Gallup recently did a nationwide presidential poll in which they included the Constitution Party’s Virgil Goode of Virginia, the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson of New Mexico, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein of Massachusetts. The results cannot, of course, compensate for ballot access–so the polling firm assumed that anyone they called was capable of voting for each candidate.
In the current survey, Gallup tested the support for three third-party candidates identified by name and party — Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party), Jill Stein (Green Party), and Virgil Goode (Constitution Party) — and found 1% support for each, with another 1% volunteering another third-party candidate’s name.
Ron Paul was also offered by less than .5% of respondents.
Reality is setting in.
By failing to advertise early (before summer in the election year) in targeted, small population states on major network Broadcast TV, the LP has once again missed the opportunity to use leverage and public support to earn free media a build a real POTUS campaign.
If we ever want to break through the low vote barrier, we need to take advantage of the existing US electoral system and the opportunites it offers to small parties, instead of bemoaning the difficulties it also imposes and doing nothing.
We can still hope that Gary Johnson will break the 1980 Clark vote total and match the percentage.
This is the first nationwide poll or state poll to show such a low number. Considering they didn’t narrow the results to “likely voters”, I have doubts about the efficacy of the poll.
@1
I watch Red Eye with Greg Gutfeld on Fox News (60 minutes, 5 days a week). Does that count as “major network Broadcast TV”? I just don’t see why that should be a target. If I wanted to connect with the thinking electorate I would advertise on Red Eye or The Daily Show. I don’t see why Johnson should pursue eyeballs when the brains those eyeballs are connected to still think that watching “major network Broadcast TV” is educational or entertaining.
I’m just sayin’.
#1, You think it’s all that easy? Must be great being an armchair general.
#1, chicken or egg? If every LP member could be persuaded to kick in $1,000, would the $12 million raised be enough to sufficiently advertise GJ nationwide? I’ll bet the entire campaign budget won’t be more than $2 or $3million because that’s all that can be raised from the population of “aware” Libertarians. I’d rather see solme attainable goals: double membership, double active county and local organizations, double Clark’s vote.
Single State Single Flight Saturation ad campaigns
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/12/1130968/-Bang-for-the-Buck-Index-2012-Stretching-our-contribution-dollars
@ 2,3,4,5 … The Zapper Plan was presented and covered this. This is an expert plan devised by a media professional, not an armchair general.
We can advertise enough to have a major electoral impact with this plan, using the existing electoral system, the power of the Electoral College and targeting small states.
It only takes an advertising budget beginning at $150,000 or so to begin in any given year – with 3 states – WY, ME, AK are our best targets to begin. If we have more money to start we can target more states.
Any LP POTUS or offyear party building campaign could have begun using this plan over the last 30 years – since the 1980 Clark Campaign, which did have enough money to run effectively nationwide.
The LP does not and has not had the same kind of funding since. We cannot run nationwide. We have to TARGET – by state, small states. If we had done before, if we begin in 2014, we can slowly build to where we can run nationwide.
Even the Ds and Rs get this. Thanks to @6 we can see a D party campaign expert making a similar recommendation since neither the Ds and Rs have enough money to go nationwide either:
“North Dakota Fargo, Minot 60K
Hawaii Honolulu 75K
Maine Portland, Bangor, Presque Isle 114K
New Mexico Albuquerque 115K
Nebraska Omaha, Lincoln, No. Platte 150K
Montana Missoula, Billings, Great Falls,
Butte, Helena, Glendive 154K”
For LP purposes, we would start with WY and AK, not mentioned above for strategic reasons that apply to the Ds and not to the LP. WY and AK can be begun even cheaper than any of markets on the D list.
Less than half a percent for Ron Paul? I’m not buying that. 1% seems a tad low for Johnson as well (though, personally, I’m far from sold on him).
As for advertising, I would say reach out to people who don’t normally vote and emphasize one or two key issues the D’s and R’s won’t discuss.
Ron Paul had to be volunteered by the voter.
@8 POTUS elections are about winning Electoral Votes. These are won by state. We have to target states. We cannot afford the cost of advertising to target big states. We have to target small states: WY, AK, ME to start.
@#10, Yeah, I know how Presidential elections are won. What I forgot in Civics class I re-learned in 2000. 🙂
Your idea and mine aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive; we’re both basically saying go where the big guys won’t.
10 Z: POTUS elections are about winning Electoral Votes.
me: For the Rs and Ds, yes. For Ls, maybe, but for me, not so much. Will many notice if GJ got, say, 5% in AK? My guess is no.
Unless and until the LP is competitive, it’s about “showing” nationwide. Targeting could be a good way to show, but maybe not.
“We” don’t “have to” do anything. Spare us the imperatives….
Now that the major parties have had their conventions and the talking heads are trying to drive up ratings by pretending it’s a close race in the final stretch, the blue-sky, pre-major-party-convention early polling numbers for third party candidates are vaporizing like they always do. Imagine that.
@12 RC is correct. We don’t have to do anything. We can follow the proven failed tactics of the past, do nothing, achieve nothing.
Or we can learn from those who understand marketing, advertising, PR and how to earn free media.
Gary Johnson nailed the Reddit AMA http://ow.ly/dDO1P
You realize Gallup, like the rest of them, rig their polls to suit their pre-set agenda, right?
The (usurpist, Communist) Obama White House has been threatening Gallup via the Justice Department to produce the results they want.
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