If the 2016 presidential election was held today, 37% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Clinton, while 36% would vote for Trump. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a sizable 22% would choose some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.
There is an opportunity. It is up to us to take advantage of it.
Too early to be taken seriously.
As previously discussed, that’s only when there is not an alternative that is seen as having a chance to win. For a counter-example see Ventura for Governor. The same dynamic could have applied in Perot ’92 had he not dropped out and then back in, as he was leading both Bush and Clinton in the polls initially. And it could apply in 2016 if either Trump or large segments of the Republican Party that oppose him bolt for an independent run.
Yes, this 22% could be viewed as an inclination. For this inclination to become an action, the third option has to establish broad-based credibility.
I don’t take myself too seriously, it’s just a falsifiable statement based on my own personal observations. 🙂 Figured I’d add that…
Now we just need to bring that up closer to 33%, or over.
Around a fifth of americans have been inclined to vote outside the duopoly for a while (even though a certain percent are not heavily so.) It’s probably up to around a fourth now. If it gets up around to a third, I think it starts to put into question the Democrats and Republicans legitimacy.
Historically, people often say such things a year before election day. They threaten to abandon their preferred major party, to vote third party or independent, or just stay home. But as election day approaches, most of these people drift back to the major party of their choice.
I remember saying something like this, though I believe 22% was a bit high….
The only caveat I will offer is that this would ONLY be the case if we have the standard candidates from third parties.
If we had some serious candidates bringing about some serious cash, that number would most definitely change. Bear in mind the R’s and D’s spent over $1BILLION each in 2012….
Sincerely,
Steve Scheetz