Though it is focused on the 2012 presidential election, the top post on the PPP blog at the present moment is entitled: “A Third Party?” Tom Jensen writes:
Sifting through our last national poll really makes me think the time is ripe for a third party to have some success. Consider these findings:
-Independents are extremely fed up with both parties, giving Congressional Democrats a 61% disapproval rating and Congressional Republicans a 63% one.
-Beyond their general disapproval independents think both parties are too extreme ideologically. 50% think Congressional Republicans are too conservative and 49% think Congressional Democrats are too liberal compared to only 29% and 31% respectively who think those entities are ‘about right.’
-The ideological unhappiness is not exclusive to independents. 20% of Democrats think that their party is too liberal and 20% of Republicans think that their party is too conservative.
Combine the Democrats and Republicans who think their party’s too extreme with the independents who don’t like anyone and you have a pretty significant swath of the electorate.
Jensen often asks readers for suggestions, comments and feedback for future polls. This is a perfect opportunity to make the case for the inclusion of third party and independent candidates in their surveys this year: follow the link and urge Tom to follow up on his insight in the comments.
Imperial, Jensen’s analysis would likely be more correct, precise, accurate if he had a lot of poll numbers on various third party and independent candidates to provide some context and data. Urge him to include them in future polls in the comments to his post.
I think Jensen has this one wrong. The 50% and 49% thrown up there will include large proportions of the hard right and hard left who think the other party is “too X direction”.
In reality, you won’t get the strongest progressives and conservatives to cooperate with each other, both sets the most hardened partisans who would be likely to turnout. The moderates in American history generally end up alligning with one faction or the other or split. But I can’t think of any mass movement that enjoyed mass support from every group except for wars.
…………. ah !
Trouble posting comments to Poli-Tea?
The comments to the PPP blog do not appear instantaneously, they have to be approved by the admin first. Took a little while for mine to appear.
Yep, would not accept my
attempt:
besides the concept of
polling is so minor,
minor, and did I
mention, minor!
Out side of the already
previously committed
partisans, does the
general citizenry
even begin to care ???
as I am having trouble
posting with Poli – Tea
and or Jefferson D C
This is good to see.
There are now still only 5 comments on the linked PPP thread, 4 of them urging the group to include third party and indy candidates in its future polls. PPP is receptive to reader input: if you think it is important for third party and indy candidates to be included in polls, LET THEM KNOW in the comments!
If they think the Dems and Republicans are too “extreme” (they both sit pretty square in the middle, or a little to the right), then most third parties are going to be way too “extreme” for them, for having much more narrowed views.
NewFederalist // Mar 18, 2010:
” ………. I read above a “third party” would only be successful if it is “extremely moderate”. Somehow I just don’t see that happening …….”
With the demise of Natural Law Party [hitting the wall in 2004] and Reform /Deform Party [slow agonizing death spiral starting at Long Beach 2000] ……….
Absolutely…that is the GREEN Party…
the Green Party success story…
These terms like ‘moderate’ are too vague to convey any useful information. There needs to be more precision disclosing what the voters are fed up about. I suspect the anger is actually with the political system or institutions for a significant number of people. But who knows? Who dares to know?
nf, hmm, looks to me like voters are extremely fed up with non-moderation.
From what I read above a “third party” would only be successful if it is “extremely moderate”. Somehow I just don’t see that happening.
On a related note, spurred by the recent discussion at Green Change on the third party “media blackout”, I have begun an effort at Poli-Tea to pressure polling organizations to explicitly include third party and independent candidates in their public opinion surveys. The first target: Rasmussen Reports, for reasons made clear in the letter provided at this link.