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Predictions: Barr tops half-million, Nader posts his second best showing

I’m heading to sleep shortly, but I’ve been crunching some numbers for the last 20 minutes and it looks extremely likely that Barr will top the 500,000 vote mark so long as nothing changes significantly in the way he’s performing.

Ralph Nader also has reason to celebrate, sort of. His 1996 showing of 685,000 votes appears well within reach. The math I’m doing actually has Nader just about 700,000 when all is said and done. Once write-in votes are counted, that will go a bit higher.

And just a note… it looks like McKinney will do significantly better than Cobb in 2004. Combined, Nader and McKinney will post around 1 million far-left votes for President.

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Austin Cassidy

32 Comments

  1. Jason_Gatties Jason_Gatties November 5, 2008

    It looks like the Natural Law Party of Michigan will once again retain ballot status in Michigan, thanks to Ralph Nader.

  2. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    I was honestly believing for a moment there that with the Bailout that Nader and Barr would do far better. I am sorry Nader but your political capital is over; he may finish slightly better than 1996 but with much greater resources spent and a harder campaign, not impressive.

  3. Sean Scallon Sean Scallon November 5, 2008

    Gee, all that money and still no better than Harry Browne. Embarrassing.

  4. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    All around I am depressed about the performance of third parties in this election. I put a lot of effort in to campaiging for Nader in Alaska, I worked on the streets collecting signatures so he would make the state ballot , I talked with family and friends and attempted to create some support for Nader.

    Nader’s vote total may barely reach his 1996 total but overall that is pathetic. I was honestly hoping Nader would hit at least a million but now he may just hit 700,000 at the best. His California showing has been underwhelming to say the least. I say this as a genuine supporter of Nader but the independent left needs a new leader.

  5. Mike Gillis Mike Gillis November 5, 2008

    Sheehan hit 17% at this point, but she topped the Republican, who only pulled 9% of the vote. The Libertarian got 2%

  6. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    God no! Sheehan may have a group of empathetic followers but she does not have Nader’s track record of experience; Nader is the only independent left candidate with a high level of experience outside of McKinney and Gravel.

    Sheehan will only be a viable candidate if she runs for office as a state legislator, gets some experience behind her and then maybe she could become a leader in the electoral arena against the Democrats.

  7. paulie cannoli paulie cannoli November 5, 2008

    Yes, I saw that.

    Sheehan?

    was in response to

    the independent left needs a new leader.

  8. HumbleTravis HumbleTravis November 5, 2008

    I understand that there is “Great Symbolism” in running against Pelosi, but I agree with Laine: if Sheehan wants to help build a movement she should start out in the state legislature and work her way up. Celebrity candidates are often drawn to federal office where the national media coverage is nice but often irrelevant to local politics. When they lose it takes some of the glimmer off of the idea of “name recognition”.

  9. Gary Fincher Gary Fincher November 5, 2008

    We must never forget that Sean Haugh, national LP political director, tried to BURN valid PETITIONS, a CRIMINAL ACT in Massachusetts on June 27, 2008

  10. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    We’ll have to see if Nader breaks 685,000 votes because with 90% in Nader is at 610,000.

  11. Catholic Trotskyist Catholic Trotskyist November 5, 2008

    The website
    http://www.democraticunderground.com

    has a thread saying that Nader stole one electoral vote from Obama in Nebraska. I’m not upset, as Obama won more than enough, and I know you Naderites are already upset enough already without me rubbing it in too much, but I thought I would mention it. Also, Democratic Underground is complaining about independents spoiling a state senate race in New Hampshire and a US House race (Bachman) in Minnesota. Barkley may well be a spoiler getting Norm Coleman back in the Senate if Franken doesn’t hold his narrow lead, and it looks like Krikorian was also a spoiler, getting his arch-enemy Genocide denier Schmidt back in. As for Sheehan, she did the best thing by running against Pelosi. She couldn’t win a state legislative race either, and got more attention against Pelosi, who is the most guilty Democrat.

  12. Ayn R. Key Ayn R. Key November 5, 2008

    According to CNN, “over a million votes” Barr failed to break 500,000.

    Barr (Libertarian) 483,675

    That’s also less than half a percent.

  13. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    Well Nader is still less than 685K but according to most election maps both Oregon and Washington still have a fair number of votes to count so I hope he gets over that number.

  14. paulie cannoli paulie cannoli November 5, 2008

    Barr (Libertarian) 483,675

    That’s also less than half a percent.

    97% of the vote has been counted. Barr might break 500k, but not likely.

  15. rdupuy rdupuy November 5, 2008

    Ron Paul, “I’m endorsing Chuck Baldwin” is the big loser here.

    The CP Party went from 0.12% of the vote in 2004, to a whopping 0.14% of the vote in 2008.

    I think Baldwin was on track to beat Peroutka’s results even before the Ron Paul endorsement. But if you were to speculate we was only going to match it, then the “Ron Paul Effect” shot him up to an additional 0.02%….WAY TO GO RON PAUL.

    Guys lets face it, if you are young and new to the LP, your campaigning against your own candidate in Bob Barr, did nothing except harm.

    Snubgate was an absurdity, and those who said so have been vindicated today. I said at the time, far and wide, by the way, on dozens of websites…that the problem with Ron Paul’s support, is it was WORTHLESS.

    He didn’t bring in any additional support, not in terms of manpower, not in terms of donations, and as we see today, not in terms of votes.

    He was running an out and out idiotic campaign, and the only thing surprising is the very intelligent people (and I mean that sincerely) in some places, including this site, didn’t quite grasp that Bob Barr was right about Ron Paul…he was in fact, casting his support into the winds.

    But lets be honest, even if Bob Barr had gotten an early Ron Paul endorsement, he might have edged out Nader, maybe a .6% total.

    Still, thats exactly what I want to see, I’m a realist. The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.

    Lets rally behind the nominee next time, whomever he or she may be. Lets not sabotage our own candidate, as we did with Harry Browne’s second campaign, as we just did with Barr. Intra-family fighting is silliness, there are better fights to fight.

  16. paulie cannoli paulie cannoli November 5, 2008

    2008
    Nader 0.52% Independent
    Barr 0.40% Libertarian
    Baldwin 0.14% Constitution
    McKinney 0.11% Green

    2004
    Nader 0.38% Independent
    Badnarik 0.32% Libertarian
    Peroutka 0.12% Constitution
    Cobb 0.10% Green

    2000
    Nader 2.73% Green
    Buchanan 0.43% Reform
    Browne 0.36% Libertarian
    Phillips 0.11% Constitution

    1996
    Perot 8.40% Reform
    Nader 0.71% Green
    Browne 0.50% Libertarian
    Phillips 0.19% Constitution

    1992
    Perot 18.91% Independent
    Marrou 0.28% Libertarian
    Gritz 0.10% Populist
    Fulani 0.07% New Alliance
    [Phillips 0.04%] 7th place, including him since the CP is still active

    1988
    Paul 0.47%

  17. rdupuy rdupuy November 5, 2008

    p.s. in terms of having your own campaign sabotaged by family members… what can I say.

    The Green Party is being depressed every four years by having Nader run against them for the same votes. The CP party could have taken off more, except Alan Keyes managed to get them kicked off the ballot in California.

    We had people behaving very badly too, but all in all, they weren’t quite as successful at harming their own this time around. If anything the CP and Greens got whammied a bit harder.

  18. LaineRBT LaineRBT November 5, 2008

    Sadly I am starting to agree that Nader shouldn’t run anymore or that Nader should run as a Green. Overall his political fortitude is wanning, he was on 45 state ballots this year and he may just barely top his 1996 showing. Gonzalez could provide hope for the future but from what I read he looks forward to returning to a private life so I don’t anticipate him really leading the cause for those of us on the left.

    This is only my second presidential election and I am experiencing a severe case of ennui already.

  19. svf svf November 5, 2008

    [ also posted at reason… ]

    1972: unknown philosophy professor: 3,674 (0.0%) : 1 electoral vote

    1976: unknown elector for unknown philosophy professor: 172,553 (0.2%) : 0 electoral votes

    1980: unknown lawyer with wealthy running mate: 921,128 (1.1%) : 0 electoral votes

    1984: unknown party activist: 172,553 (0.2%) : 0 electoral votes

    1988: barely-known TX ex-congressman: 432,179 (0.5%) : 0 electoral votes

    1992: unknown AK state rep : 291,627 (0.3%) : 0 electoral votes

    1996: unknown writer and investment analyst : 485,798 (0.5%) : 0 electoral votes

    2000: same guy as 1996 : 384,516 (0.4%) : 0 electoral votes

    2004: unknwon software engineer : 397,265 (0.3%) : 0 electoral votes

    2008: moderately-known GA ex-congressman : 484,147 (0.4%) : 0 electoral votes

    so what have we learned?

    unknown philosophy professor + wealthy running mate for president in 2012!

  20. Trent Hill Trent Hill November 5, 2008

    Baldwin scored more votes this year than in 2004 despite not being on the ballot in the best state for the CP, California–or Pennsylvania.

  21. Trent Hill Trent Hill November 5, 2008

    Add Alan Keyes’ 29,473 votes in California to Baldwin’s national total of 173,182 and he easily breaks the record. Also, write-ins havent been counted. Baldwin will undoubtedly get about 3-5,000 write-ins.

  22. kiddleddee kiddleddee November 5, 2008

    rdupuy says: “Guys lets face it, if you are young and new to the LP, your campaigning against your own candidate in Bob Barr, did nothing except harm.The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.”

    Sorry that we unbathed povertarian radicals held onto our $2 million which we would have gladly given to Mary Ruwart, but that’s just politics I guess.

  23. svf svf November 5, 2008

    The website
    http://www.democraticunderground.com

    has a thread saying that Nader stole one electoral vote from Obama in Nebraska.

    I’m not seeing this anywhere.. I assume it was, uh, an urban legend or something?

  24. paulie cannoli paulie cannoli November 5, 2008

    @ BAN

    # lemur Says:
    November 5th, 2008 at 7:47 am

    Richard:
    Don’t forget Nebraska’s second district (Omaha) electoral vote. Latest results show McCain ahead by about 500; Nader has 1502; McKinney 292.

    Nebraska splits electoral votes by Congressional District.

  25. George Phillies George Phillies November 5, 2008

    “The LP is big enough that our presidential team should raise at least $3 million.”

    Actually, with something like 12 or 14 thousand members and a typical donation of 150 dollars –I think that is the Obama and the Paul number–you get something over 2 million, which is not far off from what we saw: Barr raised somewhat over a million, and the LNC will raise by year-end perhaps over 1.5 million.

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