Rand Paul’s IA chief: “more ripe for a third-party candidacy than at any point in history”, but most Republicans laugh at Bloomberg trial balloon

See this article from Politico, about Republicans “laughing” at the idea of Bloomberg independent bid they think would pull votes almost exclusively from the Democratic nominee.

But even if Bloomberg’s “dream scenario” of Cruz as the Republican nominee and Sanders as the Democrat came to pass, Oman remarked, there are many weeks to go before the two major parties decide. “It’s way early. No one’s cast a ballot. We’ll see in a week in Iowa.”

Steven Grub, who runs Paul’s Iowa operation, was a little more charitable to Bloomberg.

“We are maybe more ripe for a third-party candidacy than at any point in history, so as the party effort moves to the extremes, I think we risk someone like Bloomberg sneaking through the middle,” Grub said.

Still, several veteran Republican and Democratic Iowa political operatives were skeptical that Bloomberg would be able to make inroads with voters in the state, especially after all the retail politicking candidates have been doing here for months.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/michael-bloomberg-presidential-trial-balloon-gop-reaction-218150#ixzz3yCCR6KUn

9 thoughts on “Rand Paul’s IA chief: “more ripe for a third-party candidacy than at any point in history”, but most Republicans laugh at Bloomberg trial balloon

  1. George Phillies

    “political operatives were skeptical that Bloomberg would be able to make inroads with voters in the state”

    On one hand, these are the guiding geniuses who claimed that Trump would explode by October. 2015.

    Also, being realistic, large parts of Kansas are among the more socially conservative parts of the United States, places where Bloomberg would do poorly. Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, and Indiana are more likely, without going too far.

  2. NewFederalist

    Prof. Phillies- you seem somewhat positive about Mayor Bloomberg. What do you find attractive about him?

  3. George Phillies

    How are you reading that as being positive about Bloomberg?

    I am saying that the Iowa operatives have a bad track record of predicting the future. I am saying that Bloomberg will sell poorly to social reactionaries.

    From my point of view, in this state he will lose to Clinton or Sanders, but he will totally wreck up the local Republican party, which is a positive outcome from my point of view.

  4. Dave

    I don’t see how Bloomberg really hurts the GOP. If we assume that most of the people voting for him are center right and would normally vote Republican but are turned off by Trump, Bloomberg getting them out probably means they’d vote him and vote GOP the rest of the ballot. IMO it would be more damaging to the Republicans if there’s no real alternative to Trump, since many voters won’t bother to vote if none of the candidates for president appeals to them.

  5. Robert Capozzi

    “Still, several veteran Republican and Democratic Iowa political operatives were skeptical that Bloomberg would be able to make inroads with voters in the state, especially after all the retail politicking candidates have been doing here for months.”

    Sounds like the conclusion of Kool Aid drinkers who over-estimate their own worth. If the Rs and Ds both nominate extremists, it is conceivable that a centrist/non-extremist who is well-funded and with resume could make a serious dent, and even possibly win.

    Although Bloomberg has taken some positions that I find troubling — Nanny State restrictions on what and how much soda and a confused position on gun control — overall he is positioned as a moderate. Webb is, too, but he doesn’t have Bloomberg’s deep pockets.

    GJ is moderate in many ways compared with Trump and Sanders, but he also lacks the deep pockets and his messaging isn’t nearly crisp enough to capture attention. He’s still in the weeds on this whole Sharia thing, which he should drop yesterday.

  6. Shane

    Bloomberg is to the left of Hillary. I don’t see how anyone that follows national politics would think he appeals to the center right.

    He won’t run regardless. He’s trying to push Hillary on taking a stronger stance on guns. There are ballot initiatives in a few states this year that Bloomberg paid for. He wants to make Gun Control the wedge issue in 2016.

  7. Robert Capozzi

    sc: Bloomberg is to the left of Hillary.

    me: Maybe. Not sure if that’s the case on economics. But he’s to the right of Sanders.

    HC is using the gun issue against Sanders, so I’m not sure that’s MB’s motive for this trial balloon.

    There’s not only the matter of a pol’s ideological foundation, but also it’s a question of stylistic amplitude. Trump and Sanders are erratic, volatile, risky figures.

    Still, I suspect the odds are Trump (or Cruz) v Sanders is still a longshot. So, I agree, unlikely MB will make a run.

  8. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    Bloomberg is hardcore anti-gun. I heard on KFI-AM that Bloomberg has funded anti-gun initiatives in several states — and even in Mexico. That’s a seriously true believer.

    Bloomberg is also a hardcore nanny-stater. As NYC mayor, tried to change how New Yorkers eat, from nutritional disclosure requirements on menus, to bans on large soda cups. His bans were overturned by the courts, but he kept appealing and trying to find ways around it.

    Bloomberg is obsessed with guns and large soda cups.

    America doesn’t know much about Bloomberg now. But if he runs, he has plenty of history that would be a big turnoff to conservatives, and even to many centrists.

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