Art Carden of Forbes wrote an article articulating the problems with voting for the two major parties. He explains that certain states will always swing one way or another, and so to send a message it would be best to find a candidate that best aligns with your views, because voting for a third party candidate is not a wasted voted.
I live in Tennessee. There is virtually no way Barack Obama will win Tennessee. Or Texas. Or any of a number of states. In the same way, there are some states (like California) that Obama is practically certain to win. Voting for Obama as a way of voting “against” the Republican is to waste a vote in a state like Tennessee or Texas. So, for that matter, is a vote for the Republican candidate in Tennessee or Texas as a way of voting “against” Obama. I expect betting markets like Intrade to put a Republican victory in Tennessee or Texas at a probability approaching certainty once the Republicans choose a candidate. I expect a similar probability of an Obama win in California.
No doubt, some will point at what happened in Florida in 2000 and say this is a terrible idea. Even in such a close election, though, a single vote wouldn’t have been decisive. Bush still would have won Florida, just by one more vote or one less. Even if you had convinced a few dozen of your friends to follow your lead, the probability that you will help swing an election is still practically zero.
Read the whole article at Forbes: Your Vote Won’t Matter. Don’t Waste It.