The Washington Post-ABC News general election poll just came out and there were two scenarios under which Ron Paul was polled as a third party candidate. The first, a general election match-up between Paul, Gingrich, and Obama has Paul at 21%. The second, including a general election match-up between Paul, Romney, and Obama, also has Paul at 21%.
Another poll that was published today by Public Policy Polling included a match-up between Paul, Romney, and Obama, in which Paul scored 17% as a third party candidate.
In the PPP poll, Jon Huntsman and Donald Trump were also polled as third party challengers to the Romney-Obama major party nominees and scored 11% and 19% respectively.
Another interesting thing. I read about this at Daily Kos (not that I read it anymore, it’s soul crushingly Democratic), and they conceded in their repulsive, Democrat-coddling way,
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/20/1047397/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap:-Obama-is-crushing-the-GOP-Or-hes-tied-Or-hes-behind
Trent, I think you left out some of the candidates that they polled. Rocky Anderson (who they call an independent even though he’s with the Justice Party) got 4% of the vote running against Obama and Romney, Michael Bloomberg as an independent got 8%, and Bernie Sanders gets 7%,.
PPP has a good record when it comes to polling accurately. It’s interesting that Sanders polls at 7% and a large number of people do know who he is. I’d say that’s a good guess for left/progressive candidacy and probably around what Nader was polling in 1999.
If this election winds up being a 5 way race, then the polls will have to open up a bit, one would hope.
They are all polling way higher than reality. I wouldn’t know that Rocky Anderson exists if I didn’t read this site. I’m sure most people don’t. It was a matter of just wanting to pick the 3rd guy, but when it comes time to vote few will.
As far as Ron Paul’s intentions when he loses- who knows? It’s very likely that Obama will win regardless of the other nominees. GOP candidates could be competing to be the 2012 version of 1996 Bob Dole. Other Repubs would rather be the 2016 version of 2000 George Bush- perhaps Rand Paul could be one of them? He’s a better politician than his father, probably more cordial with and liked by party hacks. I bring this up because some Paul supporters see Paul as warming things up for Rand to take over. Would Ron Paul even care if he hurt or helped his sons’s political future? I don’t know if he takes any of that into consideration.
Looks like they should have gone 4-way at least..
Politico: Gary Johnson to announce he’s a Libertarian Candidate December 28.
The PPP survey asked about Rocky Anderson and Bernie Sanders, but not Jill Stein. The results are. It would be interesting to see what would happen if they asked about more than just three candidates, but I suppose it is better than asking about only two. Shaping up to be an interesting election.
Q15 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Rocky Anderson,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………. 44%
Mitt Romney………. 43%
Rocky Anderson………. 4%
Undecided………. 8%
Q18 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Bernie Sanders,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………. 42%
Mitt Romney………. 42%
Bernie Sanders ………. 7%
Undecided………. 9%
In a show of solidarity after the messy RNC convention; the LP could switch out their VP slot for Paul, whether or not he even asks for it. That would get votes.
#8- I was curious about their relationship.
PS- Sorry about typos in first message.
bruuno make excellent point. yes
I was under the impression that Rep. Paul and Gov. Johnson were not very close so I don’t know if Paul would endorse Johnson even if he was angry with the GOP. If he did it could be very detrimental to Sen. Rand Paul’s career and influence in the senate.
Scenario I have bouncing around in my head-
ROn Paul does well in the GOP primaries/caucus’. Now ell enough to get nomination but enough to get a decent chunk of delegates. Seeking to eliminate the Paul delegations effect at the Convention the GOP establishment seeks to unseat many of his delegates and treat them basically like garbage. The fight over this goes all the way up to the convention, leaving Paul and his supporters angry and bitter (with good reason). It being too late to effectively stage a 3rd Party run Paul endorses Johnson giving him a HUGE boost and making him a significant player in November. Somewhere in the John Anderson range in 1980 (polling around 15% though he wound up with only 6.6%). Anyway see this as a possibility?
I see. Interesting number that would undoubtedly come way down before election day, unfortunately.
The PPP poll did include Johnson, but the article here doesn’t reference it. GJ got 9% when matched against Obama and Romney.
Split the diff and say 19% of the general election votes equal a lot of votes hey?!? With numbers like that the MSM must destroy dear old Dr.Paul. Watch the onslaught to begin very soon.
As for GJ and BR not used is because they are NON factors. If you have no money nor show the possibility to rai$e it, you my friends are NO threat to the kleptocracy!
The LP needs to take advantage of the power of the R(3Vo_|)ution and DRAFT RON PAUL. Opportunities like this seldom if ever occur for 40 year old alternative political parties…
They actually polled a whole bunch of third party candidates, though they skipped including any Geens, identified Paul as an independent, and did not poll any real Libertarain candidates.
@1 I think it would require that they have any idea what is going on with third party groups.
It seems odd to me that they didn’t poll Gary Johnson or Buddy Roemer–the only two “high profile” individuals to have actively considered such a run.