I’m heading to sleep shortly, but I’ve been crunching some numbers for the last 20 minutes and it looks extremely likely that Barr will top the 500,000 vote mark so long as nothing changes significantly in the way he’s performing.
Ralph Nader also has reason to celebrate, sort of. His 1996 showing of 685,000 votes appears well within reach. The math I’m doing actually has Nader just about 700,000 when all is said and done. Once write-in votes are counted, that will go a bit higher.
And just a note… it looks like McKinney will do significantly better than Cobb in 2004. Combined, Nader and McKinney will post around 1 million far-left votes for President.
“The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.â€
Actually, with something like 12 or 14 thousand members and a typical donation of 150 dollars –I think that is the Obama and the Paul number–you get something over 2 million, which is not far off from what we saw: Barr raised somewhat over a million, and the LNC will raise by year-end perhaps over 1.5 million.
# lemur Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Donâ€™t forget Nebraskaâ€™s second district (Omaha) electoral vote. Latest results show McCain ahead by about 500; Nader has 1502; McKinney 292.
Nebraska splits electoral votes by Congressional District.
has a thread saying that Nader stole one electoral vote from Obama in Nebraska.
I’m not seeing this anywhere.. I assume it was, uh, an urban legend or something?
rdupuy says: “Guys lets face it, if you are young and new to the LP, your campaigning against your own candidate in Bob Barr, did nothing except harm.The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.”
Sorry that we unbathed povertarian radicals held onto our $2 million which we would have gladly given to Mary Ruwart, but that’s just politics I guess.
Add Alan Keyes’ 29,473 votes in California to Baldwin’s national total of 173,182 and he easily breaks the record. Also, write-ins havent been counted. Baldwin will undoubtedly get about 3-5,000 write-ins.
Baldwin scored more votes this year than in 2004 despite not being on the ballot in the best state for the CP, California–or Pennsylvania.
[ also posted at reason… ]
1972: unknown philosophy professor: 3,674 (0.0%) : 1 electoral vote
1976: unknown elector for unknown philosophy professor: 172,553 (0.2%) : 0 electoral votes
1980: unknown lawyer with wealthy running mate: 921,128 (1.1%) : 0 electoral votes
1984: unknown party activist: 172,553 (0.2%) : 0 electoral votes
1988: barely-known TX ex-congressman: 432,179 (0.5%) : 0 electoral votes
1992: unknown AK state rep : 291,627 (0.3%) : 0 electoral votes
1996: unknown writer and investment analyst : 485,798 (0.5%) : 0 electoral votes
2000: same guy as 1996 : 384,516 (0.4%) : 0 electoral votes
2004: unknwon software engineer : 397,265 (0.3%) : 0 electoral votes
2008: moderately-known GA ex-congressman : 484,147 (0.4%) : 0 electoral votes
so what have we learned?
unknown philosophy professor + wealthy running mate for president in 2012!
Sadly I am starting to agree that Nader shouldn’t run anymore or that Nader should run as a Green. Overall his political fortitude is wanning, he was on 45 state ballots this year and he may just barely top his 1996 showing. Gonzalez could provide hope for the future but from what I read he looks forward to returning to a private life so I don’t anticipate him really leading the cause for those of us on the left.
This is only my second presidential election and I am experiencing a severe case of ennui already.
p.s. in terms of having your own campaign sabotaged by family members… what can I say.
The Green Party is being depressed every four years by having Nader run against them for the same votes. The CP party could have taken off more, except Alan Keyes managed to get them kicked off the ballot in California.
We had people behaving very badly too, but all in all, they weren’t quite as successful at harming their own this time around. If anything the CP and Greens got whammied a bit harder.
Nader 0.52% Independent
Barr 0.40% Libertarian
Baldwin 0.14% Constitution
McKinney 0.11% Green
Nader 0.38% Independent
Badnarik 0.32% Libertarian
Peroutka 0.12% Constitution
Cobb 0.10% Green
Nader 2.73% Green
Buchanan 0.43% Reform
Browne 0.36% Libertarian
Phillips 0.11% Constitution
Perot 8.40% Reform
Nader 0.71% Green
Browne 0.50% Libertarian
Phillips 0.19% Constitution
Perot 18.91% Independent
Marrou 0.28% Libertarian
Gritz 0.10% Populist
Fulani 0.07% New Alliance
[Phillips 0.04%] 7th place, including him since the CP is still active
Ron Paul, “I’m endorsing Chuck Baldwin” is the big loser here.
The CP Party went from 0.12% of the vote in 2004, to a whopping 0.14% of the vote in 2008.
I think Baldwin was on track to beat Peroutka’s results even before the Ron Paul endorsement. But if you were to speculate we was only going to match it, then the “Ron Paul Effect” shot him up to an additional 0.02%….WAY TO GO RON PAUL.
Guys lets face it, if you are young and new to the LP, your campaigning against your own candidate in Bob Barr, did nothing except harm.
Snubgate was an absurdity, and those who said so have been vindicated today. I said at the time, far and wide, by the way, on dozens of websites…that the problem with Ron Paul’s support, is it was WORTHLESS.
He didn’t bring in any additional support, not in terms of manpower, not in terms of donations, and as we see today, not in terms of votes.
He was running an out and out idiotic campaign, and the only thing surprising is the very intelligent people (and I mean that sincerely) in some places, including this site, didn’t quite grasp that Bob Barr was right about Ron Paul…he was in fact, casting his support into the winds.
But lets be honest, even if Bob Barr had gotten an early Ron Paul endorsement, he might have edged out Nader, maybe a .6% total.
Still, thats exactly what I want to see, I’m a realist. The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.
Lets rally behind the nominee next time, whomever he or she may be. Lets not sabotage our own candidate, as we did with Harry Browne’s second campaign, as we just did with Barr. Intra-family fighting is silliness, there are better fights to fight.
Barr (Libertarian) 483,675
Thatâ€™s also less than half a percent.
97% of the vote has been counted. Barr might break 500k, but not likely.
Well Nader is still less than 685K but according to most election maps both Oregon and Washington still have a fair number of votes to count so I hope he gets over that number.
According to CNN, “over a million votes” Barr failed to break 500,000.
Barr (Libertarian) 483,675
That’s also less than half a percent.
has a thread saying that Nader stole one electoral vote from Obama in Nebraska. I’m not upset, as Obama won more than enough, and I know you Naderites are already upset enough already without me rubbing it in too much, but I thought I would mention it. Also, Democratic Underground is complaining about independents spoiling a state senate race in New Hampshire and a US House race (Bachman) in Minnesota. Barkley may well be a spoiler getting Norm Coleman back in the Senate if Franken doesn’t hold his narrow lead, and it looks like Krikorian was also a spoiler, getting his arch-enemy Genocide denier Schmidt back in. As for Sheehan, she did the best thing by running against Pelosi. She couldn’t win a state legislative race either, and got more attention against Pelosi, who is the most guilty Democrat.
We’ll have to see if Nader breaks 685,000 votes because with 90% in Nader is at 610,000.
Also, Sharon Harris emailed us that Marshall Fritz died. RIP
We must never forget that Sean Haugh, national LP political director, tried to BURN valid PETITIONS, a CRIMINAL ACT in Massachusetts on June 27, 2008
I understand that there is “Great Symbolism” in running against Pelosi, but I agree with Laine: if Sheehan wants to help build a movement she should start out in the state legislature and work her way up. Celebrity candidates are often drawn to federal office where the national media coverage is nice but often irrelevant to local politics. When they lose it takes some of the glimmer off of the idea of “name recognition”.
10 @ 8
Yes, I saw that.
was in response to
the independent left needs a new leader.
God no! Sheehan may have a group of empathetic followers but she does not have Nader’s track record of experience; Nader is the only independent left candidate with a high level of experience outside of McKinney and Gravel.
Sheehan will only be a viable candidate if she runs for office as a state legislator, gets some experience behind her and then maybe she could become a leader in the electoral arena against the Democrats.
Sheehan hit 17% at this point, but she topped the Republican, who only pulled 9% of the vote. The Libertarian got 2%
All around I am depressed about the performance of third parties in this election. I put a lot of effort in to campaiging for Nader in Alaska, I worked on the streets collecting signatures so he would make the state ballot , I talked with family and friends and attempted to create some support for Nader.
Nader’s vote total may barely reach his 1996 total but overall that is pathetic. I was honestly hoping Nader would hit at least a million but now he may just hit 700,000 at the best. His California showing has been underwhelming to say the least. I say this as a genuine supporter of Nader but the independent left needs a new leader.
Browne raised a lot more.
Gee, all that money and still no better than Harry Browne. Embarrassing.
I was honestly believing for a moment there that with the Bailout that Nader and Barr would do far better. I am sorry Nader but your political capital is over; he may finish slightly better than 1996 but with much greater resources spent and a harder campaign, not impressive.
Slightly OT, but an LP candidate in Texas, William Bryan Strange, just broke 1,000,000 votes:
Looks like ballot access will be no problem for 4 years.
It looks like the Natural Law Party of Michigan will once again retain ballot status in Michigan, thanks to Ralph Nader.
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