June 17th, 2016, CNN:
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson spoke with CNN’s Erin Burnett about the Orlando shooting, his position on gun control and his current bid for the White House.
Gary Johnson appears on CNN
By Krzysztof Lesiak on June 17, 2016 11:36 PM
Krzysztof Lesiak
I've been a contributor for IPR since January 2013. I consider myself to be a paleoconservative. I'm also the founder of American Third Party Report. Email me at [email protected].
This link might work better for you. http://i.imgur.com/evePKvn.png
Be Rational – I’m not missing any day to day changes or surge and then fall. There is no declining trend and there was no surge.
Some pollsters, like Qunnipiac, are below average one time and above average the next. Some, like Fox News, are consistently on the high side. The Economist/Yougov, PPP, and Reuters/Ipsos are consistently on the low side. What you’re seeing is a flurry of recent releases by pollsters with whom Johnson consistently polls below average. That’s giving you the false impression that he is on the decline when in fact he is trending even, when you compare earlier results from those pollsters.
Those three pollsters account for 9 of Johnson’s 13 lowest poll numbers. Those pollsters have always been low, even in mid June.
Here’s a chart of every poll Johnson has been in, with those three pollsters highlighted: http://imgur.com/a/rxirJ
But, I agree with you that the range Johnson is in may not last, and if he wants to break out to the upside he needs to begin advertising.
RC, I’m not quite sure what you mean by the LP not being committed to the truth.
But, you have refered more than once to Gary Johnson’s honesty in declaring that he did not have all the answers. So going from there, yes, I would like to think that honesty is part of what makes a candidate likeable, believable, viable and even electable.
OTOH, witness the probable election of Hillary Clinton whose photo could be included in a picture dictionary under the word “liar.”
br: …primary problem is having leaders at the State and National level who have no idea how to build state organizations and no idea how to reach the public to build the membership.
me: Possible. Another possibility is that the LP is not committed to truth, which actually does set us free. Undo untruth, and let truth shine through. Commit to truth, and that is attractive.
Jim, you’ve missed the detail and the changes that have already happened day by day.
Johnson had a surge just before and after the LP nomination. He has already risen and fallen back down. Two polls taken a month a month apart can come before and after the peak, missing both the rise and fall.
In campaigns, like this one, there are windows of opportunity. You have to be ready to use them. You have to understand advertising, targeting and the way media chooses who and what to cover to know where, when and how to target.
The Johnson camoaign had a chance to use the momentum. To hit the windows of opportunity as they came to build and maintain momentum in the eyes of the media and the public. They failed.
If the LP ever wants to succeed, it’s primary problem is having leaders at the State and National level who have no idea how to build state organizations and no idea how to reach the public to build the membership.
Success of the National LP is totally dependent on successful State LPs. The State LPs cannot succeed without building successful County level LP groups. They must organize to include the entire state, including every member, donor, and supporter in county meetings and outreach.
They might do better if they came up with a new slogan. “Vote for Hillary” isn’t working too well.
Darcy G Richardson – There was a The Economist/Yougov poll from 6/18 – 6/20 that had Johnson polling at 4% * in a 3 way race *. That was, by far, his lowest 3 way race showing. His next lowest 3 way race polls were at tied at 8%, one of which also was a The Economist/Yougov poll.
For whatever reason, Johnson always polls very low with The Economist/Yougov. He’s no better with PPP, and only slightly better with Reuters/Ipsos.
Johnson always polls low in those daily online Reuters polls. His 5 day rolling average peak was 6.3% on June 19th. The day earlier, June 18th, his 5 day rolling average was at his all time low of 4.9%. So that 5.1% reading on July 8th was on the low side, but within his normal range for Reuters. They’ve been doing that poll from June 10th to July 10th and Johnson is pretty much just a straight line. Here’s the link:
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/
Johnson’s last five 3 way race polls:
9% Rasmussen 7/5
11% Morning Consult 6/30 – 7/4
10% Fox News 6/26 – 6/28
8% Democracy Corp 6/23 – 6/28
8% The Economist/Yougov 6/24 – 6/27
9.2% Average of last 5 polls.
9.6% Average of all eighteen 3 way polls Johnson has been in since March.
Johnson’s last five 4 way polls:
6% Reuters/Ipsos 7/2 – 7/6
4% The Economist/Yougov 7/2 – 7/4
9% NBC News/Survey Monkey 6/27 – 7/3
8% USA Today/Suffolk 6/26 – 6/29
5% Reuters/Ipsos 6/25 – 6/29
6.4% Average of last five 4 way polls
7.2% Average of all 22 4 way polls since early May.
Johnson always polls low with Reuters/Ipsos, PPP, and The Economist/Yougov. So putting 2 Reuters and a The Economist in his last 5 will drag his recent average down. Johnson polls high with Fox News, NBC News, Morning Consult, and IBD/TIPP.
And as for Stein:
4% Reuters/Ipsos 7/2 – 7/6
3% The Economist/Yougov 7/2 – 7/4
5% NBC News/Survey Monkey 6/27 – 7/3
3% USA Today/Suffolk 6/26 – 6/29
4% Reuters/Ipsos 6/25 – 6/29
3.8% Average of last five 4 way polls
4.0% Average of all 22 4 way polls since early May.
That’s a great observation by Be Rational. Johnson is fading quickly. In fact, a recent poll by The Economist/You Guv, conducted July 2-4, shows Johnson slipping to four percent nationally — a single digit ahead of the Green Party’s Jill Stein — and tied with “someone else.”
It’s not quite a free fall, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Libertarian ticket continues to tumble in the polls as media scrutiny begins to intensify.
The initial flurry of interest is slipping slowly away. It takes a well-targeted advertising campaign, focusing on 12 targeted states in 2016: targeted, Major Network Broadcast TV Advertising could have increased the media attention, earning major network news coverage that has not yet been seen by GJ/WW.
Now the momentum and potential for increased momentum is all slipping away. It will take a major shock beyond the negatives already known about either Trump, Clinton or both to open up another opportunity in the 2016 race. But, it’s more likely at this point that any major developments will move interest by the media and the public even further from the Johnson campaign.
Windows of opportunity often close quickly in life.
Another notch lower in the polls. And media coverage continues to slip:
Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll:
In a four-way race:
Clinton 45%
Trump 34%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
… five-day polling average on July 8.
Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-gary-johnson-jill-stein/2016/07/08/id/737804/#ixzz4E2JoOAFf
steve m said: “I get the impression that the media is paying attention”
Given the content of their interviews, this is not a good thing.
Poll wise there is such variance between polls from different organizations that I like to watch how the data changes by each organization over time.
For example
Reuters/IPSOS 6/15 6% 6/22 6% 6/29 5% 7/6 6% which I would call rather flat
Economist/YouGov* 6/20 4% 6/27 8% 7/4 4% which is all over the place
IBD/TIPP* 6/5 11% 6/29 9% going down?
Fox 5/17 10% 6/8 12% 6/28 10% up then down?
So I am not willing to draw any conclusions other then Johnson is being included in more polls this time.
In the last week there has been coverage by
The Boston Globe, the SF Chronicle, The Chicago Tribune, CNBC, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Newsday, The Guardian, Pittsburg Post Gazette and many others.
Since the Libertarian convention Johnson or Johnson and Weld have had appearances on CNN’s Townhall, Real Time with Bill Maher, a CSPAN broadcast National Press Club luncheon, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.
I get the impression that the media is paying attention
Be Rational- Have you presented your ideas to the Johnson/Weld campaign team in any way other than here at IPR?
Since it’s very likely that the Debate Commission will insist on using 4 way polls to determine the 15%, to justify excluding all but the D and R nominees – and it is up to them to choose – we should be working to obtain 15% in 4-way polls.
… but We are not working to be included …
… that would require Targeted Major Network Broadcast TV advertising in key states, a strategy, an advertising plan … that should have started before the Naional Convention.
Failing that, there was no excuse not to begin in the early weeks of June.
The last effective window to begin is coming up, bracketing the D and R conventions.
Will the GJ campaing miss their last window?
*******
Doing ballot drives, getting on the ballot, accompanied by no serious campaign effort is a mistake the LP has been making for decades.
Yes, and be sure to recognize as time passes that Johnson is falling in both 3 way and 4 way polls.
In analyzing Be Rational’s remarks, and comparing with your own press, be careful to separate between 3-wya and 4-way polls.
2016 – tracking the lost opportunity:
Real Clear Politics
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Spread
RCP Average 6/15 – 7/6 — — 41.3 36.4 7.6 Clinton +4.9
Reuters/Ipsos*Reuters/Ipsos* 7/2 – 7/6 1345 RV 2.8 42 33 6 Clinton +9
Economist/YouGov*Economist/YouGov* 7/2 – 7/4 1004 RV 4.0 42 37 4 Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk*USA Today* 6/26 – 6/29 1000 LV 3.0 39 35 8 Clinton +4
PPP (D)*PPP (D)* 6/27 – 6/28 947 RV 3.2 45 41 5 Clinton +4
FOX NewsFOX News 6/26 – 6/28 1017 RV 3.0 41 36 10 Clinton +5
IBD/TIPP*IBD/TIPP* 6/24 – 6/29 837 RV 3.5 37 36 9 Clinton +1
Quinnipiac*Quinnipiac* 6/21 – 6/27 1610 RV 2.4 39 37 8 Clinton +2
Pew ResearchPew 6/15 – 6/26 1655 RV 2.7 45 36 11
As time passes … having missed our opportunity to use Electoral College leverage by targeting key states, showing an active campaign with a strategy to win, and time leverage by advertising early, to appeal to voters before they lock in their voting decisions … both of which were possible by utilizing Targeted Major Network Broadcast TV Advertising, we have failed to garner the more extensive and ongoing nationwide earned media needed to vault Gary Johnson beyond 15%
Recent polling from Real Clear Politics demonstrates the already declining numbers from earlier highs in the 10% neighborhood:
Johnson % Date:
5% 6/28
8% 6/29
4% 7/04
6% 7/06
Polling numbers continue their slow slide.
Major media opportunities are declining. Major news outlets seem to be losing interest.
No advertising.
No serious campaign effort.
No story to cover.
Nothing of interest to generate viewer interest leads to declining coverage.
Lack of advertising and declining earned media leads to falling poll numbers.
Eventually pollsters, having done their duty be tracking the campaign’s fall, will, one by one, stop including GJ.
NBC/WSJ poll — conducted June 19-23:
Clinton 39%
Trump 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 6%
We’re stuck. No sign of rising to 15%.
It’s time to roll out a strategic advertising plan to change the electoral dynamics of this race. Invest $440,000 now. Make Gary a contender with a plan to win one or more Electoral Votes and grow to 270 by November. Give the media story with a hook – a reason to cover the GJ/WW campaign.
?
? … in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll … among registered voters:
… including third-party candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) :
47% Clinton
37% Trump
7% Johnson
3% Stein
As I pointed out previously, the Johson campaign is already falling in popular support and it is now showing in the polls, because the campaign stubbornly refuses to do targeted, major network, broadcast TV advertising.
They have missed their first two windows of opportunity to do ad flights and use Electoral College and Time leverage.
There is one more window left.
This is just how the John Anderson campaign squandered their early spring and summer support in 1980. They failed to do outreach during the summertime windows and by fall it was over. They focused so much on ballot access that they forgot to actually run a campaign for President.
PLEASE … you need to start advertising NOW, during the upcoming major party convention period window. You have to target. You have to be bold and entrepreneurial.
Gary, you climed mountains, ran marathons, built a business, how about showing the world some of that gumption again.
I have outlined a 12 state plan in broad strokes. You need to invest a minimum of $440,000 now to run spots during this upcoming window.
Please help the LP grow.
Please make the best possible Johnson / Weld campaign outreach effort.
Please advertise now.
Now the post LP convention media bump is over. It was based on the high negatives for Trump and Clinton, the fact that they’d wrapped up their own nominations, the qualifications of Johnson and Weld, the surprise factor, and the need for news.
That’s done.
The polling numbers are no longer climbing. They seem to have turned downward, but possibly just leveled off. But, GJ/WW may no longer be included. The media interest is lagging.
The Johnson campaign missed the pre-LP-convention advertising window.
They missed the post-LP-convention advertising window.
Pre-convention advertising makes the biggest impact for the dollar and post-convention ads are second best. (This is true for State LP groups as well folks.) I didn’t start commenting till after the first window had closed. Now the second window has closed, so I will include both since this is now turning into a post mortum of the lost opportunities of the campaign.
The Johnson campaign wasn’t nimble enough to make use of the second window – although we don’t even know their intentions since no one held their feet to the fire at the convention. The LP should have demanded some guarantee of outreach, and accountability for donations and spending. The campaign will be far less successful because of its lack of effective outreach advertising and continued totally opaque finances. But, perhaps outreach and advertising were never the intended use of their fundraising – they weren’t in the 2012 campaign.
The first two advertising windows were opportunities to show the media there was a plan to affect the outcome in November, to compete for and win one or more Electoral Votes, to win States, regions, and ultimately shoot for 270 electoral votes. Targeting regions, specific states and using the advantage of early advertising and repetition – the media would understand this. We would earn more of the free nationwide media coverage that is now slacking off. Lack of outreach, lack of excitement, lack of an inspirational need for funds and lack of trust will continue to have a disasterous impact on fundraising.
For the media, there needs a storyline, a reason to cover something or someone. It has to actually have a “news” element to it. The Johnson campaing has no more story to sell now.
“You exist. We covered that. You’re doing nothing, now, so where’s the news?”
The next advertising window runs from just before the R convention until just after the D convention. It is far less effective than the first two windows, but it is available. We can still make use of the targeted advertising storyline to gain nationwide earned media. The free media earned can be worth many multiples of the actual cost of the ads.
The states to be targeted remain the same. The required budget is bigger now, having missed the first two rounds.
The best states remain the same: six states in two regions: ME, NH and VT plus NM, CO and UT.
We will need a budget of at least $180,000 now in those states during the upcoming major party convention window. The money should be spent on major network broadcast TV stations in these six states: about $20,000 per state in the three New England states and $40,000 per state for NM, CO and UT.
Even better would be to add: MA with $80,000 (Boston TV is expensive but it will be noticed and effective) and RI and CT sharing $20,000 more. Overlapping markets in New England will make this very powerful.
Turning this into a truly believable blitz would include WA and OR at $40,000 each and ultimately another $80,000 in CA omitting LA.
A commitment of $180 for this window at a minimum, or at least $440,000 for a 12 state blitz, is a much better investment of the money you’re raising than holding out to pay your salaries through the summer and fall.
Be bold. Where is that entrepreneurial spirit?
This is the last chance the Johnson/Weld will have to use time leverage along with Electoral Vote targeting leverage in time to win earned media coverage early enough to generate support over 15% in polls for the debates.
After the D and R conventions, the storyline will shift to Trump and Hillary, unless the media can see an ACTIVE PLAN to actually affect the outcome of this election, win one or more electoral votes and more as we move toward the actual voting.
Give the media a reason to cover you.
Give the public a reason to listen and not waste their vote.
Give donors a reason to donate.
Start the media blitz in these 12 targeted states now.
Obviously I didn’t see Johnson/Weld stuff in February. Never said it was February and never said anything about Weld, who didn’t get involved for another two+ months.
The email notification from the Johnson campaign saying the official campaign store was now open was dated March 9th.
http://imgur.com/NFIeCIL
Did that link from the Johnson campaign go to garysgear at the time? I don’t remember. But garysgear says it carries official Gary Johnson 2016 campaign gear. It says purchases directly benefit the Johnson campaign. It says it is paid for by Gary Johnson 2016. In older links it says it is the official campaign store. And as recently as early May, the Gary Johnson facebook page was promoting garysgear as the official campaign store.
You saw Johnson/Weld stuff in February? No.
GarysGear is not the campaign. It is CAPITALISM IN ACTION.
Ditto the LNC stuff is good, but not the campaign.
Which of these geniuses just said that machine guns are illegal in the United States?
Andy per your question June 20, 2016 at 11:30
The LNC reported raising $357,510.19 in May 2016 with cash on hand at the end of May of $407,289.00 and debt of $4388.22
in comparison the LNC raised $130,453.32 in May 2012 with cash on hand at the end of May of $236,599.10 and debt of $24695.75
I don’t know where this stuff about the GJ campaign not being organized before the convention is coming from.
They’ve been hitting their email list for donations since the beginning of January.
They started looking to recruit delegates in February.
Merchandise (bumper stickers, t-shirts, yard signs, etc.) have been available since early March. Also, the GJ campaign in 2012 told state coordinators to recover lawn signs after the election and to save extra materials, like bumper stickers, for this run. So there ought to be a cache of materials already distributed throughout the country, although anything prominently marked “2012” has limited value.
By the end of March they began putting out videos on youtube.
They got in touch with me at the beginning of May looking for the contact info of delegates from my state, and I know I wasn’t the only state they looked for. What they did with that info, I couldn’t say.
So they (maybe) don’t have ads ready to run. It wouldn’t shock me if they have them and are just trying to milk the free post-convention advertising a little longer before they deploy them.
br: They are supposed to be edgy, bold, daring, risk taking along with being professional and reasonable.
me: 100% agreed.
BR: There are likely to be many more surprises and twists in this race. (For example: I think the chances of Trump NOT being nominated are up to 40% and climbing.)
me: Agreed, but 40% may be high. At this point, I guess I’m hoping DJT stays in the race, since he helps J/W and possibly destroys the GOP. OTOH, he might somehow win, which may not be a survivable event.
br: But we should still be planning to take the known opportunities as they come and to use proven methods, even while staying alert to change and responding quickly as necessary.
me: Agreed. As yet, you’ve not “proven” that the BRP works, though. I look forward to your laying it out comprehensively so we can actually assess it.
BR, touche’! Old habits die hard!
Yes, the practicalities of a microscopic party of cult challengers did need a year to get ready. When I was still challenging the cult myself, I thought President’s Day might have been better, but as I recall, GP and others rightfully noted that weather is a problem then.
It’s incredibly difficult to run for prez, especially as an L. The resources and talent are slim; the ideological millstone of extreme, literal NAPsterism is a giant kick-me sign, replete with fringy quotes through the ages and in the platform; marshalling resources among the cat herd is challenging to say the least.
No doubt about it. Tough job — a lost cause in so many ways.
It could be that GJ should not be doing all the media work he’s doing. Perhaps he should go all Badnarik, rip up his drivers license, and drive around UT, CO, and NM campaigning door to door. It is possible that THIS would be the optimal strategy, though I doubt it.
Nielsen made 3 mistakes today, and he’ll make 3 more tomorrow. That’s to be expected. Maybe GJ should fire him and hire GP. Who fucking knows which is the right move, really?
At some point, there is always a leap of faith. Use your best judgment, accept whatever comes, do one’s best, and maybe learn something on the way.
Neurotically second-guessing probably doesn’t make it any better. Offer support and constructive feedback, or be like Andy and skulk off, muttering about the CFR and false flags. And, hey, maybe he’s right!!! Maybe we should all sign up for AndyLand, his Libertarian Zone.
Que sera.
“As a practical matter, Be Rational, a well-targeted FB campaign is not expensive, and is seen by the people who count. Delegates. Ditto, well in advance of the convention, send the delegates a bumper sticker and a professional brochure.” – George Phillies
*****
I agree they should have done these things and more in advance. They should have been preparing advertising and a plan for targeting. They should have anticipated winning the nomination and been prepared to hit the ground running. Professionalism was one of their main selling points, and now they should be delivering.
Yes, RC, I understand all the arguments about being cautious, give them time, be ready to reassess and change, but it’s also a Presidential campaign, not a business investment. They are supposed to be edgy, bold, daring, risk taking along with being professional and reasonable.
There are likely to be many more surprises and twists in this race. (For example: I think the chances of Trump NOT being nominated are up to 40% and climbing.) But we should still be planning to take the known opportunities as they come and to use proven methods, even while staying alert to change and responding quickly as necessary.
Failure to plan before the nomination for the campaign to follow after the nomination is one of the major failures of LP campaigns historically. It’s the reason the LP used to nominate it’s POTUS candidate in September of the year before the election.
This failure is one of the main criticisms now of the Trump campaign.
Planning for the campaign ahead is not pie-in-the-sky, but measuring for the WH drapes would be. Seems you still cling to some of your old Rothbardian exteme hyperbole when it suits you.
btw, it looked to me that volunteers WERE being organized on FB pre-convention. Their posts were in my feed for months prior to the convention.
I got the sense that Andy Craig was instrumental in that effort. He seems like a sharp fella, regardless, and I suspect whatever he does for the effort will be well done.
gp: ignoramus Capozzi notwithstanding.
me: Oh, yes, I definitely have my moments of ignorance. I definitely could never figure out why you narced to the FEC, for ex. Your “I had no options” plea seemed obviously incorrect, but you never cared to elaborate, as I recall.
I’ve heard confession is good for the soul! 😉 Perhaps it was just a moment of ignorance on your part as well. Surely you agree with Shakespeare that to err is human; to forgive, divine.
It would be helpful to know what we’re forgiving is all. 😉
“2-3 weeks ago, they’d just won the nomination. It would have been a miracle if they HAD run ads in that timeframe.” No, it would have been competent.
Part of this is starting reasonably in advance, so that post-convention events are not ad hoc.
As a practical matter, Be Rational, a well-targeted FB campaign is not expensive, and is seen by the people who count. Delegates. Ditto, well in advance of the convention, send the delegates a bumper sticker and a professional brochure.
Be Rational: “Ready to go with a logo, lawn signs, and bumper stickers,”
Have you seen any of these? I could have missed them, but they are not in evidence.
“All these means of organizing and motivating volunteers should also have been in place, should be organized early in a campaign – ahead of nominations…” In fact, this is an effective way of improving your outcomes at the convention, ignoramus Capozzi notwithstanding.
br: they had enough money in hand at the end of May before the convention
me: In your pseudonymous opinion. Apparently Team GJ felt otherwise. By all indications, they have more information than you or I do.
If the BRP is so good, why not write it up and share it with the community, rather than staging short guerilla attacks on IPR with mere innuendo and little-to-no data?
br: All these means of organizing and motivating volunteers should also have been in place, should be organized early in a campaign – ahead of nominations…
me: Yet ANOTHER assertion with no support. By all indications, it took all resources available to win the nomination. He barely won on the second ballot, and he probably knew the NAP dogmatists would do everything possible to block him, asking gotcha questions about history and other ways for him to trip on the plumbline OR sound like a knuckledragger to the rest of America.
Diverting resources pre-nomination would be like measuring the drapes in the White House now for when GJ moves in next January.
Diverting resources to pie-in-the-sky hypothetical futures is often a great way to fail in the present.
To be more clear, the FEC reports show they had enough money in hand at the end of May before the convention, in time to come out in full swing witn their first flight of advertising following the nomination, even if they couldn’t use the pre-convention window.
As it turns out, the FEC reports show that Johnson/Weld had plenty of money on hand to start advertising even before the convention.
They just don’t know how to run a proper campaign.
An important key to advertising is targeting and leverage. It is used for businesses and new products all the time – in addition to it’s applicability to political campaigns. My plan is only how to use these common techniques for the LP and GJ/WW 2016 in particular.
br: Those who plan can control the future, those who wait for it to come are controlled by others.
me: Everyone “plans.” The question is whether the means and the plan match up. If they don’t, then the plan is a dream, not a plan.
There is something also to be said for spontaneity. Excessive scheming leads to missing great opportunity as it presents itself. If one is obsessed with last week’s plan but conditions have changed, maybe it’s time for a course correction!
Despite the fact that I find the prospect of President Trump deeply dysfunctional, by all indications he’s been winging it all along. I don’t approved of his tactics, but his spontaneousness has been attractive to his supporters. Even if he is crushed by HRC, he accomplished a rather amazing feat in securing the R nomination. (He clearly has gone overboard in recent weeks, probably because he megolomania has spun out of control.)
br: In reality, they had already missed an even more valuable advertising window – the period from tax day through the LP convention – but they had ***little money and weren’t sure of winning,***
me: NOW you are getting it!!! 😉
My guess is Nielsen DOES have a plan, or probably several, depending on fundraising goes, but hopefully the wisdom to recognize that “plans” almost never work out as did on the chalkboard. The plan has the disadvantage of not being the Be Rational Plan, where GJ and WW fork over/lend their capital because a pseudonym says they should, because s/he has a wild hare about winning states and winning the House delegation vote. And yet BR provides no real support for an admittedly interesting notion.
How many more weeks you figure before that bone you’re gnawing on is pulverized? 😉
“Ready to go with a logo, lawn signs, and bumper stickers, and a scheme for contacting volunteers, would also be good.” George Phillies
All these means of organizing and motivating volunteers should also have been in place, should be organized early in a campaign – ahead of nominations – and should be continually prepared by National, State and County LP groups.
I wasn’t aware that the Johnson campaign had none of these up and running. We’re they not set up to run fundraising either? That’s even worse, it true.
This time Be Rational has a good point. Ready to go with a logo, lawn signs, and bumper stickers, and a scheme for contacting volunteers, would also be good.
Actually, it’s foolish not to understand the time factor in campaigns, seasons, polling time frames, how trends move through a population over time.
Those who plan can control the future, those who wait for it to come are controlled by others.
In short, you miss the bus, it doesn’t matter if you’re a tortoise or a hare, the bus moves faster and it’s gone. Even if there is another bus, it will come later and you will still be behind. Yes, maybe an express bus will come along, but maybe none at all.
They won the nomination more than 3 weeks ago. There was a window that was open at that time, it began with their nomination. It ends with the onset of summer vacation season. We cannot change the summer season. It exists. The calendar exists. That advertising period of opportunity was essential, it is now closing. The bus has gone.
With voters, you need to catch them as early as possible, before their minds become set, when they are looking around, when changes require them to shift loyalties – such as when their primary candidate drops out. If you wait until fall to reach out, it’s too late to change many minds that you could have reached earlier. Yeah, another bus we are missing day by day.
The next one comes just before, during and after the D & R conventions. It will be less effective to run ads having missed the first window, but it amounts to a second later and slower bus.
Thinking of it another way: They had a chance to make an investment in the currency of elections – public support and free media – by buying ads during this first period. They had the chance to use the leverage that comes from the Electoral College allowing state by state victories and time leverage. They missed this window. They could have earned compound interest from the free media and then invested more during the upcoming convention window. If you start investing later in life, it’s much harder to catch up to the person who started earlier.
In reality, they had already missed an even more valuable advertising window – the period from tax day through the LP convention – but they had little money and weren’t sure of winning, so it would have taken great fortitude and media insight to have taken advantage of that one. It has been used very rarely, but with amazing success. It’s an opportunity that state LP leaders and national LP leaders should use, since LP campaigns are seldom professional enough to be geared up or even aware of such things.
Consider this a pre-mortum instead of a post-mortum analysis. Perhaps someone who will be running a future campaign at the state level or the next LP POTUS campaign will learn enough to do things better in the future. Watch and learn as another campaign misses its critical opportunities – opportunities that it had the money and time to use, but wrong decisions were made or the wrong people were in charge.
Well, you certainly won’t give that bone up, will you? 😉
You say that on a day when J/W will be on CNN for an hour-long townhall.
You seem to have a sequencing problem: 2-3 weeks ago, they’d just won the nomination. It would have been a miracle if they HAD run ads in that timeframe.
The Lessons: Tortoise and the hare and Patience is a virtue. And basic timelines seem to not be your strong suit. Is this some kind of odd anticipatory psychological ploy so you can say I told you so in November? In your mind, ads would have been produced even before the convention!!!!
No need to answer me. Just ponder how foolish you sound now.
The nationwide coverage Johnson is receiving NOW is a result of his nomination with Weld, the unpopularity of Trump and Clinton, and the surprise factor of getting some higher than expect poll numbers.
That coverage and the gain in the polls has leveled off and begun to decline quite noticably – over the last week or so. We are presently transitioning an inflection point into a downturn (even if YOU can’t detect it, others can).
Johnson/Weld needed their advertising to start about 2 weeks ago, running for about 3 weeks.
The first flight of ads, even if in just the first 6 states, would generate interest in a strategy that could affect the outcome in November. (Of course, the strategy actually has to be carried out to change the outcome in Nov.) That would generate more nationwide media coverage during the upcoming pre D & R convention cycle. In addition, it would actually raise support in the targeted states – that is, the strategy works – and generate coverage in those states, raising their profile there even more.
By not running ads in this cycle, the downward trend will hit and carry on to the D & R conventions.
The campaign seems to be following the “hope for a miracle” strategy.
Be Rational “for May 2016 Johnson raised from individual contributors $350,561.42”
More relevant is the $175,500 cash on hand. But that was before he got the nomination. There is likely much more than that, now.
A fourth Morning Consult poll (June 15 – 20) just came out that, for the fourth time in a row, had Johnson at 10%.
But, there is some indication of positive movement in the polls, if you’re willing to compare results from different polling companies and look below the top line:
From the March 21st Monmouth University poll (11% overall, did not include Stein):
9% Favorable
15% Unfavorable
76% No Opinion
From the June 21st CNN poll (9% overall, included Stein):
18% Favorable
16% Unfavorable
65% Never Heard Of + No Opinion
The amount of press coverage he’s had since the convention meant he didn’t need to run ads, but that does seem to be slowing down a bit.
I’d say Nielson’s agency has done some great work. This one…eh. The sideways TV in 12 was outstanding.
Panic almost always produces drek.
“btw, what if the ads are not compelling? Does it matter?” -RC
Of course quaility counts. GJ needs to sign on someone creative to make his spots.
I’ll have to watch the new YouTube spot later.
Funny, it looks like THIS is the first GJ ad in this cycle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khDKhQZBWiQ
I give it a B/B-. I thought some of the 12 ads were stronger. I’m not sure the messaging in this one grabs people. Eliminate the income tax, and we get gobs of jobs.
Production values are passable, but again not inspired. It has a rushed, hasty feel to it, and an eery set.
GJ’s performance was better…I give it an A-.
BR, here’s a thought: Why not set up the Be Rational SuperPac. In this way, you can put into practice your profound sense of urgency for early advertising.
btw, what if the ads are not compelling? Does it matter?
In Utah “… when respondents were offered Gary Johnson in addition to “other,” support for Trump and Clinton dropped to 29% and 26%, respectively, 16% chose Johnson, and 29% other, for a total of 45% who claim they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Clinton … ”
“If Utah’s six electoral votes go to Johnson, that alone could deprive both Trump and Clinton of the 270 required to win … If Johnson managed to win a couple of other states … a House election would be much more likely.”
In a House vote for President … “it’s entirely possible that a two-term Republican governor will be their first choice by then.”
“Gary Johnson is an underdog, but he’s no fringe candidate or spoiler. He could be the next President of the United States.”
Read more: http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/how-gary-johnson-could-win-the-white-house/#ixzz4CEbDYrfZ
Follow us: @TheLibRepublic on Twitter
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The way to get there is by targeting key states NOW with major network broadcast TV advertising. It’s called leverage.
The twists and turns and political possibilities will keep the media excited to talk about Gary nationwide … IF the Johnson campaign gives them a reason to continue their coverage.
The bright side of this TV debate is that there is another candidate with no TV advertising…Trump.
BR, you should probably write a strategy memo including data and support for your theory. Perhaps an editor here will post it, despite your pseudonym.
You should include proof of the impact of early advertising in small states, as well as documentation of fundraising in those races. Additionally, include polling data on those L candidates’s competition.
Hectoring me to drink your Kool Aid, esp when I’ve already told you I like the flavor, seems like a waste of time.
The fundraising numbers posted by steve m above, for GJ for May, show that he has plenty of funds on hand to begin. Psst experience in small states (such as ME, NH, and VT) for LP advertising has demonstrated that amounts less than $10,000 per state over one to three weeks can have a serious impact.
The GJ campaign has been known to respond to IPR in the past, so it is not unlikely that someone in their campaign is listening.
They will do what they will. Because of their hidden expenditures from 2012, lack of transparency and lack of outreach, I expect no different this time. Many potential big donors feel the same.
If they carry on as before, the time will pass. The opportunity will pass. The media will tire of the lack of action, there will be no more reason for coverage.
The campaign has to invest in the future by advertising NOW.
**********
For state LP groups the same principle applies in Gubernatorial years. If you want media interest in your nominee, advertise early, BEFORE the nominating convention, on major network broadcast TV. Best to hit each media market in the state if possible, but not necessary to hit every station.
BR, stipulating that IPR comments are inconsequential, you remind me of a dog with a bone. There’s nothing left there except a raw bone, but you are going to chew the bone into dust, dag gummitt!
Wishing for what may have been strikes me as unhealthy and deeply dysfunctional. By all indications, there were no funds for a BRP in 6 low pop states. Even if there were, given random sampling, one week of ads in 6 low-pop states probably would not have changed the outcome of recent polls. Best case, maybe the needle would have been moved maybe 1 point, IF the ads were awesome, and the media buys plentiful and well selected.
If, if, if, if, makes for a weak case.
There’s also the delay factor…see an ad, and millions decide in the moment: Hey, I’m gonna vote for this guy I’ve never heard of before! Sorry. Silly. Most of GJ poll selectors probably don’t know who he is…he’s just not DJT or HRC.
Yes, to the extent the media wants to look at GJ’s (BRP) strategy, they MIGHT find that interesting, as I do. But the truth is — at THIS point — GJ is getting unprecedented coverage, far more than his numbers deserve. The media like the GJ narrative already, and they are covering him as hard news. That to me is amazing!
We don’t know what the fundraising pitch is. The BRP might be better than what they are pitching to the high-dollar crowd, so we have no basis for comparison.
Keep lobbying IPR with your pseudonym and no obvious portfolio. It may make you feel good, but don’t kid yourself.
RC, You are deliberately missing the point. I’m sure you are not as obtuse as your Spakane comment would indicate.
Had GJ begun to target the first 6 states last week through this week, he would have generated additional interest in those states and increased support that would show up in those states. This would demonstrate to the media nationwide that he has a plan to win electoral votes – leverage in action …
… having a plan that has been put into action, which would bring him more media coverage in the following weeks prior to the D and R conventions, would bring him up in the polls following that coverage … time leverage in action.
… the media plan makes good pr and fundrasing selling points, generates trust and raises money, free media, higher polling numbers …
It’s a win/win/win winning plan.
more….
If Team GJ had run ads last week in Spokane, it’s highly unlikely the results would have been affected.
br: As you can see from the polls posted above, there is no growth happening. The best you can say is that the polling has leveled off – which is what happens before the fall.
me: No, these few datapoints are slightly up. And, no, data has a tendency to fluctuate.
You are calling a mile race after the first 20 strides. You know better than that , I’m sure.
The reason targeting selected states works, especially being small states, and states where Johnson and Weld have some advantage, and states where the voters have a history supporting indpendents or Libertarians is that a low level of spending can have a big impact.
A big impact in a single state could change the entire complexion of the campaign. The Johnson/Weld ticket could win one or more electoral votes, or change a state from R to D or D to R. This will pique the media interest.
The media loves twists and excitement, upsets and surprises, so the media will then give GJ free nationwide earned media coverage.
During the 1988 Ron Paul campaign, I spoke with several major media news directors about getting RP coverage or interviews. They said if I could show just one state where Ron Paul was polling high enough to have an impact they would cover him.
The RP campaign wasted $50k on a single ad in the NYTimes. They could have targeted a small state for that amount, made a big impact, and leveraged free nationwide coverage worth millions. They didn’t. They got almost no coverage.
GJ 2012 also did and accomplished little.
If they follow the same plan again – as they are doing so far – they will again fail.
Jim, throwing Monmouth out for the switch from 3 to 4, this suggests a slight INCREASE in polls over time.
This should be viewed as preliminary data, but it seems contrary to BR’s contention that they will slip in the polls without advertising in Burlington, VT.
# # # #
L: We should all drop to our knees, and give thanks to these great men for blessing us mere peons with their presence!
Me: Histrionic much?! 😉
I am grateful to the Memory of MNR for all his pioneering work, even though I think he did massive net damage to the cause of liberty. The deontology, the fetuses as parasites, the all-or-nothing absolutist thinking…these dysfunctional approaches still animate so many Ls.
IOW, the attitude of gratitude need not degenerate into veneration.
There are many benefits to running ads NOW – beginning a targeted advertising plan NOW.
One important benefit is that donors don’t trust the Johnson campaign to make good use of their funds, based on the almost total lack of outreach spending in 2012 coupled with the total lack of transparency as to where the money went.
Spending on advertising NOW – and promoting it as a strategic project – and announcing the fundraising results and spending amounts (being transparent to the donors) will allow the campaign to raise far more money than they otherwise will.
Financially, the campaign can gain by spending, IF they spend on targeted Major Network Broadcast TV advertising.
As you can see from the polls posted above, there is no growth happening. The best you can say is that the polling has leveled off – which is what happens before the fall.
According to this post from the Open Thread, Johnson has raised enough money to begin a targeted advertising plan:
*********
steve m
June 21, 2016 at 03:33
“The FEC Reports for Johnson May 1st through 31 are now available.
For the 2016 http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00605568/1079473/
for May 2016 Johnson raised from individual contributors $350,561.42″
********
That’s a non sequitur for me, and feels ungrateful. GJ and WW are contributing the cause with an intense use of their time.
How dare any Libertarian fail to show the proper level of gratitude to such heroic figures! We should all drop to our knees, and give thanks to these great men for blessing us mere peons with their presence!
Weld, in particular, spent an entire two hours reading the platform, and he did so a whole two days before the convention! What a sacrifice! We’re truly blessed to have such selfless, noble leaders!
I am becoming enraged at the mere thought of anyone having the audacity to expect anything more!
robert capozzi –
Fox News included Johnson in 2 polls.
10% 5/14 – 5/17
12% 6/5 – 6/8
Morning Consult has had him three times.
10% 5/19 – 5/23
10% 6/1 – 6/4
10% 6/8 – 6/9
NBC has had him twice, both of which also included Stein.
9% 5/30 – 6/5
9% 6/6 – 6/12
And Monmouth University had him twice, but the second one also included Stein while the first did not.
11% 3/17 – 3/26
9% 6/15 – 6/19
Be Rational “However, there at least WAS money available to begin as of the national convention. They had some cash on hand and raised over $100 k at the convention. They should have raised more since then. They could start the first flight in the first 6 states for $60 k. That’s doable.”
The most recent report ends April 30. They had $14,924.28 in cash. I’m sure they have more than that, now. How much more is the question. I think Andy is right that the $100,000 went to the party, not the Johnson campaign, and that will mostly go towards ballot access.
br, have any of the pollsters included GJ for 2 or more cycles? If not, I don’t buy your characterization. This is the first round, so there’s no climbing or falling, as I see it. He comes in around 9% on average, which is pretty good.
We’ll see what the next round brings.
btw, your plan probably wouldn’t affect poll results much or at all, since it involves small populations. The sample size is nationwide. Strikes me if his average moves up to say 13% by July, that gets the media’s attention even more than now.
There are now maybe 30 vids for the media to consider. I don’t think the national media will be blown away by media buys in Bangor, ME and Spokane, WA. They might have a certain fascination with the BRP, but the BRP by itself doesn’t win elections.
Sprinting out of the gates is generally a bad idea when running the mile. You want to end stronger than you started.
You seem also obsessed with your off-the-cuff plan, btw, believing ONLY IT will deliver GJ to the adult table. Have you considered that OTHER plans MIGHT work better?
Yes, RC, it’s nice that Johnson is being included in some polls, but he’s no longer climbing and needs to take steps to do so.
Waiting is not a plan of action. The media won’t buy it. The attention will fall away.
Phillies, you are clueless. You are holding the MA LP back.
Of course organzing by town crashed and burned. First you have to set up groups in each county. Town groups are then set up where possible, but everyone has a county group for organizing, outreach, campaigns and growth.
State parties cannot grow to an effective size until they have set up county groups. National parties cannot grow to effective size without state groups.
But you have no clue about major party status or its value or county groups and why they are important. You use every justification you can for keeping your small social club instead of building a winning politcal party.
You’ve had plenty of time.
You have failed because you do not know how to organize.
*******
By now you should have major party status; an active group in every county; hundreds of active members (not just paying dues); a mailing list over 20,000 in members/donors/supporters; a minimum of $100,000 annual budget for your state LP; outreach in parades, events, and booths at public fairs, gun shows etc in every county; so much activity that there are multiple LP events happening simultaneously every week; a statewide executive director; major network TV advertising promoting the LP weeks ahead of your state conventions; 500 + attendance at Gubernatorial nominating conventions …
… and yes, it can be done, and has been done elsewhere …
but, the MA LP will continue to flounder until your controlling influence is removed and someone who wants to succeed and knows how to organize steps up to run the MA LP.
Johnson’s inclusion-in-polls list is getting pretty long!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5949.html#polls
Dear Be Clueless:
We have permanent ballot status in Massachusetts. You can register Libertarian. You can run as a Libertarian. In fact it is easier for us than for the Democrats or the Republicans. The Secretary of the Commonwealth counts our registered voters. In fact, there is no legal path in Massachusetts to get rid of ballot status.
Anyone familiar with Massachusetts governmental organization would realize that “by county” is simply crazy. We have three times had someone try to organize by town. All three efforts crashed and burned, leaving not even wreckage behind, as I explained in advance to the people who burned themselves out doing it.
We had a group that did your huge state convention thingie. Repeatedly. It more or less bankrupted the party. Then the people who wanted the title sat on control of the party while doing zero for several years, while membership crashed.
There is a long history of state parties hiring executive directors. They sank all their money into directors (sometimes offices) and none of it into doing politics.
It is characters like you who have held our party back for decades.
br: What I’m recommending to them is that they loan enough money to their campaign to kick off an advertising program.
me: I saw GJ in an interview saying he had to dig into his pocket already for a filing. He may also be paying for his flights and hotel, and being reimbursed.
Dunno. It’s just asking an awful lot for them to dig into their own pockets when they are already donating so much of their time. That’s a risk for them, and I’d say the risk probably small, but still. (Loans involve risk.)
br: The media has repeatedly asked GJ about this very subject and GJ continues to deflect and dodge, because there is no active plan inside the GJ/WW campaign at this time.
me: That’s your interpretation, and I think you are missing the point. GJ doesn’t talk much about process at all. He talks about how critical it is for him to get in the polls, but, no, he doesn’t talk about the specifics of how to do so.
Getting the gatekeeping pollsters to do so is probably not obvious. I suspect and hope staff is pitching them repeatedly to get them to include him, using other polls as evidence that GJ should be included.
It’s pretty obvious that GJ is working the national media, with an assist from WW. If you’ve run national campaigns before, you should probably contact Nielson to lay out to him how he’s missing the mark. If you are just an pseudonymous poster on an obscure website with no particular experience, just an idea, are you really surprised that he’s not hearing or paying attention to your learned counsel?
br: Lose the momentum. Fall in the polls.
me: With DJT imploding, your scenario seems less likely daily. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and as the weeks of R embarrassment tick by, hopefully GJ 16 will start to build toward critical mass.
If HRC actually gets indicted, my goodness, all bets are off!
Truth is that GJ 16 is most likely to be another single-digit event. If things break right, maybe it might be — what — a 10% event. The difference between the two is mostly up to the Rs and Ds and voters, but Team GJ can make moves that enhance the possibility of 10%. That, however, involves critical mass, which they likely don’t have yet.
Ditto for the SuperPACs, although they may be better positioned to advertise earlier, if they — experts and their donors — believe that’s the best way to go.
br: The Johnson campaign should take the challenge.
me: Of a pseudonym on IPR. OK!
br: Life is full of opportunity that requires taking risks. This is one more – perhaps the greatest chapter of his life. This opportunity will never come again for Gary Johnson. He really could turn this investment into making a serious impact on the election, carrying electoral votes, winning whole states, and even an outside chance at winning in November.
me: In process. No wine before its time. Panic almost never works, in my experience.
edit, correction: … has put into place an active plan to affect the electoral results …
RC,
If the campaign were entitled to their personal capital, I would have suggested that GJ and WW donate to their campaign. What I’m recommending to them is that they loan enough money to their campaign to kick off an advertising program.
This will help them to maintain their momentum to 15%+ in the polls by increasing their polling numbers in a handful of states and using that as leverage for earned media nationwide.
It will show the media that the campaign is serious and has put into place an active plan to effect the elctoral results in November, changing statewide outcomes, possibly winning one or more Electoral Votes – at a minimum – which will earn continuing coverage. The media has repeatedly asked GJ about this very subject and GJ continues to deflect and dodge, because there is no active plan inside the GJ/WW campaign at this time. This plan leverages a small investment NOW into much more valuable free media nationwide at a time when that coverage is critical.
If GJ cannot show a plan of action soon, the attention will slide along with his polling numbers, he will be dismissed as a summertime flash and nothing more, and finish back at 2% to 3% – yes, a high-water mark, but a wasted opportunity for the LP and for GJ/WW.
This is the guy who challenges mountains – but he’s not taking on this challenge with the tools he needs. He can take the challenge, kick this thing off and inspire donors to join him.
It will show donors the campaign is serious and trustworthy, which should increase their fundraising ability. It will alllow the campaign to keep the media attention and poll numbers growing. It will allow the campaign to stay exposed during the July conventions when it matters. It will give the campaign a real shot at polling beyond 15% and full debate participation. All of this will encourage the donations to roll in after the nominations are set for the Ds and Rs in July.
But, miss that train now and there’s no going back.
Lose the momentum. Fall in the polls. Media slowly loses interest. Attention moves elsewhere. Donations do not flow after July. Poll numbers trend further lower. No debates. No money. Opportunity knocked but was missed.
The value of early advertising on carefully targeted Major Network Broadcast TV is clear.
The Johnson campaign should take the challenge.
Start the advertising.
Fundraising based on this opportunity, and showing that they are already out there running ads, can bring in the money to keep it going and to recoup their loans.
Life is full of opportunity that requires taking risks. This is one more – perhaps the greatest chapter of his life. This opportunity will never come again for Gary Johnson. He really could turn this investment into making a serious impact on the election, carrying electoral votes, winning whole states, and even an outside chance at winning in November.
br: GJ and WW did sell themselves to the convention as the serious candidates who can bring in the money though, so they should be willing to front some cash as a loan and repay themselves later in order to get some ads running.
me: That’s a non sequitur for me, and feels ungrateful. GJ and WW are contributing the cause with an intense use of their time. Expecting them to also loan their campaign feels highly unfair to me, as if the campaign is entitled to their personal capital.
I simply don’t agree.
By all indications, they are both giving it their all. I assume they are working the fundraising angle as well. Of course there’s a delay. I would not be surprised if ads are in the works, waiting for funding critical mass.
Didn’t the $100,000 raised at the convention go to the LNC, not to Gary Johnson 2016?
This might be Gov. Johnson’s best TV appearance to date. He was concise and his speaking style is improving. However, he needs to avoid any long answers on the marijuana subject. Find a very short, 15 second answer for those questions and move on. Those who like him for that issue are already on board and those strongly opposed will not be swayed. Try to avoid the LP stereotypes.
Just my humble opinion.
Yes, RC, if there were no money available and they won’t loan any money to the campaign themselves, then there would be little they could do. Political TV ads are generally run on a pre-paid basis.
GJ and WW did sell themselves to the convention as the serious candidates who can bring in the money though, so they should be willing to front some cash as a loan and repay themselves later in order to get some ads running. Time value of interest generated by advertising in this case is like compounding of interest from savings in a bank.
However, there at least WAS money available to begin as of the national convention. They had some cash on hand and raised over $100 k at the convention. They should have raised more since then. They could start the first flight in the first 6 states for $60 k. That’s doable.
Running ads brings more media attention AND makes donors more likely to donate: it gives donors a reason to donate, and it shows donors they can trust their money will actually be used on outreach so it won’t be wasted.
The GJ/WW campaign should be able to raise more than they spend while cranking up the ad buys if they do their fundraising properly.
more…
Your “reality” might be real for you, of course, but universally accepted realities require more datapoints for others to nod in agreement.
BR, could be. Expecting GJ or WW to fund the campaign is WAY too much to expect. If the campaign doesn’t have the gwap, they don’t. GJ’s been absolutely SAVAGED over his 12 campaign debt. And I would think direct costs like ad buys aren’t extended terms.
Wishing funds into the coffers generally doesn’t work, though I do believe in miracles!
Unlike 80, there’s built-in interest in J/W…it’s called Trump and Clinton. They can afford to ferry GJ between NY and DC and hopefully a decent hotel for the time-being, working the media, while the Rs implode and we wait hoping that HRC gets justice for a lifetime of corruption.
I have to assume they are doing the best they can with the resources they have.
I’d think that if anyone can do the BR Plan or anything like it, it’s the SuperPACs, at least in the coming weeks.
In my experience, whining only creates heat, and little to no light.
RC,
Unfortunately, the GJ/WW campaign has little time to take advantage of their early attention, keep the momentum going and move forward. This opportunity in time will not be available later.
The Anderson campaign faced a similar problem in 1980. They had good momentum early, but during the summer and early fall, faced with ballot access difficulties, the campaign essentially disappeared from the public mind. When the fall campaign season came, their publicity momentum had dried up, their support leveled off, and they never got it back.
Our time is NOW. This is reality.
When you miss the train at the station, it won’t come back for you.
Sorry, GP. but you have proved consistently that you know nothing about organizing at any level. If you did, you’d have permanent ballot status, an active group in every county – meeting monthly, at least 30 or 40 local groups, a state LP budget over $100k per year, an executive director, and 500 plus at your election year state LP conventions.
It would take at most 4 years starting with 3 members to reach that level in MA. But you have no clue.
There is a well-organized Massachusetts ballot access drive. It appears on track to reach its target goal on time.
Massachusetts does not in most of the Commonwealth have County government or county political offices, so organizing by county makes no sense, even if you are not familiar with the interesting state and federal campaign finance law issues with having affiliates rather than independent local groups, of which there are several. That’s before you get to the county that has three geographically separated areas.
On the bright side, “Be Rational” is being consistent, namely he consistently doesn’t know what he is talking about.
All this strategy advice is interesting speculation. I wonder what the actual strategy is?
It appears to be mostly something like:
Free-media blitz June, pitch pollsters to include GJ, raise money, and gather Super-PACs until they reach critical mass, and then assess options. I also think I saw somewhere that the campaign has or will kick in for ballot access.
That seems reasonable, as going off half-cocked and in a panic is generally not a good idea. I assume that Nielsen would LOVE to be advertising, as that’s how he makes his money.
Cooler heads prevail.
Jim,
Targeting based on reaching Hispanic American voters may be a good idea. I would certainly recommend more direct targeting by running ads in Spanish on Spanish TV and radio prior to the election.
However, our first goal is to get support that will show up in polling targeted areas that will generate additional earned media coverage. We only have to be higher in polling in a few states, with a threat to tip the Electoral Vote or possibly win one or more EVs to generate free nationwide media coverage. Johnson and Weld need something more to CONTINUE to be interesting to the media. We need the earned media, nationwide, to get over 15% in the polls. So, we need to leverage our limited resources.
Spreading our money over a large regional area or parts of large states will not give us the leverage we need. We will not have enough money to affect the polls in those states or to threaten to change the outcome.
It would be a total waste to advertise in expensive major markets such as LA, NY, DC, Chi, etc without millions of dollars to spend in each of those cities. Running one or two ads in one of those locations to influence the media would have a negative value
We can leverage our money by targeting small states where a small amount of money can by a larger number of ad spots and reach a significant portion of the population of the entire state. This is especially valuable in states that have a history of voting for Indpendents and Third Parties – such as ME, NH and VT. Plus, in ME it is possible to win a single electoral vote by winning the northern Congressional District that Perot nearly carried. ME has elected Independent governors and has given great support to Greens and Libertarians in past elections. VT has elected third party and independent candidates repeatedly and NH has a strong Libertarian streak. They are also in Weld territory, where Governor Weld is better known and has a good reputation among a larger segment of the population. Since these states are contiguous, with overlapping media markets, they can by targeted efficiently. There is also overlap with upstate NY, which should also be good for us, and overlap with MA, which is also good for the LP and Weld territory, and part of the third group to target.
NM is Johnson territory, UT has given a strong indication of favoring Johnson and being strongly anti- Trump and ant- Hillary. CO is also good for Johnson and as a state with legalized marijuana gives us an edge. Each of these states gives us a chance to affect the outcome and generate free media.
We need to use leverage to get the most of our limited media dollars. We can get that by starting in these states. We lift the expensive, large media centers with a much smaller investment in more distant locations. There is also timing leverage. Money spent early, at appropriate times – like NOW – and durning the upcoming convention weeks – produces greater leverage for the earned media we need before the polling that will determine the 15% for the debates.
No, nbc (funny, but not NBC), “Network” means “network affiliate stations” as opposed to cable or local stations that are generally less effective for our purposes.
If I was proposing nationwide advertising, which is far too costly at the present time for the Johnson campaign or any of the Johnson Super PACs, then I would have said, “Nationwide, Network Broadcast TV.
“Network Broadcast TV” is on in all 50 states. What you mean is just “broadcast television” if you’re doing local ad buys.
“Of course, all of this is predicated on there being enough money and we have no idea where the Johnson campaign is with that.” – Jim
And isn’t THAT a shame?
Be Rational – Why the focus on northern New England? Granted, if you look at some of the polls (IBD/TIPP May 31 – June 5) Johnson is doing better in rural areas (11% overall, 14% rural, 7% urban), which would seem to include northern New England. But, he also does very well among Hispanics (11% overall, 15% Hispanic, 12% white, 2% black.) That good showing among Hispanics also showed up in another poll (Fox News May 14 – 17), (10% overall, 11% white, 9% Hispanic, 5% black.)
By starting with a strong push in the Southwest, Johnson would get exposure to rural areas, Hispanics, and whites while largely avoiding areas where his message is less well received (blacks and urban areas.) So that would mean South and West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and parts of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. California is out just because most of it is expensive and urbanized. If there’s enough money, then go for it.
The second round could target states from Kansas north and west to Montana and (part of) Michigan, as well as northern New England. The more difficult areas – the money pits – should then be the NY-NJ-CT-RI area, as well as the southeast (perhaps excluding Florida), given Hillary is very strong there with blacks and Trump is very strong there with whites.
Of course, all of this is predicated on there being enough money and we have no idea where the Johnson campaign is with that.
GP can’t even set up 14 county groups or organize ballot status in one of the easy states.
No valid critique from his quarter.
gp, please elaborate. What is your critique here?
Network Broadcast TV as a starter. Snicker.
Not start in locations where there are network news operations (NY, DC, LA, Atlanta, Miami) Giggle.
Cable network news omitted. Yawwwnn.
NY Times, WA post, WSJ, IBD. LATIMES/ Alas, expensive.
Hurry Gary, if you haven’t raised enough money to get started, then you and Governor Weld should lend your campaign $250,000 and get started advertising. If you do, and if you keep the momentum going, you will be able to raise the money to pay yourselves back before November.
Even as Trump is trending downward, interest by the media is falling in your campaign – because you are doing nothing to raise your support in the general public.
The media was used by Trump, they don’t like being used and don’t get used easily. Thus far you were an interesting side story. That’s wearing off. But, if you give them even the slightest reason to keep covering you – like getting started on an advertising program on Major Network Broadcast TV in 6 targeted states – they will stay interested.
Start with: ME, NH and VT and NM, CO and UT
You need to show you have a plan to get to the 15% needed to get in the debates, to affect the election, to carry some electoral votes. The media will cover your plan. The leverage from running the ads will give you free coverage, nationally, worth far more than the cost of the ads.
You need to advertise on Major Network Broadcast TV – NOW!
The Johnson campaign has enough money to get started on major network broadcast TV advertising and free Youtube and other site posting of fundraising videos. It’s a matter of prioritization.
TV & Internet advertisements is a good thing. But they need a good media director & some $$$ for this to happen
The question keeps coming up from the media in interviews, including this one: Governor, what are you going to DO to get to the 15% you need to get into the debates?
Governor Johnson then talks about issues, or polls … and of course he’s using every opportunity to appear on TV, radio, news papers etc …
But, Governor, what ARE you going to DO to get up to 15% in the polls … ?
And sadly, the answer is “nothing.” So, he cannot answer and has to deflect. He needs to be able to say that the campaign has started a targeted TV advertising campaign, to win states that are key to a Johnson/Weld 270 Electoral Vote victory.
The Johnson campaign and any Johnson Super PACs should be running TV advertising right NOW – major network broadcast TV. There’s still time – this week, possibly the next – for the first flight of ads. The second flight should come around the time of the major party conventions, beginning just before, during and after the R convention – July 18 through 21 and continuing before during and after the D convention – July 25 through 28.
The TV spots should be run first in six target states: ME, NH and VT plus NM, CO and UT. If there is money available, add 3 more: MA, RI and CT (not including NYC), followed by the next 3: WA, OR and CA. (CA is huge, so it should be added last and in pieces, ending with LA, as money permits.)
There are already signs of a leveling off of interest based on the lack of campaign action. If the media sees nothing happening, they will lose interest quickly.
We must start advertising NOW to maintain our forward momentum.
If we let the momentum die out, it will be very difficult to get it started again.