Gary Johnson Polling 12% in New Mexico

A survey done by Fairbanks, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates was done recently in New Mexico and found that Gary Johnson scored 12% in the Presidential race. Another 5% chose “Undecided or Others” on the poll.

This poll showed Obama winning the state with 48% and Romney with 35%.

Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson polls best amongst 18-29 year olds (18%) and males (16%). You can see the full results of the poll here.

30 thoughts on “Gary Johnson Polling 12% in New Mexico

  1. paulie

    Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson polls best amongst 18-29 year olds (18%)

    Time to start putting that info to use it and figuring out how to best leverage that.

  2. paulie

    @ facebook:

    15,000 feet (dollars) to go! Thanks to more than 300 great supporters, we are well on our way to hitting our goal with our Mt. Everest money bomb, but we’re not there yet. 9 years ago today, Gov. Johnson was on his way down from a successful summit of the world’s highest peak — 29,035 feet to the top, and 29,035 back. He set a goal and achieved it! Let’s do the same. A dollar for every foot. Three days to go!

    Go to: http://www.garyjohnson2012.com

  3. Trent Hill Post author

    Time to start figuring out how to keep those voters–as they seem to fade away over time.

  4. NewFederalist

    I have no idea who these pollsters are. I lived in New Mexico for over 12 years (including all 8 that Johnson was governor) and to me the telling part of this poll is just how far behind Romney is. New Mexico is a pretty good bellweather and if Obama is winning this easily then I have to think Root’s prognostication of a Romney landslide is likely to be wrong.

  5. Oranje Mike

    The fine folks in New Mexico know first hand the quality job GJ can do. They are watching and living in Obama’s nightmare and can’t possibly think Romney can offer any real solutions. I say, how can Gary Johnson be polling at only 12%.

    New Mexico is showing just how pitiful the voting body in this country is.

  6. Andy

    I think that it is possible that Gary Johnson could win the Libertarian Party major party status in New Mexico. He would need to get like 1% or maybe 2% or something like that to accomplish this. The Libertarian Party may need to increase it’s number of voter registrations in New Mexico a little big as well if the vote test is met.

  7. Richard Winger

    #11, Gary Johnson would need to poll 5%. Afterwards, the Libertarian Party would have about a year to increase its registration to one-third of 1%. Then it would nominate by primary in 2014.

    The Libertarian Party has never had “major party” (i.e., the ability to nominate by primary) in New Mexico before. The Green Party has had it in the past.

  8. Nick Kruse

    @1, His appearance on the Daily Show on June 5th will be a great way to tap into the youth vote. He needs to continue doing appearances like that.

  9. Nick Kruse

    I am surprised he is only at 12% in his home state. You would think more people of New Mexico would want their former Governor in the Presidency.

  10. Indy

    His appearance on the Daily Show on June 5th will be a great way to tap into the youth vote. He needs to continue doing appearances like that.

    Very true, but it takes a lot more than that.

    I am surprised he is only at 12% in his home state. You would think more people of New Mexico would want their former Governor in the Presidency.

    It’s the whole third party thing. Those numbers will keep going down unless there’s a major game change.

  11. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    Romney might pick current New Mexico governor, Susana Martinez, for VP.

    I heard radio’s Michael Medved suggest Martinez as a potential Romney pick (among others), and Wikipedia describes her as a potential Romney pick:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susana_Martinez

    Martinez has said she has no intentions of running for VP. But as Medved said, “That’s what they all say. They when they are picked, they accept.”

    If Johnson polls high in New Mexico by the time of the GOP convention, Romney might choose Martinez, thus draining Johnson’s numbers.

  12. paulie

    Given speculation that McCain picked Palin to head Barr off at the pass, that would not be too surprising.

    That didn’t turn out so great tho, so…

  13. Thane Eichenauer

    @18
    “That didn’t turn out so great tho, so…”

    That depends on what the goal of the McCain/Obama campaign was. If the goal was to prevent the Bob Barr/LP from gaining any significant mind share then I would say they accomplished their goal.

  14. Robert Capozzi

    21 gp, please elaborate.

    I would think that for L candidates, this would also not apply. I would suggest that most L prez candidates were almost entirely unknown in their home state and nationally.

    In 08, Barr’s second best result was in GA (IN being his best showing). Of course, we are talking tenths of percentage points. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Result

    Presumably, GJ name-recognition will be highest in NM. That’s a HUGE hurdle for LP candidates. I would be very surprised if GJ’s ’12 results are NOT best in NM on a percentage basis, although perhaps IN will surprise me.

    Generally, though, R/D prez candidates I think tend to do well in their home state. Gore ’00 may’ve been an outlier.

  15. zapper

    Without running major network TV advertising in NM, Gary Johnson’s eventual voting percentage in November will tumble far below the current polls. Although it may be his best state, he won’t make the 5% needed for major party status in NM.

    NM should be included as one of the first 8 target states for a real TV advertising plan. However, time is running out to get started. July and August are not the best months to begin a POTUS media campaign – summer fun has begun and people don’t pay attention. September is too late for an unknown LP POTUS candidate.

    We need to be on the air in June in the first seven plus NM.

  16. paulie

    It’s not just NM. The poll numbers will fall everywhere as the election gets closer unless something big happens.

    Maybe the Daily Show will help get something started. We can always hope.

  17. Robert Capozzi

    z, are you suggesting that vote percentage would NOT tumble IF the Zapper Plan were (somehow) adopted?

  18. zapper

    Yes, Paulie, we can always hope. We’ve been relying on hope since 1982. And it seems this will be another year when we will have to rely on hope instead of smart campaigning.

    We don’t need to rely on hope that something big will happen. We can make something big happen. We can do it ourselves. That means early investment in advertising using key states for leverage. But advertising has to be first, not last, in the planning and budgeting.

    For the LP, it’s always last. People wrongly assume that ads are expensive to produce and expensive to run and are beyond the means of an LP POTUS campaign. No one ever bothers to think about how so many very small businesses can run large numbers of ads in their local markets when they have far less in available funds for TV spots than the LP.

    The answer is early planning and smart buying.

  19. zapper

    RC, I’m not just saying it, I’m declaring it:

    If we target key states with significant advertising on major networks as I’ve outlined we can hold our polling numers up and maintain them as we approach November. We have to complete the second round of advertising in the plan and we can realize vote totals in the same ballpark.

    The wildcard will be if the ads in the key states can generate enough free media to do the same in the states we cannot afford to advertise in.

    Of course, there is no “proof” possible, unless we try.

    However, we HAVE tried what we’re doing now. Over and over and over for 30 years. We can predict the results of not advertising. We can predict the results of claiming that we do not have enough money and giving up in advance.

    The Johnson campaign has already wasted a lot of money on office space, consultants and paid staff. These things should be purchased AFTER the first round of targeted state advertising.

    It is office space, consultants, and most paid staff that should wait till later – to see if we have enough money to afford them.

    Advertise first.

  20. Fun K. Chicken

    I like the Zapper Plan. However, also take this into consideration (brought to you by LNCleaks):

    To: All Members and Alternates of the Libertarian National Committee
    From: Michael Cloud

    +++

    Request: Will you please exercise a “willing suspension of disbelief” when you read this message about Libertarian Presidential Campaigns? Will you read it with an open and receptive mind? With the working hypothesis that what I say is true?

    Second Request: Will you wait 72 hours before discussing, commenting on, or responding to what I write here about Libertarian Presidential Campaigns? Reflect on it. Mediatate on it. Ask yourself, “If it is true, then what’s the most valuable thing I can do as an LNC member? As a Libertarian Party activist?”

    +++

    What makes me an unarguable authority on Libertarian Presidential Campaigns?

    My work and my role as a key manager and fundraiser for 4 Libertarian Presidential Campaigns: 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000.

    I fundraised for and ran our 1988 Vice-Presidential effort. I launched and ran the pre-Nomination Campaigns of the 1992, 1996, and 2000 Libertarian Presidential Nominees. I was Projects Manager and Events Fundraiser for Harry Browne’s 1996 and 2000 Presidential Campaigns. I was one of the 4 decision-makers – and flak-catchers – of the 1992, 1996, and 2000 Libertarian Presidential Campaigns.

    I have first-hand experience in the realities, obstacles, land mines, and challenges that Ron Nielson and the Johnson/Gray Libertarian Presidential Campaign Team are wrestling with right now. They have my respect – and my support.

    THE 5 HARSH REALITIES OF LIBERTARIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

    1. Time. Scarce, and an ever-shrinking number of days to get the campaign work done. Today, the Johnson/Gray Libertarian Presidential Campaign Team hsa 173 days until Election Day. Tomorrow, they will have 172 days. Tuesday, November 6th is Election Day.

    2. Money. Far too little money. Campaign dollars are scarce and precious. There are NO problems faced by the campaign that cannot be radically reduced or removed with massive amounts of money. Cash, credit card donations, debit card donations, and checks by the truckload. Money hires more people to do more work. Money pays for advertising. Money pays for campaign travel, promotion, and publiicity for Gary Johnson and Jim Gray. Money won’t solve every problem, but poverty can’t solve any problem.

    3. Competent Campaign Team Members. Management and Staff. Over-achievers. Over-qualified, skilled key campaign workers – willing and able to be radically underpaid, under-appreciated, and over-worked. Fundraisers. Volunteer recruiters and managers. Advertising and marketing. Social media. Bookers. And more. This is a hard road – and I admire and appreciate those who walk it for liberty. (Fundraising can only solve 2/3 or this problem. Finding the individuals with the right stuff is an art.)

    4. Volunteers. Far too few volunteers. Libertarians who regularly donate their labor. Capitalism requires capital and labor. So does the Johnson/Gray Libertarian Presidential Ticket. Well-managed, well-trained, and well-treated Libertarian Campaign volunteers make a huge difference. That was one of the “secrets” of the 1996 and 2000 Harry Browne, Libertarian for President campaigns. Of Jon Coon’s 1994 Libertarian US Senate Campaign. Of Carla Howell’s 2000 “small government is beautiful” Libertarian US Senate campaign against Ted Kennedy. These campaigns recruited, trained, managed, nurtured, valued – AND GAVE CREDIT TO their amazing volunteers.

    5. Trade-Offs. With scarce time, money, and people to carry out the work, every campaign has to make trade-offs. And it’s NOT, “We’ll do this clearly brilliant thing instead of that obviously stupid thing.” It’s, “We have these six brilliant competing projects, but we only have enough time, money, and people to carry out one. Which one gives our campaign the most leverage, highest Return-On-Investment, or most bang for the buck?” The campaign has bright and passionate advocates for each of the 6 choices. They discuss, debate, argue, and plead their cases. Then the campaign choses one. And disappoints or bothers the supporters of the other 5 great ideas.

    A FEW COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE 5 HARSH REALITIES

    I. Gary Johnson and his campaign team will be bombarded with 60 to 150 campaign suggestions each week. That’s 1,500 to 3,750 campaign suggestions in the next 173 days.

    Many for the candidate. Most for the campaign. Some are cheap and simple. Most require time, money, campaign team work, volunteer work, and trade-offs to put into effect.

    Some will be brief suggestions. Most will be 100 to 500 word messages and notes. Some will be 2,000 to 10,000 word plans and proposals. A few are 25,000 to 50,000 word efforts to re-direct the campaign or “straighten it out.”

    Some will be given to Gary Johnson. Others to Jim Gray. Most will be sent to campaign headquarters. By email. By phone. By FedEx. By mail. Some are even delivered iin person.

    Most of the people giving these suggestions are thoughtful, knowledgeable, bright libertarians. They care. They are trying to help our Libertarian Presidential Campaign.

    * Reading and considering these recommendations takes a full-time paid staffer.
    * Properly acknowledging and answering each person who sent a recommendation takes a second full-time campaign staffer.
    * Responding costs a lot of time and money.
    * Failing to respond bothers some of the suggesters — and really irritates about 5% of them. It can cost support and contributions.
    * No matter what the campaign does, they have trade-offs. And bruised feelings. Why bruised feelings? Because even if they find a “Diamond” suggestion,
    they will disappoint or bother the other 3,749 suggesters — who didn’t get their idea adopted and implemented.

    II. Demand massively Exceeds Supply. Demand for campaign time, money, and labor. But especially for candidate appearances. Gary Johnson and Jim Gray and the campaign team will be forced to make Trade-Offs on when, where, and how long the candidates campaign in each area. Almost everyone feels shortchanged by candidate campaigning. Everone wants more.

    III. Gary Johnson, Jim Gray, Ron Nielson, and their campaign team will do the best they can — with the resources they raise. Most of us will appreciate the work they do and the efforts they make. Please help when you can. Let them know every time you “catch them doing something right.” Tell others.

    Some people will criticize what our they do, and fail to do; what they say, and fail to say; what they focus the campaign on, and what they fail to focus on. They will be damned if they do – and damned if they don’t.

    * A few Toxic individuals will criticize and condemn them, their motives, their choices, and their messages.
    Please ignore and shun and exile these vicious, toxic individuals from your life. Delete their emails. Stop going to websites or blogs that post and promote them. Ask others to ignore and shun and exile them.

    IV. Despite the fact that you are different from the other libertarians who make suggestions; despite the fact that your suggestions are clearly and obviously the best,
    the odds are that your suggestions will NOT be adopted and implemented. It’s NOT personal. The campaign is trying to make the best decisions they can with the time, money, and people that they have available. In the face of trade-offs. I speak as one who has been on the inside and outside of Libertarian Presidential campaigns.

    WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR LIBERTARIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN – AS A MEMBER OF THE LIBERTARIAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE

    1. Personally donate as much as you can TODAY to the Libertarian Party — to pay for Petition Signatures to help us achieve Ballot Status for the Libertarian Presidential Ticket. To make sure that every LP member can go to the polls on November 6th, and vote for his or her state and local LP candidates AND Gary Johnson and Jim Gray. Your generous donation today is worth 1,000 times more than anything else you can do for the Libertarian Presidential Campaign.
    Please Donate Now: https://www.lp.org/contribute

    2. Be like Dianna Visek. Volunteer. Collect petition signatures in Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts to put our Presidential Ticket on the ballot. Are you willing to volunteer to collect petition signatures to put the Gary Johnson Libertarian Presidential Ticket on the ballot in another state?
    Contact: william.redpath@lp.org

    Ballot Status! Ballot Status! Ballot Status!

    Donate or volunteer to collect petition signatures. Ask others to donate or collect petition signatures.

    Bill Redpath is doing amazing work to get our Libertarian Presidential Ticket on the Ballot in 48 to 50 states.

    Capital or labor. Your money or your life.

    Your donation or your volunteer work NOW for Libertarian Ballot Status is 1,000 times more valuable than anything else we can do for the Libertarian Party or the Johnson/Gray between now and August 31st.
    Please Donate Now: https://www.lp.org/contribute

    Thank you for giving me a fair and open-minded hearing.

    Warmly,

    Michael Cloud

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