Peter Gemma: Election Prediction Challenge

I want to keep this prediction for 3rd party candidates simple: percentage for the Big Two (Green and Libertarian), and, for other 3rd party and independent candidates, vote totals or specific guesses on states.  Since there are so many in the later category, I thought it best to leave those entries open ended; list as many as you wish.

Challenge ends at 6:00pm EST.

 

Here are mine:

Johnson:  4.25%

Stein: 2.25%

____

McMullin: 19% Utah; 700,000 votes nationwide

Darrell Castle: 195,000

Rocky DeFuente: 170,000

Gloria LaRiva: 125,000

Mike Maturen: 80,000

Dan Vacek: 40,000

____

Scoring:

  1. closest on Stein/Johnson

2.  closest on any two presidential candidates other than Johnson/Stein

Prizes …. ?

29 thoughts on “Peter Gemma: Election Prediction Challenge

  1. NewFederalist

    Peter- Thank you for all the wonderful interviews you did with many alternative nominees. I really appreciate all you do to bring more information to us all.

  2. Anthony Dlugos

    I’m thinking you’re a little high for Johnson and Stein.

    But I’m guessing the spread between the two will be larger than the 2% you suggest.

  3. Tony From Long Island

    Johnson 5.00001%
    Stein 2.25%
    McMuffin 232,000 in UItah – 500,000 nationwide

    Castle – 145,000
    Rocky Balboa 110,000

  4. Dylan Robnett

    Johnson: 4.15%

    Stein: 1.6%

    ____

    McMullin: 20% Utah; 885,000 votes nationwide

    Darrell Castle: 189,000

    Overall, not a bad year for third parties. Could we be on an upward trajectory for the next election?

  5. Matt Cholko

    Johnson 3.2% nationwide
    Stein 0.9% nationwide

    McMullin 21% in Utah
    Johnson 18% in NM

    As to prizes, I’ll buy a beer at the next LP national convention for the person that IPR readers think makes the most accurate prediction in this thread.

  6. Tony From Long Island

    Why is there still a prohibition party? Mr. Hedges looks like he could be the Prohibition Party candidate from 1876 with his snazzy beard 🙂

    I find it ironic how their platform decries same-sex marriage as “an abomination to god” but follows it with a religious liberty plank. Might as well just merge with the Constitution Party. Both are more than just a tad bit theocratic.

    However, if the small vote total increases the overall percentage for “third parties,” that is a good thing.

  7. Austin Cassidy

    Gary Johnson – 2.85%
    Jill Stein – 0.95%

    McMullin – 391,000 votes
    Castle – 178,000 votes
    La Riva – 69,000 votes

    Best states…
    >> McMullin – Utah (20%)
    >> Johnson – Alaska (12%)
    >> Stein – Vermont (7%)

    My complete order of finish by national popular vote…

    1st Clinton, 2nd Trump, 3rd Johnson, 4th Stein, 5th McMullin, 6th Castle, 7th La Riva, 8th De La Fuente, 9th Kennedy, 10th Hedges, 11th Moorehead, 12th Soltysik, 13th Duncan, 14th Vacek, 15th Kahn, 16th Skewes, 17th Smith, 18th Keniston, 19th Kotlikoff, 20th Jacob-Fambro, 21st Copeland, 22nd White, 23rd Giordani, 24th Hoefling, 25th. Maldonado, 26th Scott, 27th Maturen, 28th Atwood, 29th Lyttle, 30th Silva, 31st Kopitke

    If Trump wins, he wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote.

  8. Darcy G Richardson

    Rocky De La Fuente, who is devoting some last-minute resources there, will outpoll Gary Johnson in Nevada.

  9. Tony From Long Island

    Darcy: ” . . . .Rocky De La Fuente, who is devoting some last-minute resources there, will outpoll Gary Johnson in Nevada. . . . ”

    I thought this was supposed to be a serious thread. Maybe I’m wrong because you can’t be serious.

  10. Darcy G Richardson

    Well, we’ll find out later tonight, but Rocky is spending some serious money in Nevada, a state where Bernie’s folks are still seething from the Democratic party’s underhanded tactics and manipulation of the caucuses earlier this year and don’t have the option of casting a write-in vote nor an opportunity to vote for the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Rocky has been aggressively reaching out to them in the closing days of the campaign and there are some indications that his efforts are beginning to pay dividends.

    Many of Bernie’s left-leaning supporters in Nevada, of course, will find a candidate such as De La Fuente a much more appealing option than casting a protest vote for an austerity monger and fiscal extremist like Gary Johnson.

    We’ll see what happens…

  11. Trent Hill

    Gary Johnson – 4.5%
    Jill Stein – 1.5%

    McMullin – 270,000 votes in Utah. 400,000 nationwide.
    Castle – 110,000 votes
    La Riva – 52,000 votes

    Best states…
    >> McMullin – Utah (26%)
    >> Johnson – New Mexico (11%) & Alaska (10%)
    >> Stein – Vermont (8%)

    Most interesting down-ballot third party races:
    Alaska. Where a Republican who previously won her race as a write-in candidate is facing a Democrat who previously ran the Republican Moderate Party and was a State Senator in that third party. Also running strong are Libertarian Joe Miller who flirted with the Constitution Party in 2016 and Margaret Stock, an Independent with Democratic leanings. Weirdest of all, the party’s strongest third party, the Alaskan Independence Party, is sitting this one out. Strange.

  12. Trent Hill

    Darcy, don’t forget our bet.

    If Stein gets more votes than Johnson, I buy a set of The Others.
    If Johnson gets more votes than Stein, you buy me a set of The Others.

  13. Tony From Long Island

    You do have a point about Stein not being on the ballot in Nevada, but he still won’t approach Johnson

  14. Darcy G Richardson

    “Darcy, don’t forget our bet.

    If Stein gets more votes than Johnson, I buy a set of The Others.
    If Johnson gets more votes than Stein, you buy me a set of The Others.” — Trent Hill

    I haven’t forgotten. If I lose, I’ll also throw in the fifth volume of Others, which covers the period from the Great Depression to the end of WWII.

  15. George Phillies

    ” Stein not being on the ballot in Nevada, but he still won’t approach Johnson”

    Ummh, Stein is of the female persuasion.

    MSNBC has put up a vote count for Johnson in one state. he was at 2%. If you add vote percentages for the two parties of the past, the remainder is running 2-5% in places thusfar reported.

    Having invested large amounts of money adn time in this, i shall return to watching the event.

  16. paulie

    ” Stein not being on the ballot in Nevada, but he still won’t approach Johnson”

    Ummh, Stein is of the female persuasion.

    From context, the “he” being referred to is Rocky.

  17. Jonathan Makeley

    Well my prediction has already been fulfilled. Thank You Arkansas! Now I’m hoping that we might get 3,000 for Hedges.

  18. paulie

    Well, Gary Johnson is likely to exceed 3m and could hit 4m. Incredible result.

    Compared with past results, yes. Compared to what he could have done with a better run campaign, better candidate prep and the opponents he had this year, not so much.

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