Following the conviction of Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, Ron Paul has decided to endorse Bob Bird, the Alaskan Independence Party’s candidate for U.S. Senate. The announcement will be made official shortly, but it has been confirmed by internal e-mails from Ron Paul’s staff.
Stevens still has a shot.
Then he’d better use it on himself, because he isn’t going to be re-elected.
Well Ds and Rs don’t do that. Don’t you remember that Texas election with FunnyNamelady write-in who was certain to lose and the NiceUpstandingLibertarianDude?
Good point. However, Palin is on the Republican ticket because she appeals to independent minded conservatives who are seen as likely to bolt and vote for Barr or Baldwin, not vote, vote for Obama to help speed up their fantasies of bringing on a looming race war, or whatever.
At this point, trailing badly with little hope of winning, more of them might consider making such choices. A dramatic move by Palin, such as endorsing Bird, would bring some of them home. Stevens is already going to be sacrificed. At this point the Republicans would be wise to practice triage.
Stevens still has a shot.
Shelly Skula-Gibbs (R) and Bob Smither (L)
Yea, but until recently Stevens WAS competitive.
Well Ds and Rs don’t do that. Don’t you remember that Texas election with FunnyNamelady write-in who was certain to lose and the NiceUpstandingLibertarianDude?
Republicans would rather be crushed by Democrats ( and vice versa) than endorse a conservative/small government minor party candidate. They will endorse convicted criminals first.
why would one party’s leader endorse anyone outside of their party?
Because their party’s candidate is not going to win?
Both of those statements are ridiculous. Paul doesn’t endorse anyone running against an incumbent Republican (except for this cause of the conviction) and why would one party’s leader endorse anyone outside of their party?
The self proclaimed anti-corruption team of McCain/Palin has called for Stevens to resign. If they truly want to be seen as independents and anti-corruption they will endorse Bob Bird, especially Palin the Governor of Alaska. Her endorsement might mean more than Ron Paul’s in Alaska.
I think that it is a little shameful that Ron Paul waited this long and then made an endorsement. He should have endorsed Bird long ago no matter what happened with Stevens.
Indeed, our state recognizes political parties(Democrats, Republicans, AIP,etc) and then there is another category for “political groups” which are partisan organziations without ballot access.
No Ross,they’ve achieved the max status and there is no method for becoming a “Major party” like in some states.
I mean, will the state recognize them as a new kind of party because of a certain showing in a statewide race?
Anyway mid to high single digits is probably reachable by Bird but I doubt that he will break into double digits.
What do you mean by minor party status? The Alaskan Independence Party is already a recognized political party with automatic ballot access.
Will that get them any kind of new “minor party” status or anything like that?
“Except God.”
I laughed.
Haase endorsed Stevens.
With all that said–I bet Bird scores more tha 3%.
The AIP got 1.23% in 2004,and 2.93% in 2002.
I’d bet somewhere around 5-6%.
Haase endorsed Stevens, apparently.
How is Bird better than Haase? Or is there still some kind of anti-LP vendetta in C4L?
We know Begich’s father was a good guy since J Edgar assassinated him. Not so sure about Mark though. Too bad Nick Jr aint running.
Now you’re baiting cath-trot…
Except God.
Can’t judge without much else being equal. Nobody’s endorsement could overcome the fact that Baldwin will be on about 30% fewer voters’ ballots than Barr.
Rasmussen just released a post guilty verdict poll that includes Bob Bird.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/alaska/election_2008_alaska_senate
“The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Alaska voters, conducted a day after Stevens was found guilty of filing false financial disclosure forms, finds that 52% plan to vote for Begich while 44% support Stevens. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bob Bird picks up three percent (3%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided. ”
So, 3% despite the guilty verdict, seems like most people are shifting to Begich whether they are conservative or not. Somehow I doubt the late Paul endorsement will have much of an impact.
Ron Paul recieved 2,363 votes in the Alaskan Republican Caucus and placed ahead of McCain. It’s hard to tell from a caucus how the actual vote will turn out but it should be said that Bird recieved more votes in the blanket primary than Paul did during the caucus.
If Baldwin gets half the votes of Barr I would be thoroughly impressed and would be at awe of the power of a Ron Paul endorsement. To have any one person’s endorsement move hundreds of thousands of people to vote third party in “the most important election of our lifetimes” would be an incredible feat.
at this point we just have a disagreement. It may be impossible to tell the value of a Ron Paul endorsement in Alaska, where we both agree the conviction of the Republican nominee is going to influence the outcome.
But, can we establish something about the value of a Ron Paul endorsement in general?
If Chuck Baldwin beats Barr, that would be the power of a Ron Paul endorsement….if Chuck Baldwin gets less than half of Barr’s vote total, that would display that Ron Paul really didn’t move a lot of people at all.
Whose bold enough to say Baldwin’s Ron Paul endorsement will propel him all the way to 50% of Barrs total?
C’mon…anyone?
With that said, Ron Paul’s endorsements are a net positive. They don’t cost a candidate votes yet.
Sorry,
There are still some stalwarts here who will vote for Stevens despite the guilty verdict. Let me just tell you that on the ground level here in Alaska, there is little awareness for BoB Bird. There of course may be some pockets of support in more conservative areas such as Ketchikan.
“In other words, Ron Paul’s very late endorsement came only as a result of the Stevens conviction.
The Stevens conviction is going to throw a great deal of support to the Alaskan Independent party, and Ron Paul really has nothing to do with it.”
Obviously Stevens’ conviction will help Bird alot more than Paul’s endorsement, but Paul’s endorsement is pretty good to get anyway. Bird was previously polling somewhere between 3 and 8 percent (depending on the polls you use and how you analyze them), probably nearer to the low end of that. But with Stevens being convicted, we should expect to see that number rise. However, there were probably still a great deal of Paul supporters and Republicans who look upon Paul kindly who were thinking of voting for Stevens or might’ve supported Libertarian Haase. This breaks that decision.
that should read ‘evenly weighted’, not ‘even weightly’, haha
Ron Paul might as well wait until after the elections to make his endorsements. Then he can pile on where people won with absolute precision.
High single digits is a bit hopeful IMO. Bob Bird may have some following but he still doesn’t have the coverage of Begich and Stevens and doesn’t have any adds that I have seen.
Ron Paul’s endorsement may have made a difference if it came earlier but who knows how many people will even hear of it?
well the combination of Sen. Stevens conviction and the Ron Paul endorsement is not even weightly nor unrelated.
In other words, Ron Paul’s very late endorsement came only as a result of the Stevens conviction.
The Stevens conviction is going to throw a great deal of support to the Alaskan Independent party, and Ron Paul really has nothing to do with it.
But nevertheless, thanks for breaking the story.
Once again,we’re the first to break the news.
The only other person I can see Paul endorsing is Robert Owens in the Ohio AG race. But it is really too late for an endorsement there to have any effect.
With the combination of the conviction of Sen. Stevens, the knowledge that Begich has this race wrapped up, and the Ron Paul endorsement—Bob Bird should score well into double digits.