On October 12, Y2 Analytics released this presidential poll for Utah, showing that no presidential candidate has more than 26%. The results: Hillary Clinton 26%, Donald Trump 26%, Evan McMullin 22%, Gary Johnson 14%, Jill Stein 1%, other 3%, undecided 7%. Probably the bulk of the “other” vote is for Darrell Castle, because the Constitution Party is strong in Utah.
Also, the namesake website your name links to appears to be down.
That only works for IPR editors. No one else is able to post images in the comments here.
Tony From Long Island @ October 13, 2016 at 13:43
Wrote: “Hey, JB, how do you embed the graphic in your post?”
First I upload the images to the media library at IPR. Then I get their URLs within the library. Then I go to EDIT comment, put the cursor where I want the image, then click on the IMG button, and insert the URL there. Hit RETURN and VIOLA!
or you can use the following line of code, for example, but insert your own URL for your photo
img src=”http://www.curvyguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Cute-Cat.jpg” /
but add a lesser than sign < at the beginning (far left) and a greater than sign > at the end.
It looks like this:
“It’s been rumored for several weeks that Khalil Byrd’s Stand Up America super PAC will begin spending heavily on McMullin’s behalf in Utah. This could be interesting.”
Indeed!
BR: a bold program for change that was edgy but acceptable to a large segment of the public; issue awaremess, knowledge and gravitas
ME: Key, yes.
A new Monmouth poll, released earlier today, shows Trump leading Clinton in Utah by 6 percentage points. Trump is garnering 34 percent to Hillary’s 28 percent. That same survey, conducted between Monday and yesterday, shows McMullin holding steady with 20 percent of the vote and Johnson slipping to single digits at 9 percent.
It’s been rumored for several weeks that Khalil Byrd’s Stand Up America super PAC will begin spending heavily on McMullin’s behalf in Utah. This could be interesting.
“We also need a candidate who ISN”T running: to promote book sales; to pay himself a salary; to build a mailing list for marketing a newletter and gold coins; to score with babes, etc.”
Actually all those would be fine motivations for a LP candidate like Browne or Kokesh, who is grounded in libertarian ideology and capable of explaining it in ways that connect well with audiences and is not too broke to travel to state conventions, and who begins campaigning well ahead of the nomination, not in the last couple of months before the national convention. That would fit in perfectly well with a long view pragmatic libertarian strategy as outlined at https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/10/clayton-hunt-gary-johnson-supporters-the-pragmatists-that-werent/ and without the fools gold, pyrrhic victories of getting non-libertarians to run under the Libertarian label with the hopes of winning an empty Libertarian In Name Only victory.
Be Rational,
Re: 15:23 post.
Not to mention the duopoly party elected officials who would obviously be witnessing this “excitement, good will and popularity,” realize there’s gonna be no going back to the dark ages of the Demopublican cartel, and switch parties while in office. Furthermore, these people would become our most important assets; the leaders of the libertarian moment who have the institutional knowledge we Libertarians do not have.
Sure, many current Libertarians may be caught up in this process and elected, but the folks who are gonna take Humpty Dumpty apart are the ones who have been holding it together.
“he was sitting at home with little to do, he was truly offended by Trump, and along comes a call from Gary Johnson.”
Au contraire. According to Johnson it was Weld who surprised him by seeking him out.
I’m out too. Till tomorrow.
“Oh yeah, Harry Browne was a chick magnet!
My day is over! See you all tomrorrow” – Tony
Don’t assume that list was about Harry Browne. Each item reflects one of the personal motivations of a different LP POTUS candidate.
“In your list of problems, you forgot to mention the LPNH having no problem with one of it’s members openly soliciting write-in votes against the LP POTUS nominee”
LOL really? You are obsessing about a write-in candidate who is on the ballot in ZERO states and will be lucky to get a few hundred votes nationwide? If that’s a “problem” for Johnson and/or the welded “big tent” LP y’all better send the clowns home right now and pack that tent up before you hurt yourselves. If you are going to worry about something up in NH worry about the LP VP candidate donating to the Republican Gov candidate who is running against a Libertarian.
Oh yeah, Harry Browne was a chick magnet!
My day is over! See you all tomrorrow
“Rational, it takes just a bit more than charisma and articulation. Harry Browne was both of those things.” – Tony.
True. I was assuming as obvious that the winning LP candidate would likely need other qualifications, such as: major governmental experience, such as two terms as a successful governor; proper dress and grooming; a bold program for change that was edgy but acceptable to a large segment of the public; issue awaremess, knowledge and gravitas … etc.
We also need a candidate who ISN”T running: to promote book sales; to pay himself a salary; to build a mainling list for marketing a newletter and gold coins; to score with babes, etc.
BR, you give IPR and me way too much credit.
Posters are really overplaying the importance of Bill Weld in all of this. Bill Weld is old, he has lost his youthful charm (look at photos from his time in office), he was sitting at home with little to do, he was truly offended by Trump, and along comes a call from Gary Johnson. Here was a chance to get up and do something, get back in the public eye, take a shot at the conservative Rs who offended him and, at the outset, he would actually have a shot at becoming Vice President of the US. That’s why Weld is in this. He has no part in any cabal and isn’t that well connected any more.
Sadly, a very bad campaign advertising plan and failure to properly manage and prepare the candidates eneded the small window of opportunity there was a victory.
Of course, new major revelations about Clinton and/or Trump could change everything even at this late date.
Rational, it takes just a bit more than charisma and articulation. Harry Browne was both of those things.
In your list of problems, you forgot to mention the LPNH having no problem with one of it’s members openly soliciting write-in votes against the LP POTUS nominee/
“Americans Elect and McMullin are insurance policies.”
So is a “welded” LP.
Any LP candidate who was charismatic and articulate enough with a campaign manager who was competent enough so that they could actually win 270 Electoral Votes would be swept into the White House with a great deal of excitement, good will and popularity.
The next big election would find the LP deluged with candidates for every office and plenty of financial backing, with no seats to lose and every seat picked up a net gain. The party would take seats away from weak Rs and some weak Ds in the House and Senate and in lower level races in every state.
Should the sitting LP POTUS maintain their popularity, they would be re-elected as most sitting Presidents have a great advantage, with coattails sweeping in more Libertarians. Subsequent elections would continue the trend and the Rs would be decimated and disappear.
This is the danger the establishment Rs fear. Americans Elect and McMullin are insurance policies.
Of course, with internal LP problems such as:
the continued trouble with a well financed pretend LP in Oregon,
continued bickering by posters on IPR, from nitpicking by RC to ranting by Andy,
the lack of qualified, experienced LP candidates for higher office,
the LP has a low probability of successfully achieving its potential.
Scared? I’m a democrat who is voting for Johnson. I am thrilled that LP is having what I feel is tremendous success this year. It’s good for the party (no matter what Andy thinks). It’s good for democracy.
I don’t think anyone on here is “scared” of McGyver.
rj,
Are you mistaking me for a Johnson supporter?
Why are people so scared of a guy only on the ballot in 11 states, when your guy is on FIFTY-ONE!?
Are Libertarians upset that Lynn Kahn will take votes away from Gary Johnson? How about Chris Keniston? Or Alyson Kennedy?
No, the reason they’re upset is because this guy in one state is actually being successful.
There is irony in Libertarians online upset someone gained ballot access.
“How were you going to destroy and forever displace a party in this one election that after it is over will still likely have a majority of the House, most of the state governors, control of most state legislatures, and control of city and county councils, even on their worst possible outcome?”
Granted it may take a few elections rather than just one, but for a plausible model see the collapse and replacement of the Whig Party in the 1850s, or for a more modern example see what has happened to the Democrats among white voters in the South which was solidly Democratic in the 1960s and almost as solidly Republican by the 1980s.
That’s a good post at 14:49, Be Rational.
“Johnson and the LP pose a long-term existential threat to the Republican establishment. They know it. They will take many forms of action to stop the LP. Americans Elect and the McMulling campaign are just two of the obvious ones.”
Mostly correct but I would not include Johnson in that, especially with Weld on the ticket. Aside from running with an LP label and LP ballot access, they may as well BE Americans Elect, due to the wishy washiness of their stances. The establishment isn’t all that threatened by legal pot (while continuing the rest of the war on drugs), gay marriage and “fair” taxation. Indeed, Johnson made a semi-plausible play to become the Americans Elect nominee in 2012, and with Weld on the ticket he could probably have managed to close the deal.
Rj, the reason they control those state legislatures is because of gerrymandering. Those who vote republican tend to vote every single year. 2020 is a presidential year (and a census year). Could change a bit.
Gerrymandiering is one of the absolute worst things about Ammurcan politics. Damn you Elbridge Gerry!!!!
If I am remembering correctly, the Dems have gotten substantially more raw votes for house yet still have a substantial minority (which will shrink a bit this year).
A Republican hasn’t won nationally by more than a very small margin since 1988. That won’t change any time soon.
“So are there some delusional Libertarian Party supporters out there that think if McMullin was not in the race, Gary Johnson would’ve had 36% in this poll?”
He didn’t need 36%. With Clinton and Trump at 26% each he only needed to be ahead of, or even within striking distance, so the “wasted vote” argument goes out the window. A lot of McMullin voters are “Never Trump, Never Clinton” so without McMullin they would have gravitated to the next most plausible choice besides those two, which would have been Johnson for most of them. Of course some of them would have stayed home, reluctantly voted for Clinton or Trump, voted for Castle, wrote in, etc. But Johnson would have most likely benefited the most without McMullin in this scenario.
“Please show me the law where all voters that hate Trump and will not vote for a Democrat are required to vote for the Libertarian nominee.”
There’s no such law and not all of them would. But if say half of them did, that would put Johnson neck and neck with Clinton and Trump according to these numbers. Now, not so much.
“In a year of bad choices – (like this year) – with a really good candidate or ticket – (Johnson didn’t turn out to be quite articulate or charismatic enough) – the Republican party could be defeated, destroyed and forever displaced, just as they ascended in 1860, by a third party.”
How were you going to destroy and forever displace a party in this one election that after it is over will still likely have a majority of the House, most of the state governors, control of most state legislatures, and control of city and county councils, even on their worst possible outcome?
Oops, above should read:
McMullin makes it more likely that Clinton will win, not Trump.
rj, I don’t think that TK was implying that without McMullen, Anti-Trump voters would vote Johnson. Some would, some would vote for Hillary.
That’s what’s happening now. It will split 3 ways with a majority of the anti-Trump voters going with McMuffin
McMullin does not appeal to and will not be taking any measurable percentage of votes from Clinton. The barrier to the LP becoming a major party is the Republican party. The LP has to replace the Rs.
The Republican establishment is not stupid. They know the LP needs to replace the Rs and that the Tea Party movement, the Pauls, Cato, the Kochs and other groups have promoted outsiders into the Republican club and created a dangerous level of volatility in the electoral process.
In a year of bad choices – (like this year) – with a really good candidate or ticket – (Johnson didn’t turn out to be quite articulate or charismatic enough) – the Republican party could be defeated, destroyed and forever displaced, just as they ascended in 1860, by a third party.
Americans Elect was a backup plan that was dropped when not needed.
This year they had to scramble, didn’t have the ballot status lined up, so they settled with McMuffin to fill the role. They didn’t need a big effort to stop Johnson, just enough to undermine the few states in the West where a badly managed campaign with a weak candidate could still show strength and endanger the Republicans.
McMullin makes it more likely that Clinton will win, not Johnson. McMullin will not take any votes from Clinton. He will take votes from Trump, thus helping Clinton win. As long as McMullin takes votes from Trump, Clinton benefits.
Trump voters that would have gone to Johnson, discrediting the Rs, possibly helping build an LP that can replace the Rs will be lost to McMullin. Trump voters that might have stayed home, also discrediting the Rs will go to McMullin, but since McMullin is just an altenate Republican, votes going to McMullin benefit the establishment Republicans.
Very few Trump voters voting for McMullin would have voted for Clinton. Those few will have no effect on Clinton going well past 270 Electoral Votes. This is going to be a blow-out year for Clinton.
Johnson and the LP pose a long-term existential threat to the Republican establishment. They know it. They will take many forms of action to stop the LP. Americans Elect and the McMulling campaign are just two of the obvious ones.
So are there some delusional Libertarian Party supporters out there that think if McMullin was not in the race, Gary Johnson would’ve had 36% in this poll?
“The purpose of McMullin’s run is to aid Trump in winning, especially in Utah, without anti-Trump Republicans having to eat crow and publicly support Trump. He’s there to split the anti-Trump vote, full stop.”
Please show me the law where all voters that hate Trump and will not vote for a Democrat are required to vote for the Libertarian nominee.
One could very easily make the same argument that “The purpose of Johnson’s run is to aid Clinton in winning, without anti-Clinton voters having to publicly support Trump. He’s there to split the anti-Clinton vote, full stop.” There’s as much evidence supporting this as is your post.
TK – the people who helped get McMullen to run despise Trump. His presence will not aid Trump in winning anything. Trump is going to lose (in his words) “BIGLY.” It’s possible that the scenario you propose could play out that way in Utah, but I highly doubt that it was the intention of the NeverTrumpers
I should hasten to add though that the presence of William Weld on the Libertarian ticket and the disproportionate role he is given in the campaign indicates that they have also opened up another backup plan within the Libertarian Party, just in case it becomes too popular, to mute its criticism of the Warfare/Welfare/Wall Street axis.
I think Be Rational has a point. As with Americans Elect, there is a certain element of the establishment/elite that wants nothing to do with the Trumpian authoritarian-populist elements of the Republican Party (or their precussors in recent elections) nor with the rainbow coalition and labor union elements that hold sway with the Democrats. However, they do want to preserve the military-industrial complex, the national security/domestic espionage complex, and the state-intertwined financial system represented in such respects as the bailouts and the federal reserve, so they aren’t interested in allowing the Libertarians, Greens or Constitutionists to become any bigger as more and more people become frustrated with the Democrats and Republicans alike. They want to make sure that any push for a “real” third party preserves the power of the military and financial establishments, and McMullin is the D-Lister they belatedly persuaded to run, after repeated failures to get bigger names earlier this year and a complete failure to find a candidate at all after spending tens of millions on ballot access in 2012.
The purpose of McMullin’s run is to aid Trump in winning, especially in Utah, without anti-Trump Republicans having to eat crow and publicly support Trump. He’s there to split the anti-Trump vote, full stop.
BR, again, EMc was the last Never Trump candidate choice who said Yes.
If there’s evidence of EMc being targeted to block the LP, where is your evidence?
Rational, that makes no sense to me. The McMullen people are NEVER TRUMP People. To me, they should have just left it alone. Adding McMullen waters down more votes and INCREASES Trump’s chances (which are now, thankfully almost zero).
They didn’t care at all about Johnson or the LP. They just wanted a conservative alternative to Trump.
“Used to blunt possible Johnson victories?” Used by whom? Kristol?
Hey, JB, how do you embed the graphic in your post?
The graphics in my earlier post are for their “polls only” forecast. The NOWCAST (meaning where the race appears to be today) looks like this:
“Clearly McMullin was used to blunt possible Johnson victories in certain states.”
Agreed.
In past years, Americans Elect was the designated group set up to stop the LP in case the Republicans were taken over by a rump group.
This year the financers of Americans Elect dropped out, perhaps they knew they would look foolish after their previous aborted effort. So, McMuffin was drafted out of desperation at the last minute to fulfill the same purpose – stop the LP.
The website http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/ has just started projecting McMullin’s odds of winning Utah’s six electoral college votes, and has those odds about 5 times higher than Gary Johnson’s (3.3 percent verses 0.7 percent).
I guess you technically get paid by the government when in the world police, so OK.
McMuffin has worked at the CIA and with congress. Not that I am defending either. I could care less about either politically.
Darrell Castle is a former Marine, and i am pretty sure that he is a Vietnam veteran, so he has worked in government as well.
Po-TAY-to Po-TAH-to (or potatoe for all you Dan Quayle fans)
McMuffin has actual government experience (yes, I know it’s scant, but it is real)
As much as Glen Beck is to be admired for backing Castle, Castle was never a serious candidate with the #NeverTrump people.
I am not defending McMoolah or backing him, just giving my opinion as to why he is an actual candidate
Darrell Castle is a social conservative, and he’s on in more states than McMullin. Did you mean neocon?
I have to disagree with my friend Anthony here. I don’t think anyone associated with Evan McMuffin cared a bit about Gary Johnson. They simply wanted a candidate who was a social conservative to vote for. They got one.
He will hand Utah to Hillary Clinton.
Though I am not a huge fan of Secretary Clinton, the bigger the landslide, the better for the country to push aside the disgusting rhetoric of Generalissimo Trump and the “alt-right” delusion.
I’m voting for Gov. Johnson, but I hope Mrs. Clinton wins Utah, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina.
Mr. C,
Not off the top of my head. New Mexico is one of only 11 states where McMullin is on the ballot, and one of a small number of Western states, along with Colorado, Utah and Idaho where they are both on the ballot and both polling relatively strong (including compared with Johnson in most other states). With Johnson at 24% in at least one recent NM poll, it’s certainly plausible that McMullin’s support – especially now that he is getting more coverage due to Trump’s latest scandals, more media, and the Utah poll – could make the difference between Johnson being competitive in NM and not. It also makes logical sense that McMullin would legitimately want to deny Johnson any electoral college votes, thus keeping Johnson from potentially coming in third in electoral votes as opposed to McMullin, especially in the scenario outlined above.
mr. b, do you have a source for EMc targeting NM? My understanding is that there are more favorable states for him, assuming he’s REALLY targeting the LDS vote.
McMullin is focused on the same states as Johnson, most especially New Mexico and Utah. It’s at least possible that if the bulk of the McMullin support was going to Johnson in those states right now that Johnson could be in the lead or in strong contention to take those electoral votes. As it stands, he is not.
It’s very unlikely, but not impossible, that if either McMullin or Johnson takes even a single state that it could deny both Clinton and Trump 270 electoral votes, especially if they also get help from faithless electors in other states. In that scenario the election would go to the House to choose among the top three electoral votegetters with each state getting one vote, a scenario that would normally favor the Republicans due to their relative strength in smaller population states. But, much of the House Republican majority is at “war” with Trump and could – again, not likely, but not impossible – decide to back a McMullin or Johnson, especially if they become deadlocked between Trump and Clinton. Or, if both Clinton and Trump become hopelessly embroiled in snowballing scandals between now and then, it’s possible that both Democratic AND Republican defectors could combine to put whoever that third place electoral votegetter is in as a compromise candidate.
Thus, McMullin and Johnson are in fact in direct competition to be that third place electoral votegetter. The most likely scenario is that they will deny each other any electoral votes, and/or will both collapse by election day, and/or that Clinton or Trump will get over 270 electoral votes. Barring that, it’s most likely that the House will settle either on Trump as the choice of most of the states, or on whoever wins a plurality of the popular vote. But, this is a very strange year and it may yet have a very strange finish.
I hope we get some more polling out of Utah and fast. I’m sure McMullin is focusing 99% of his efforts on the state from now to the election. If these numbers are even somewhat legit, a Mitt Romney endorsement could put him over the top.
“Clearly McMullin was used to blunt possible Johnson victories in certain states.”
Dlugos putting on his tin foil hat…Used by whom?
L, actually, EMc was one of a series of NeverTrump trial balloons. Romney was the first, iirc. The Never Trumpsters may well want HRC to win, agreed.
Clearly McMullin was used to blunt possible Johnson victories in certain states.
I disagree. The people responsible for getting his campaign off the ground are hardcore neocons who consider Hillary to be the lesser evil, compared to Trump. They were initially hoping that Johnson/Weld would take enough votes from Trump to ensure a Hillary victory. But when they realized that “TeamGov” was actually taking more votes from Hillary, and therefore helping Trump’s chances, they needed a Plan B. So, enter Egg McMuffin.
His presence is disappointing. I think without him in the race, Johnson would have won Utah. All these Republicans abandoning Trump would have to go somewhere, and a former GOP Governor seems easier for them to swallow than Clinton.
I hate the wasted vote argument, and McMullin’s campaign is sort of fascinating just for the historical nature of it, but he’s pretty much just an anti Trump neocon Republican waging a third party campaign due to exceptional circumstances. If he does particularly well he’ll probably try to run in 2020 in the GOP.
Clearly McMullin was used to blunt possible Johnson victories in certain states.
Though to be fair, McMullin is a pretty standard Republican, and any success he gets here will likely only be used to help him have a future career in Republican politics later on. Certainly he seems to have no plan to create a new party or anything.
Still, exciting times when a third party has a chance at winning a state. I don’t think Johnson can win here, but it would be nice if he could come within 10%.
Utah could flip to a non Republican/Democrat! Awesome! Go Mcmullin!
I think he is being sarcastic, and/or drunk.
Wow, is Anthony now turning on Gary Johnson?
Gary Johnson is the worst candidate ever.