t that AI and almost free energy will eliminate jobs it is that it will eliminate resource scarcity. We have no shortage of raw materials. It is that because of the cost of energy and labor that some resources are not economical to extract today. ????
When resources become unconstrained then the value of money will drop.
The unsubsidized levelized cost of onshore wind is down to $24/MWh. That’s about the lowest cost energy source and about on par with utility scale solar. But, solar and wind aren’t practical everywhere and that’s still a long way from free. Solar has more long term potential, I think. There is a tentatively priced $40,000 solar powered electric vehicle projected to begin production in late 2025. That would wreck havoc on the claims of certain left parties that capitalism can do nothing to solve climate change.
AI and robotics will eliminate some jobs and probably create others, but it will never eliminate all jobs or money. People in the Star Wars films still had jobs and used money and they had robots.
I ask that if the cost of energy drops to near zero. (Wind generated power is under 3.5 cents per kwh)
And If the cost of labor drops to near zero with the arrival of AI controlled robotics that are world aware and trainable will not the cost of goods also drop to near zero?
I’d so will this also make $ useless and the budget deficit meaningless?
“we’re likely going to hit the wall and not be able to fully fund Social Security before 2030. What is our powerbrokers in Washington going to do?
SS doesn’t have to be “funded.” DC will simply print money for pay for SS, like it does for everything else.”
Which will make our financial situation even worse.
“Libertarians’ job is to spread economic truth
Vast numbers of Americans, perhaps a majority, don’t give a damn about “economic truth.” They’ll demand their free stuff until the country collapses, even if they know their demands will lead the the country’s collapse. Their logic is: I’ve gotta get as much as I can before the collapse.”
And when it collapses what worth is your stuff? The types that can afford fancy accountants and keep stuff hidden moving money abroad are not your everyday American. Everything points to our interest rates for the long-term future will stay where they are now, may go higher, and you have a whole generation of people raised on “you don’t need a down payment, debt is dirt cheap”. Let alone normal people, businesses too. They’re right now praying get back to centuries-low debt interest rates by 2025 when it rolls over.
Part 3 of this series is up at ThirdPartyWatch.com
The Federal Reserve only controls the money supply indirectly, for the most part. The vast majority of money (like 90% – 97%) is created when commercial banks lend money. The Federal Reserve influences the rate of money creation by encouraging or discouraging borrowing through the manipulation of interest rates.
When Social Security runs a deficit, it’s intragovernmental debt will be repaid by the non-SS part of government, which is funded by taxes and borrowing. So, in the sense that new lending creates money, when the government borrows more to repay Social Security’s so-called trust fund, then it will be creating money at that point. That may also be accompanied by raising the income tax and FICA taxes.
The government does not pay for itself by printing money. In fact, money supply has recently been declining. You are conflating the Federal Reserve Bank, which does control the money supply, with the Treasury, which funds the deficit by issuing bonds.
The Social Security Administration absent new Congressional action, cannot call on the Treasury to give it money.
we’re likely going to hit the wall and not be able to fully fund Social Security before 2030. What is our powerbrokers in Washington going to do?
SS doesn’t have to be “funded.” DC will simply print money for pay for SS, like it does for everything else.
Libertarians’ job is to spread economic truth
Vast numbers of Americans, perhaps a majority, don’t give a damn about “economic truth.” They’ll demand their free stuff until the country collapses, even if they know their demands will lead the the country’s collapse. Their logic is: I’ve gotta get as much as I can before the collapse.
Libertarians’ main problem is that if the vast majority of Americans know what libertarianism was, they wouldn’t want it.
Altworlder- I like your suggestion the best so far.
Why not take over the Constitution Party, they have ballot access but seem moribund. Branding would fit the Libertarians, just need to heavily scale back the theocracy stuff.
It’s unfair of me in my previous post to say only Biden may have the historical legacy of Herbert Hoover before all is said and done. Trump is Biden’s equal as far as poor fiscal management. They’re both together coule be a kind of Franklin Pierce/James Buchanan one-two punch, just on an economic scale instead of preceding Civil War.
You don’t have the numbers to do 4 and 5 outside of areas where the 2 main parties are completely moribund and only exist on paper. Rural counties throughout this country that are predominantly white and not a ski village, the Democratic Party does not exist as far as exercising political strength or putting forth effort in political races. Go to Chicago, New York City, Washington, D.C., the Republican Party might as well not exist. So even if you succeeded in taking those area, you accomplished what exactly? And if you do that, there are going to be people that completely ignore everything you say and do and presume you’re the exact same as the people at the national level because our country’s politics have become heavily nationalized and localism is pretty much dead, as can be seen in the dearth of urban Republicans and rural Democrats. Let alone at federal level, look at state and county levels. In Indiana, there are 92 counties. Republicans have monopoly power somewhere in the 70s of those.
The path is the Libertarian alternative replaces whichever 2nd-place only exists on paper national party affiliate as the only organization providing a credible alternative to the main party. Republicans are not providing an alternative to Democratic Party leadership in Chicago and many other major cities. Democrats are not providing an alternative to Republican Party leadership across vast swathes of Appalachia, the upper Midwest, the Plains states, and the Rocky Mountain states. So when people get angry and upset, you’re the only alternative.
This is not a snap your fingers and it gets done tomorrow, it’s something that at minimum probably will take a decade. But I am hopeful however simply because our country’s finances are completely wrecked. Zerohedge had a tweet yesterday saying we added $275 billion to the debt…in a single day. National debt is at $33 trillion, we spend more on interest on the debt now than we do on national defense per Bloomberg News, Treasury yields are skyrocketing (treasury yields going up = everyone is selling them) and are at levels last seen in 2008, we’re generating record levels of debt issuance, 30-year mortgage rates are at 8% a level not reached since 2000, we’re likely going to hit the wall and not be able to fully fund Social Security before 2030. What is our powerbrokers in Washington going to do? We know what Democrats are going to do, and we know what Republicans are going to do as well. “In the long run, we’re all dead.” The long run is now, we’re living it at this moment. And Joe Biden could have the historical legacy of Herbert Hoover before all is said and done. I just know expecting the Republicans to take the reins and fix it is illogical when Trump is going to be their nominee most likely and Trump in his 4 years as President demonstrated pretty clearly he does not believe in small limited government.
Libertarians’ job is to spread economic truth and tell you the 2 main parties suck. Any person running for President or other federal office and does not hammer on inflation, cost of living, economy, etc. and instead focuses on culture war sh*t is a complete and total dumbass. You think all the guys without a job voting in the 1932 election cared about culture war crap of the time like prohibition?
An opening piece of debate is found on Third Party Watch at https://thirdpartywatch.com/2023/10/04/foundational-debate-toward-a-new-party-part-1/
I agree with your point, Jeff, that I do not off hand have any advocates in mind for the hostile takeover proposals. However, the proposals seem to have a lot of support.
I think as a practical matter the latter two options aren’t really options. The recent MAGA takeover of the GOP wasn’t so much an infiltration as a natural consequence of many years of playing to the base at the cost of compromise and governance. I’ll be interested to see who you find to advocate either of those two options. Just a side note that the last time I tried to comment here, the site would not recognize 20 as a correct answer for 4 times five.