Libertarian Shawn Johnson’s campaign for Wyoming’s sole U.S. House seat is attracting attention from state media as a possible long-shot opening for the party, driven largely in part by uncertainty surrounding the race’s crowded Republican primary.
Cowboy State Daily wrote in a recent article that a “perfect storm” could potentially benefit Johnson if he is able to successfully appeal to conservative voters in the aftermath of a crowded Republican primary where the nominee could emerge politically damaged ahead of the general election.
Johnson, identified by the outlet as a Thermopolis-based attorney and former Army combat medic, was recently nominated by the Libertarian Party of Wyoming at its convention in Green River. He previously served two terms on the Casper City Council, including one year as vice mayor, and has twice before run as a Libertarian candidate.
The Libertarian Party is currently recognized by Wyoming as a minor party, meaning its nominees are selected at the party’s convention rather than through the state’s primary process. As a result, Johnson is slated to appear on the November general election ballot, where he will face the eventual Republican nominee from what has become a 10-candidate field. There are also two candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for the same seat.
Uncertainty surrounding the GOP primary is central to the scenario put forward by Cowboy State Daily, given that Republicans have traditionally dominated Wyoming’s U.S. House races by wide margins while Democrats have struggled to remain competitive. A survey from Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates of 400 Wyoming Republican voters from May 13 to May 16 reportedly found the GOP primary deeply divided, with Secretary of State Chuck Gray leading at 21 percent. He was followed by Reid Rasner at 14 percent and Steve Friess at 10 percent, while no other candidate broke into double digits and one-third of respondents were identified as strongly undecided.
A potential Gray victory could present an opening for Johnson because of controversies associated with Gray’s tenure as secretary of state. While in office, Gray has drawn negative attention for issues including his decision to provide sensitive voter information to the U.S. Department of Justice, his clashes with Gov. Mark Gordon, and his shifting position on a proposed gravel pit near Casper Mountain.
If the Republican nominee is ultimately viewed unfavorably by conservative voters, and Johnson is able to appeal to them, the outlet suggested he could draw enough Republican-leaning voters to become viable himself rather than merely splitting the conservative vote and creating an opening for the Democratic nominee.
The premise still presents an uphill challenge, given it rests largely on what happens in the Republican primary. However, even without the unique election atmosphere, the state’s Libertarian candidates have produced several unusually strong results in recent years, giving Johnson’s candidacy more context than a typical third party congressional bid.
In 2020, Marshall Burt won election to the Wyoming House of Representatives from District 39, while Bethany Baldes came within 32 votes of defeating Republican Ember Oakley in House District 55. Both campaigns benefited from the Libertarian National Committee’s Frontier Project, though the party continued to post notable legislative results in 2022, including roughly 28 percent for Patrick Gonzales in House District 15, 33 percent for Misty Morris in House District 48, 39 percent for Baldes in a rematch against Oakley, and 25 percent for Burt in his reelection campaign.
Johnson has also posted notable results himself, receiving roughly 25 percent in a 2020 state House race and nearly 9 percent in a 2022 vote-for-three Natrona County Commission race.
Those results alone do not necessarily translate to Johnson’s campaign performing similarly in a statewide congressional race, especially one where Johnson would need to compete across a much larger electorate and against other nominees with significant institutional support. Cowboy State Daily also notes that its hypothetical does not factor in the impact of the Constitution Party, which has been open about fielding a gubernatorial candidate but has not yet said if its slate this year includes a congressional candidate.
Still, depending on the Republican primary result, the race could become one of the stronger Libertarian showings this cycle and may, at the least, give the party a chance to qualify for major party status if Johnson captures over 10 percent. Both the Republican and Democratic nominees will be decided on August 18.
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