Iran nuclear deal reported imminent; beware false flag, Gulf of Tonkin, breakaway ally scenarios
After 18 months of negotiations, it is now widely reported that a settlement of the international controversy involving the Iranian nuclear program may now be at hand. This arrangement is expected to involve Iranian guarantees not to develop nuclear weapons, a reduction in the number of Iranian centrifuges, and a highly intrusive inspections regime. In exchange, Iran is likely to get an affirmation of its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, and a lifting of the odious economic warfare sanctions imposed in recent years by the United States and others.
The self-imposed deadline for these talks is next Tuesday, March 31. The German and French foreign ministers joined the talks today, and it is expected that their Russian, Chinese, and British counterparts will arrive in Lausanne, Switzerland on Sunday. If the political text of the agreement can be finished by next Tuesday, then the detailed technical version of the accord will be made ready by June.
From the point of view of the Tax Wall Street Party, war avoidance measures are always desirable. War is the surest way to impose austerity, and this is always a powerful reason to reject military solutions wherever possible. It is also vital that Iran maintain its inherent right under the Nonproliferation Treaty to maintain the capacity to enrich uranium. The during these 18 months of negotiations, Iran has in effect acted as a representative for all developing nations, asserting their right to the full fruits of the scientific, technological, and industrial modernization of our time. Every competent leader of a developing country knows what the average US mush head liberal refuses to understand – that any country that has not mastered the full nuclear fuel cycle will be a plaything and whipping boy for other powers. This is what Netanyahu means when he says that Iran must never be allowed the capacity to construct a nuclear weapon. Today, any country with a modern full set economy could in theory building a nuclear weapon in a short time. Germany, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Italy, South Africa, and a number of others could do this. An unconfirmed story which has been making the rounds since the 1970s, suggests that one country keeps a robust nuclear arsenal in underground bunkers. Each nuclear weapon consists of two components, which are kept in adjoining rooms for purposes of plausible deniability. In a crisis, this nominally non-nuclear power could field several hundred nuclear weapons in a few hours. Not having the capacity to build nuclear bombs means being a backward, underdeveloped, weak economy.
Nevertheless, it is probably wise and clever for Iran to refrain from manufacturing nuclear weapons at this time. The Iranian nuclear issue is too hot, even though Israel has 500-plus nuclear bombs, including a ballistic missile submarine. Saudi Arabia has long since bought coverage on its own through the Pakistani nuclear deterrent.
Powerful interests are deeply hostile to this Iranian nuclear deal, including the transnational war party in the United States, the United Kingdom, the NATO states, and Israel. Obama and Kerry seem to be acting on the basis of the old Zbigniew Brzezinski approach to Iran, which is to make that country a US ally in the Middle East as it was in the days of the old Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) under the Shah.
Many of the White House security breaches involving the Secret Service in recent months can be interpreted as warnings from the war party to Obama that he must cease and desist. If any deal is signed next week, we will enter into a period of extraordinary war danger based on the desire of the warmongers to kick over the negotiations table and start shooting. This could come in the form of a threat to Obama, or of a military provocation on the Gulf of Tonkin model.
There is also the Israeli wild card. For many years, policymakers have been aware of the so-called “breakaway ally scenario” in which Israel would strike out on its own and start a war with the presumption that the United States would be forced to provide assistance. Netanyahu has shown that he is indeed crazy enough to activate this kind of a scenario. Netanyahu told the US Congress that the days when Israelis were “passive in the face of those who want to annihilate us — those days are over!” This seems to adumbrate an attack on Iran in which the US would be obliged to join. One hopes that Obama is issuing confidential ultimata warning against such a lunatic adventure.
Also, Netanyahu cannot act alone. Israel possesses an inner cabinet or war cabinet, which reserves for itself the power to initiate hostilities. But this war cabinet has been riven in recent months by bitter disputes, perhaps facilitating a coup that would outflank it.
This kind of situation appears made to order for crazed meddlers typified by McCain, Petronius, ISIS czar Allen, Gen. Breedlove, and others. The American people want peace, but large sectors of the depraved US elite feel that war would be to their advantage. And we have not even mentioned Ukraine or Syria.
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