(The following was originally published in the Rapid City Journal.)
Numbers and analysis point toward a defeat for Democratic candidate Rick Weiland and a win for Republican candidate Mike Rounds in the general election for U.S. Senate this November. The presence of former U.S. Sen. Larry Pressler in the contest appears to be hurting Weiland much more than Rounds.
Pressler is / was a Republican who voted for President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and is running for a return to the Senate as an independent. Earlier this year we wondered whether Pressler would capture votes from the liberal and moderate Republican voters, while Gordon Howie, a former Republican legislator, would lock in votes from religious conservatives, leaving Rounds with a thinner base of Republican support.
The Pressler candidacy however seems to be capturing the middle that Weiland hasn’t been able to crack. Rounds might or might not reach 50 percent with Pressler and Howie in the race. Howie doesn’t affect Weiland, but Pressler does. Weiland might or might not break 35 percent.
The question then becomes: Could Pressler get more votes than Rounds if Weiland dropped out of the contest altogether and the Democratic Party didn’t replace him?