Georgia Libertarian Voters Likely to Vote GOP in a Runoff

Here is a press release from Landmark Communications regarding some state-wide races in Georgia. Of interests to readers of this site, in a theoretical runoff election, Libertarian voters would vote for the Republican candidate for Governor by a 3 to 1 margin. (See paragraph four.)

(Duluth)—Despite a slight tightening in the race for governor, Republican Nathan Deal continues to lead Democrat Roy Barnes by 49 to 42 percent.  Libertarian John Monds carries 4 percent.

“Nothing has effectively changed since we last conducted a statewide survey a week ago,” said Mark Rountree, President of Landmark Communications. “Barnes’ support has increased slightly as traditional voting groups solidify. But Deal’s numbers have not moved much. The attacks on him by Barnes are not working at this point.”

FIRST BALLOT TEST ON A POTENTIAL RUNOFF VOTE: Landmark asked voters how they would vote between Deal and Barnes in the event of a runoff election. 51 percent of voters chose Deal and 43 percent chose Barnes – an 8-point margin.

Rountree said, “Libertarians decidedly come down on the side of Deal. Third party voters say they would support Deal over Barnes by a 3 to 1 margin.”

In the race for Attorney General, Republican Sam Olens leads Democrat Ken Hodges by 47 to 40 percent.

In the race for School Superintendent, Republican John Barge leads Democrat Joe Martin by 48 to 36 percent.  

Landmark Communications polled 1,686 randomly selected active voters on Tuesday, October 26. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis.  Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, a traditional number for gubernatorial year elections in Georgia. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percent.

13 thoughts on “Georgia Libertarian Voters Likely to Vote GOP in a Runoff

  1. Jeff Sexton

    Landmark is a GOP firm that has one interest and one interest only: defeating Roy Barnes at any cost.

    For the record, I know of VERY FEW Libertarians in Georgia who plan to vote for Nathan Deal against Roy Barnes, should John Monds not be in the runoff. At BEST, it is a 50/50 split for Nathan, and realistically from Libertarians I have spoken to (and I am a former State Executive Committee member), it is more likely 60/40 or MAYBE even 3 to 1 for here source go here descriptive food essay buy viagra korea cialis made in india follow science technology essay viagra maximum dose help writing personal statement https://www.fearlessfutures.org/medmall/fuck-with-viagra/10/ Buy propecia online canada levitra recommended dosage click https://classicalmandolinsociety.org/how-to-enable-right-click-on-mac-air/ go here http://mcorchestra.org/8753-pride-prejudice-essay-titles/ buy paper silver body of essay genogram paper follow link follow url example thesis title for business administration dissertation binding services leicester india viagra pills https://chanelmovingforward.com/stories/best-content-writing-sites/51/ compare and contrast argumentative thesis go site how would you describe yourself essay flagyl class of antibiotic http://sonkaucc.org/?p=metformin-youtube&mg=25 https://geneseelandlordassoc.org/category/creative-writing-major-careers/44/ Roy Barnes among Libertarians in this State.

    Mark Rountree is a GOP stooge, pure and simple.

  2. dude

    Yeah, he was kind of caustic in response to a post by someone that said internal polling by both sides show the race as a dead heat.

    Fishtail, that says more about your friends than it does the real numbers.

  3. AroundtheblockAFT

    A “balance of power” opportunity! Maybe Monds should throw his support in a runoff to
    the one who promises a seat (or more) to a qualified Libertarian on some state commission
    (oversight of state police or revenue dept. of
    something else visible and of interest). Then leverage four years on said commission into a run for state legislature.

  4. RedPhillips Post author

    Jeff, that Mark Roundtree is a Republican is no secret, but he’s not going to just make up or skew data for his own purposes. But you are conflating capital L Libertarians with people who plan to cast a vote for Monds which will likely be a much larger pool.

    As you know, I’m no capital or small l libertarian, but I plan to vote for Monds because it is the only way I have to cast a rightward protest vote since the Constitution Party isn’t on the ballot in Georgia. Then I plan to vote for Deal if there is a runoff. I’m part of that 3 to 1. Your Libertarian circle, no offense intended, is a small circle compared to the total voting pool.

  5. Doug Craig

    I have senn the cross tabs on some of the polling I posted in to the LNC a couple days agp. Kira willis was getting 24 5 of the Liberal vote but on about 8% of the Tea party vote. this was true acrooss the board for the polling for 5 of our candidates. In fact I was surpised how high we were doing wth liberal, If I had to guess it would be about 1 to 1. When there in no Libertarian i will most of the time vote GOP but that started to change two years ago with Saxby Chambliss I could not vote for him in the run offand I voted for the democrat. The GOP in Georgia is so pro war anti gay anti freedom I believe this trend will continue so it will be harder and harder to vote for the GOP

  6. MikeS

    Many Libertarian would likely stay home or vote for Deal instead of voting for a tax raising Obama Loving, Big Government Democrat. As for me, I voted for three Libertarian a few days ago, but would never consider voting for a Democrat, especially this year.

  7. dude

    Barnes got 39% of the white vote in 1998, 31% in 2002. Considering the direction of the state, I think he’ll get at least 31%.In this poll, he gets just 22.9%.

    I ran the presented results, and there was no weighting, they just those who said they were likely voters in the poll, including 25.8% blacks.

    If Barnes real white support is 30%, he’s at 46.5 vs 50.5. At 35%, Barnes leads 49.9% vs 47.1%. Early voting trends show blacks are doing o k, and if the trend continues, all the better for Barnes.

  8. dude

    I think it’s funny that Barnes is an Obama Loving, Big Government Democrat, considering Deal is the spineless former Democrat Washington welfare queen.

  9. dude

    Sure, Barnes actually cut spending by 2%). In 2002, the report says, “Roy Barnes has built a strong fiscal record in his first term in office.” It also shows that Barnes cut the property tax burden by $250 million.
    Let’s not forget who started the sales tax holiday, who cut it, who ended the Homeowner’s Tax Relief Grant program. What record does Team GOP/Sonny/Deal/Cagle have that libertarians think they’ll have a better fiscal record?

  10. dude

    Sure, (btw last post didn’t post).

    Barnes actually cut spending by 2%). In 2002, the report says, “Roy Barnes has built a strong fiscal record in his first term in office.” It also shows that Barnes cut the property tax burden by $250 million.

    Let’s not forget who started the sales tax holiday, who cut it, who ended the Homeowner’s Tax Relief Grant program. What record does Team GOP/Sonny/Deal/Cagle have that libertarians think they’ll have a better fiscal record?

  11. Red Phillips

    dude, Landmark makes very careful estimates of the potential black vote. The press release they sent out on the 8th district race explains their rationale.

    “31% in 2002. Considering the direction of the state, I think he’ll get at least 31%.”

    What “direction” are you talking about? Barnes is going to get as high as he did in 2002 because of the “direction of the state? So Georgia is getting more Democratic? If he does as well as he did in 2002, especially in this anti-Democrat climate, it will only be because of Deal’s baggage.

  12. dude

    I didn’t dispute their black turnout estimate, what I did dispute was the white support a lot of these publicly released polls claimed Barnes has. I looked at the crosstabs again, a week ago the white % was actually 22.5%, 17.7% from the one today, not the 22.9% I said earlier. I just threw in the caveat about blacks to suggest Barnes could win with less whites (he won with only 22% blacks in 1998, and they are around 26% now).

    By direction, I meant the reasons cited in my response to Paulie. And you just explained for yourself, Barnes is a good D candidate, Deal is a poor R candidate.

    If someone voted for Barnes in 2002, after his gutsy moves on the flag, why would they vote for Deal, of all Republicans? Sonny was the first GOP GA gov in 130 years after all.

    There is the possibility that the tea party inspires people that didn’t vote before so that Deal grows the white share of the vote, but I don’t think it’s really a factor in Georgia on the margin. Is there a reason I should believe differently.

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