I am heading out of town for a while, so I figured I’d go ahead and give my guess about the vote totals for alternative party presidential candidates to leave you with something to talk about. I will refrain on offering a final prediction on the overall winner, though right now I expect the Democratic ticket to win by three to six percentage points. As for the candidates we care about, these are all the folks I expect to receive more than 1,000 votes. Note that many of these are just guesses, and that in 2000 I predicted Ralph Nader would get about 4,000,000 votes and Harry Browne 800,000…
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Will Chelene Nightingale for governor 2010 california ever explain her bankruptcy filing last year? If you plan on running for an office and a very high office that pertains to millions of tax payers and their lives shouldn’t a serious candidate explain their background to the VOTERS!! yOU OWE THEM that at least…or else don’t run.
A lot is going to depend on how the race breaks in the next few weeks. If Obama is heading towards a landslide, then look for leftists in safe blue states to switch their votes to Nader and McKinney and likewise, if rightist feel McCain is toast, they may stash their votes with Barr or Baldwin, et al.
Most voters are not that sophisticated. If it looks like a landslide, look for better totals regardless of safe state or swing state.
But, look for a last minute false flag that the race is tightening up; the media want to keep people watching and is afraid they will lose interest otherwise.
A lot is going to depend on how the race breaks in the next few weeks. If Obama is heading towards a landslide, then look for leftists in safe blue states to switch their votes to Nader and McKinney and likewise, if rightist feel McCain is toast, they may stash their votes with Barr or Baldwin, et al.
I believe Nader and Barr will get over a million votes and Baldwin will have the highest vote total of any CP candidate before him.
I agree with Tom in post #66.
Me too.
Although I was a supporter of Barr during the LP nominating process, the combination of his message tailored largely to disaffected conservatives, the nomination of Obama by the Dems, and McCain’s selection of Palin just does not set up the LP for a great vote total this November.
As I would have, and did, predict then.
On the other hand, who knows what could have happened if McCain had gone with Lieberman as his v.p. choice. The disaffected conservative routine might have done well.
Baldwin would have been a strong contender for many of those votes if that had been the case.
Barr knows how to shift away from a failed strategy when he wants to. He has worked closely with people on the left, such as the ACLU and his speech at a progressive blogger conference a while back.
It’s long past due for him to realize that tailoring his message largely to disaffected conservatives is not the optimal strategy, and do something to change that.
I agree with Tom in post #66.
Although I was a supporter of Barr during the LP nominating process, the combination of his message tailored largely to disaffected conservatives, the nomination of Obama by the Dems, and McCain’s selection of Palin just does not set up the LP for a great vote total this November.
On the other hand, who knows what could have happened if McCain had gone with Lieberman as his v.p. choice. The disaffected conservative routine might have done well.
Another accurate prediction from Mike as well!
I have another predictions.
The 2012 election will also be “the most important election of our lifetime†and “too important to lose.â€
svf,
We will have a team doing that right here at IPR (we hope).
on a related note — it may be too early to know but does anyone know where they might be reporting the non-R&D candidate votes “real time” on election night…? Did anyone do so in 2004 (I was “offline” at the time…)
Nader will easily beat Barr. 3rd and 4th place, respectively.
Obama will suck away many Nader and McKinney voters.
McCain/Palin will suck away many Barr and Baldwin voters, even if they election isn’t that close. Some people fear Obama so much, they’ll take a wild chance that McCain can still win, even if he’s way behind in the polls.
As always, many people will decide that this is “the most important election of our lifetime” and “too important to lose.”
I predict that an awful lot of people will hold their noses and “go home” to the major party of their choice.
Not really.
Because to be horribly honest, most people voting for Barr and Baldwin will never see that debate, whether it happened or not.
Only us third party political nerds watch these things.
The Barr/Baldwin ratio in these predictions would totally change if only Barr had the balls to debate Baldwin this Sunday.
Mike Gillis in #60 is exactly correct.
As long as we’re all throwing in our own wild mostly-baseless predictions, I might as well make mine.
Ralph Nader: 700,000-1,000,000
Bob Barr: 450,000-600,000
Chuck Baldwin: 210,000-230,000
Cynthia McKinney: 180,000-200,000
Ron Paul: 15,000-35,000
Alan Keyes: 15,000-30,000
Gloria La Riva: 10,000-15,000
Róger Calero: 9,000-11,000
Brian Moore: 8,000-9,000
Charles Jay: 1,000-5,000
The ranges are admittedly large, but it’s hard to be precise.
Coming Back to the LP: Can you call me again? I think you still have my number?
“Nader won’t do as well as in 2004 , Obama is perceived as more progressive/antiwar than Kerry. He’s doing better than Barr in polls due to name rec only. Also, the states he’s missing access (TX, NC, IN) are largish, the state’s Barr’s missing are smaller.”
Nader is on the ballot in twelve states that he failed to get on in 2004, including some of the biggest – California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Virginia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Ohio….
He’s going to get more votes that he did last time, even with a more popular Obama candidate running against him.
He’s raised more money than he did in 2004, has run a better campaign and has polled in solid single digits – higher digits than Barr.
Barr’s campaign just hasn’t lived up to the high expectations it tried to create for itself and it’s gone out of its way to alienate its base on more than one occasion.
Nader will top Barr’s vote total and his 2004 total.
Barr 690,000
Nader 450,000
McKinney 135,000
Baldwin 120,000
Paul 21,000
Nader won’t do as well as in 2004 , Obama is perceived as more progressive/antiwar than Kerry. He’s doing better than Barr in polls due to name rec only. Also, the states he’s missing access (TX, NC, IN) are largish, the state’s Barr’s missing are smaller.
Other predictions:
Largest vote total for an LP candidate: William Strange for TX Court of Criminal Appeals. 23%, 900,000 votes or more. He has an even chance of breaking 1M and winning a county or two in South Texas.
Ralph Nader (Independent): 850,000
Bob Barr (Libertarian): 475,000
Cynthia McKinney (Green): 155,000
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 125,000
Ron Paul (Constitution/Louisiana Taxpayers): 60,000
Alan Keyes (America’s Independent): 30,000
Gloria La Riva (Socialism and Liberation): 12,000
Roger Calero, or stand-ins (Socialist Workers): 8,000
Brian Moore (Socialist): 4,000
Charles Jay (Boston Tea): 2,000
This is an overall failure for 3rd parties this year. It started out looking like it could have been a great year, but the two idiots made this into one of the most popular elections in history.
At one point it looked as if Barr, Nader, and McKinney could have gotten 1%.
My predictions:
Nader/Gonzalez: 1.200,000 votes.
Barr/Root: 800,000 votes
McKinney/Clemente: 600,000 votes
Baldwin/Castle: 200,000 votes
These numbers do not include write-ins, which generally won’t get counted for weeks, anyway.
I’d like to think that McKinney could beat Barr for 4th place, and 6 months ago I was thinking McKinney could have taken 3rd, but Nader has raised more money, is much more organized, and run a much better campaign than McKinney, sadly.
Baldwin is just not on enough ballots, and the Greens have a bigger baseline than CP, for him to be competitive with the other 3.
All in all, tho, a very bad year for 3rd party politics. In this climate, the big four should combine for 5%, they’ll be lucky to get 2.
So that a little history might direct future predictions, here are the results from 2004…
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 62,040,610
John Kerry John Edwards Democratic 59,028,439
Ralph Nader Peter Camejo Independent 463,655
Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna Libertarian 397,265
Michael Peroutka Charles Baldwin Constitution 144,499
David Cobb Pat LaMarche Green 119,859
Leonard Peltier Janice Jordan Peace & Freedom 27,607
Walt Brown Mary Alice Herbert Socialist 10,822
Roger Calero Arrin Hawkins Socialist Workers 10,795
Thomas Harens Jennifer Ryan Christian Freedom 2,387
Gene Amondson Leroy Pletten Concerns of People 1,944
Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence Socialist Equality 1,857
John Parker Teresa Gutierrez Workers World 1,646
Charles Jay Marilyn Taylor Personal Choice 946
Stanford Andress Irene Deasy Independent 804
Earl Dodge Howard Lydick Prohibition 140
Ralph Nader: 1,000,000-1,500,000
Bob Barr: 700,000-1,000,000
Baldwin: 200,000-300,000
McKinney: 200,000-250,000
Ralph Nader (Independent): 800,000
Bob Barr (Libertarian): 405,000
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 320,000
Cynthia McKinney (Green): 180,000
Ron Paul (Constitution/Louisiana Taxpayers): 55,000
Alan Keyes (America’s Independent): 30,000
Gloria La Riva (Socialism and Liberation): 12,000
Roger Calero, or stand-ins (Socialist Workers): 10,000
Brian Moore (Socialist): 8,000
Charles Jay (Boston Tea): 8,000
I see Nader topping a million again, though he won’t match 00. Barr at around 6ooK-700K, McKinney 400K, Baldwin down around 200K, won’t make 20K in CA. I don’t expect Keyes to break 40K.
I also expect McCain to take it by a hair in the popular vote and stun you all in the EC, with the Dems making gains in both houses, but short of supermajority. Then we get to enjoy “bipartisanship” for 2-4 years 🙁
You guys may be right. I may be wrong about McKinney, in particular because she’s competing with Nader for a lot of “disaffected leftist in states where Obama will romp” votes.
I don’t think I’m wrong about Barr. I think he’ll do better than any LP candidate since Ed Clark, but not as well as Clark. If the polls between McCain and Obama tighten up that will hurt him, but he’s got some name rec that should boost him a little above 1996-2004 LP totals.
Oh, and I forgot Jay.
For him, I’m predicting 750-5,000 votes.
Barr: 400,000 votes or less.
Oops, forgot my John Murphy predictions:
Joe Pitts (R, inc): 52%
Bruce Slater (D): 36%
John Murphy (I): 7.5%
Dan Frank (C): 4.5%
These aren’t really based on anything. Just the fact that it’s a strong Republican district, Murphy got 4% in 2004, and the Constitution Party national headquarters are in the district.
My predictions for the 2008 presidential election (and John Murphy’s race):
*The first number is my most pessimistic prediction, the second number is my most optimistic prediction.
Nader: 640,000-1.7 million votes
Barr: 560,000-1.2 million votes
McKinney: 220,000-510,000 votes
Baldwin: 120,000-390,000 votes
Keyes: 8,000-65,000 votes
La Riva: 6,000-15,000 votes
Calero: 4,000-12,000 votes
Moore: 2,500-11,000 votes
Paul: 4,000-65,000 votes
Don’t take my word for it, though. I’m sure most of the people here would have a better idea of the vote totals than I would. And I’ll bet none of us have a half-decent idea of what the vote totals will be.
That is impressive.
Robert Owens, candidate for AG in Ohio, is endorsed by the LP, CP, and Reform Parties, the John Birch Society, the local Concealed Carry group, and the Ohio Freedom Alliance.
I’ve got a fusion ticket for you – my personal favorite local candidate (no offense to any reading this): John Murphy. He’s endorsed by the LP, the GP, and the Reform Party (he’s also endorsed by Howard Zinn, Mike Gravel, and Ralph Nader, and I’m pretty sure he was also endorsed by Peter Camejo, Noam Chomsky, the New American Independent Party, and Michael Berg).
I think the ultimate ticket: Paul/McKinney. If McKinney could come around to decentralized socialism (i.e. the Vermont Progressives), it would work.
Progressive Alliance!
I think that if McKinney had maintained her momentum last spring summer, and announced last September, and ran as more of an independent peace and justice candidate, she would be polling well into the multiple hundred thousands. And if Nader had not decided to run, again.
That said, I think McKinney will do way better than Cobb.
I think Nader will maybe double his vote in ’04, maybe breat 1 mil. Especially as it becomes more and more apparent that Obama is going to win by a landslide. I think a margin of 10+% over McCain is not unreasonable. Especially if the seeds of the now wholly discredited neo-liberal economics policies continue to create more economic catastrophe.
In Paul had run as an indie in Nov, he’d easily pull down 8-10 million votes.
Wow, everyone is more optimistic for Barr’s chances than I am.
My predicton is that the election will be cancelled due to some real or manufactured national emergency.
If that doesn’t happen, I expect the Democrats to win a landslide of historic proportions all up and down the ticket, including the Presidency. I think McCain will probably carry Utah, though.
Next year, there will be bumperstickers that say “don’t blame me, I’m from Utah”.
Nader is the only alternative candidate I see with any real chance to get over 1 mil votes, and if so, just barely.
I think Paul will beat Keyes.
Not so much a prediction as a wish.
I think he’ll still soundly defeat her, despite not getting on in California.
The sad part about the California debacle is that the AIP was poised to score more Presidential votes than any election since 1976. There were California donors who were going to buy Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Buchanan (2000)’s lists for Baldwin’s benefit.
I would predict that Baldwin would beat McKinney if he was on the California ballot.
Since he’s not, I would argue that he has a 35-40% chance of beating McKinney.
The absolute most votes I could see McKinney getting would be 250,000 to 300,000.
She just hasn’t run a very good campaign, more and more she’s aligning herself with the fringe of even third party circles and the few times she’s appeared above the radar, it hasn’t been beneficial to her.
She’ll clearly get more votes than David Cobb did (which isn’t hard), but she won’t get close to even Nader ’96 levels of support.
“Cynthia McKinney (Green): 850k-950k”
HAHAHAHA. Not gunna happen.
Thomas, I think you are seriously overestimating McKinney in that prediction. She’s really run an under-the-radar campaign and is only on 32 ballots.
Barr, despite his various fuck ups, is still far better known at this point and is on 45 ballots. All things being equal between them in the states they’re on the ballot, she’d still fall behind him because of their ballot access discrepency.
To beat Barr, McKinney would have to outperform him in all of the states he’s on the ballot with her.
I think Ron Paul’s endorsement will either hurt Barr more than it helps Baldwin or have no significant effect.
svf: For that to happen, you’d need to see a major gaffe from Obama that would absolutely destroy him – because right now all he has to do is wait.
Based on all statewide polls for the EC, all Obama has to do is hold on to all of the states where he has at least a 5% lead and he’ll get the 270 he needs.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
He can lose all of the swing states, most of which he’s winning in right now, and still win the election.
OK you got me…obviously I meant IndependentPoliticalReport!! I have made that slip repeatedly over the last few weeks and months.
My predictions:
Ralph Nader (Independent): 1-1.2 million
Cynthia McKinney (Green): 850k-950k
Bob Barr (Libertarian): 750k-850k
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 250k
Charles Jay (Boston Tea): 10,000
Call me crazy, but for some reason I still think McCain will come out of this bloodbath with a few more electoral votes and pull off a win. Just a gut feeling.
Richard: Here’s a clue — if something is interesting, you’re not at TPW.
I agree about Obama’s victory, but I think that the popular vote spread won’t be as big as 10%.
I’m thinking closer to 5-6%.
Coming back,
I tihnk you are right about Obama’s victory.
As for the big boys:
Obama will win by 10% or more over McCain nationwide.
I’m looking for Obama to get from 376-417 electoral votes. Probably about 407.
McCain from 121-162 electoral votes. Prob: 131.
Barrett is doing a national poll tonight that may shed light on these predictions.
No way Ron Paul scores as low as 25,000.
He’s polling 7% in Montana alone, which accounts for roughly 30,000 votes.
Ralph Nader (Independent): 1,300,000
Bob Barr (Libertarian): 1,350,000
Cynthia McKinney (Green): 145,000
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 165,000
Alan Keyes (America’s Independent): 35,000
Ron Paul (Constitution/Louisiana Taxpayers): 25,000
Gloria La Riva (Socialism and Liberation): 10,000
Roger Calero, or stand-ins (Socialist Workers): 6,000
Brian Moore (Socialist): 6,000
Charles Jay (Boston Tea): 800
One more prediction: The LP will finish this election in either its best or 2nd best ballot access position ever following a presidential election.
G.E., I specifically said I am not now making any prediction. And I explained why.
Daily KOS! haha.
Oh, you’re serious, Richard?
Here’s a prediction: Ralph Nader and Bob Barr won’t get 3 million combined, let alone each.
You’ve been around long enough you should know better.
Here’s another interesting question…suppose Ron Paul would have endorsed Baldwin after the Republican primary season had ended, the middle of the ballot access drive, do you think Baldwin would have ended up on more ballots?
The Daily Kos tracking poll has been showing Nader at 2%, and Barr at 2%, for weeks now.
If there are 150,000,000 votes cast, 2% of that would be 3,000,000 votes apiece for each of them. Barr is on the ballot in 95% to 96% of the electorate (depending on Connecticut).
People who pay attention to polls know that Gallup doesn’t ask voters about anyone but Obama and McCain.
The real determinant will be how close the election is perceived to be, just before election day. I’m not predicting anything yet because that variable is still unsettled. Anyone, kudos to ThirdPartyWatch for opening up this fun subject.
well, it’s just that the CP is only “write-in” status in many of the biggest states… plus one of Baldwin’s better prospects would be in MT where Ron Paul is on the Ballot for the CP instead. I just don’t sense much of a “Baldwin bump” from the RP endorsement.
but again, we shall see.
Trent, I’d also say John Murphy in PA will score in the high single or low double digits.
svf,
I’d guess more like 30-40,000.
The reason I put Baldwin over McKinney and over 200k–Ron Paul’s endorsement.
Well… I would wager that RP’s endorsement of Baldwin is good for maybe 1,000-2,000 more votes than the CP usually gets overall. We shall see, though.
Other elections to watch: The Nebraska Party’s Senatorial candidate will likely place first in one county and second in a few others.
Janine Hansen, of the IAP (CP) in Nevada is likely to poll 40%+ and maybe win her State Senate seat.
Robert Owens, running for AG in Ohio, is likely to poll double digits.
David Krikorian, Michael Jackson, Michael Hsing, Kevorkian, and Eckhart are all Independents who are likely to score high single digits or double digits in their US REP races.
Pollina (Ind/Prog for gov of Vermont) is easily the strongest third-party candidate for governor in the country,with possibility for double digits. Gregory Thompson, CP candidate for governor in Missouri, will also be one to watch.
For US Senate: David Brownlow CP-Oregon is polling high single digits, and Dean Barkley Independent-Minnesota is polling 18-19% in that Senate race.
Also of interest will be Carroll, the Green in Arkansas who is alone on the ballot.
The reason I put Baldwin over McKinney and over 200k–Ron Paul’s endorsement.
The reason I think Nader will win and get 750k+, 22 offices (6 in CA alone). My guess would be that he gets 115k from California alone.
The reason McKinney is so low –Nader is running again and doing well. McKinney votes were supposed to come from dissapointed Obama voters or dissapointed Clinton voters. Neither panned out.
The reason Ron Paul does 40k? He’s polling 7% in Montana and Bob Barr isnt on the ballot in LA.
The reason Alan Keyes gets 32k? 20k or so comes from California.
My Predictions
Ralph Nader (Independent): 780,000
Bob Barr (Libertarian): 520,000
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 204,000
Cynthia McKinney (Green): 170,000
Ron Paul (CP/Louisiana Taxpayers): 40,000
Alan Keyes (America’s Independent): 32,000
Gloria La Riva (Soc & Lib): 16,000
Roger Calero(Socialist Workers): 14,000
Brian Moore (Socialist):9,000
Charles Jay (Boston Tea): 2,500
Now lose like the good losers you are.
Good morning, sunshine!
You assholes can’t criticize me. What I said would get 40 mil. votes was not tried. not even close. Gravel/Ruwart might have been promoted as such, after I briefed them. Clueless. svf mentions a RP/LP/CP effort. This would be the exact opposite of a progressive alliance. & “Bob” Barr , our first name basis friend & misleader is the leader of the starr’s & barr’s party. Now lose like the good losers you are.
My prediction: All of the above will lose.
I think Baldwin will get more votes than McKinney, simply from Ron Paul’s endorsement…although now that I think about it, McKinney is on the ballot in CA, which will help.
I think Nader will get over a million votes. I think Barr could have earlier in the campaign, but now he’ll be lucky to break 500,000.
I also think Gene Amondson will get over 1,000 votes too. He did in 2004 in just CO and LA, and now he’s on in FL.
I am still holding out hope that Bob manages to beat Ralph for the third place victory that nobody but us cares about, but it will definitely be close.
I unfortunately agree that neither Barr nor Nader will approach the coveted one million vote benchmark that Harry Browne was after.
In general, this is just sorta depressing in a “here we go again” kind of way.
Of all the third-party candidates who might have been, perhaps (big perhaps) Ron Paul could have hit high single digits in the final tally. We’ll never know. If he launched a third-party/LP+CP endorsed campaign somewhere around late February he certainly would have had the momentum and money to get on ballots in 49-50 states I would imagine and keep the media vaguely interested. With this “financial crisis” playing to his strong points, who knows — maybe even 15%+ in polls thus a spot in at least one debate. Anyway, pointless to ponder.
* sigh *
Mr.Milnes..Have you ever tried your fusion idea on a local or state level?If not maybe you should do it there first.If it works it will give you a “visual aid” in 4 years…
Oh and Milnes….add up all the numbers you see above and see if you can break 50 million or more voters.
My predictions:
Nader/Gonzalez: 800,000 to 1 million votes.
Barr/Root: 500,000 to 700,000 votes
McKinney/Clemente: 160,000 to 250,000 votes
Baldwin/Castle: 130,000 to 180,000 votes
The duopoly covered every base this time. Goodbye, electoral integrity.
I think Nader will get more than 670,000 votes.
I think given that he’s on the ballot in CA, PA, IL, OR and nearly a dozen states that he failed to get on in 2004 and given how the animosity has lessened against him, that he can pull in at least 700,000 or 800,000 votes.
I have my fingers crossed that he can top a million. I think it’s quite possible this year.
“Losers” who happen to be on some ballots, at least.
You’re not on any ballot, Robert. What does that make you?
not one fusion ticket. All losers again. But, maybe next time-in another 4 years.