John Avlon is a prominent advocate of moderation in the political process. His take on Americans Elect’s deadline struggles can be found at The Daily Beast.
The deadline for Americans Elect is here and they still don’t have a candidate. This failure threatens to kill the effort to field a bipartisan third ticket for president before it ever really began—despite $35 million spent and 420,000 people signed up to serve as online delegates.
But supporters and advisers are planning to soldier on, extending the deadline and talking to delegates about possibly opening the process further to encourage greater participation.
Red, I am getting the feeling that Say Amen is not reading responses, in which case we won’t get his or her answer. Which is too bad.
Trent and Gene are paradoxically both correct. It depends on which Buddy Roemer shows up, as some people might say.
Any of the three could break out. If say R Barr is on the G VP and spends a lot of money she could give the ticket traction. Or if Romney flips ways centrist and a chunk of the Tea Party goes to Goode. In that case a few states of ballot access – none of which is in the bag yet so let’s not count chickens before they hatch – would be a relatively minor factor in the equation.
Absent a breakout, and assuming ballot access shakes out roughly as we can reasonably guess right now, you are correct.
Response to @8 is @9 and 10 here
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/05/daniel-larison-on-americans-elect
Buddy Roemer was the incumbent Governor who came in third, behind David Duke and indicted former Governor Edwin Edwards. Not a stellar candidate.
Red,
Roemer shouldn’t be underestimated. While his run has gone badly thus far, he knows how to tap into moderate/populist sentiment really well. If he becomes the AE nominee, he will be a factor.
Say Amen, since you seem to know something about Roemer, what made him believe he could make a credible run for President?
“Dead on. Plus, Johnson’s advantage in NM is at least as good as Goode’s in VA.”
Gary Johnson’s name in New Mexico is probably bigger than Virgil Goode’s name in Virginia.
“Who could possibly do better? Goode will miss enough states to trail Johnson even if they poll about the same percentage. The Greens? I think they will miss too many states as well.”
Dead on. Plus, Johnson’s advantage in NM is at least as good as Goode’s in VA.
bruuno @2 too true…
Americans Elect is a defective concept. They expected to attract a stellar politician to win millions of disaffected voters. Instead, they attracted political failures & unknowns who obtained a mere few thousand votes. Of course!
Stellar politicians today are either Republican or Democrat. A stellar politician would know that it is politically impossible to win the presidency as a third party candidate. The most a third party candidate could do would be to act as a spoiler, splitting the vote of his own party, Republican or Democrat, so the other party’s candidate would win. No stellar politician would want to be the cause of that “treachery” to his party compatriots.
If, by some miracle the AE candidate won, how could he/she ever accomplish anything as president? He would have no AE members in Congress to work with. Every member of Congress would be in the opposition party, with his former party members hating him the most. There would be increased gridlock as all of Congress would want the AE president to fail, proving the AE idea does not work.
AE should start at winning seats in state offices and in Congress, before aiming at the presidency. No athlete runs his first race at the Olympics. Why did the AE donors think they could start first at the highest political office?
The only reason Buddy Roemer is seeking the nomination is that he has had a failed political career and no party wants him.
He was one of the worst governors in Louisiana history. He could not get along with people, put together a competent staff, or pass legislation. He did not work hard and had no ability to govern. Read this history of LA governors, pages 259-268:
http://books.google.com/books?id=Y-0-kmu4vk0C&pg=PA259&lpg=PA259&dq=%22Often+wrong,%22+Roemer&source=bl&ots=GXt38E_jVv&sig=poXJMn9QbCUESjDIP2-foOb3YLY&hl=en&sa=X&ei=n-xjT7CXDOORiQL8n_SiDw&ved=0CGMQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q=%22Often%20wrong%2C%20but%20never%20in%20doubt%22%20Roemer&f=false
Even today, he is LA’s most UNfavorite son. A recent PPP poll rated him the most unpopular presidential candidate, with a 2:1 unfavorable rating in his home state! http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/santorum-leads-by-14-in-louisiana.html#more
As a LA commentator quipped, in bayou style:
“Buddy Roemer, who has been out of politics for 19 years, couldn’t win an election as a dogcatcher in Louisiana, much less the Presidency of the United States.”
http://www.337post.com/yoyo/110309-roemer.html
@6… I think that is a given. Who could possibly do better? Goode will miss enough states to trail Johnson even if they poll about the same percentage. The Greens? I think they will miss too many states as well.
If Americans Elect does fizzle out and not even have a candidate on the ballot, then I think that Gary Johnson will come in 3rd place in November.
Austin–probably not. From what I’ve seen, third parties have done best when other third parties gain traction.
I’m not going to lie, but I’m kinda glad it fizzled out. It just gives Johnson a better chance at his third party bid.
re: #2
And it’s doubly embarrassing that their secrecy wasn’t hiding any plan to nominate a pre-selected candidate, while the suspicion the secrecy caused helped make AE irrelevant.
At least they didn’t pretend to be a grassroots movement. They just mistook their B.S. for fertilizer.
Avlon really just buys anything the AE people tell him. The claim that they are so reluctant to change the rules without widespread support is laughable considering how often they have done the exact opposite already. Also,perhaps part of the problem is no platform of any kind, the ultra secrecy regarding sources of money and the overwhelming sense that it is just a plaything for a handful of elites.
How do you make Americans Elect possessive? Elect’s?
Part of their problem is their cumbersome name.