A poll out of Emerson College Polling released Thursday afternoon shows a notable amount of early support for a third party contender in the 2024 general election. The poll examined several hypothetical scenarios, including one which featured Dr. Cornel West, who recently announced his intention to pursue the Green Party nomination after declaring the same for the People’s Party, and two others that provided a nameless option for someone else besides the Republican and Democratic nominees.
In a hypothetical match where incumbent President Joe Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are their respective party’s nominees, Biden leads DeSantis by several points, 42.5% to 36.7%. However, given the two choices, 13.9% of voters would throw their support behind a nameless third option.
Replacing DeSantis with Donald Trump sees Biden’s lead over the Republican challenger close to less than a quarter percentage point (43.5% to 43.4%), and the number of voters willing to support a third choice also drop to just under nine percent (8.9%).
Adding Dr. Cornel West into the mix with Donald Trump and Joe Biden while still giving voters the option to support a nameless fourth choice sees Trump narrowly move ahead. Donald Trump leads Joe Biden at 41.4% to 40.3%, with the unnamed fourth option earning a solid seven percent (7%) and Dr. Cornel West with just under six percent (5.8%) of voters.
A closer examination of the crosstabs shows that in the scenario featuring Ron DeSantis as the Republican nominee, 19.5% of Republicans and 17.9% of self-identified independents would support someone other than the two major party candidates. A smaller 5.4% of Democratic voters would select a third choice.
In the hypothetical match-up involving Trump and featuring West, the total number of independents supporting neither major party nominee increases, with almost ten percent (9.7%) going to West and 13.8% supporting a fourth choice. West benefits almost equally from Republicans (4.5%) and Democrats (4.1%), while more Republican voters (5.6%) refuse to support either three candidates than Democrats (3%).
Removing West as a choice but keeping Trump as the Republican nominee sees the support of a nameless third choice return to a higher 18.7% among self-identified independents. In contrast, seven percent (7%) of Republican voters break away from Biden and Trump compared to three percent (3%) of Democratic voters.
Presented as the third option, Cornel West performs his best with the college-educated (6.7%), self-identified independents (9.7%), voters between 18 and 34 years (13.1%), Black voters (14.9%), and nonbinary voters (31%).
In addition to the general election, the Emerson College Polling survey also explored the Democratic and Republican Party primaries. In another crowded Republican primary, Donald Trump leads a field of nine candidates and a tenth nameless choice among 58.8% of Republicans and associated independents. Ron DeSantis follows him with 20.7% support and Mike Pence with 6.4% of such voters. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden leads with 72.6% of Democratic and associated independent voters. He leads Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 14.5%, an unlisted Democratic choice with 10.4%, and Marianne Williamson with three percent (2.5%).
The Emerson College Polling survey engaged 1,015 registered voters nationwide via landline, cellphone, SMS, and email from June 19 to June 20, 2023. The sample of voters Emerson College Polling surveyed is based on 2024 registration modeling and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
We see people claiming this every four years. It’s like a version of a “generic ballot” poll.