One way to judge a third party is the extent to which it runs candidates for state legislature. This year, four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia, and New Jersey) have elections for their state legislatures, for two or four year terms. Historical precedent from 2019 and 2015 (the last two times that the four-year-terms were filled) suggests that something like half of the seats will have two major-party candidates in them. The other half (in the last two cycles, 40% or 60%) of the seats will have one major party candidate, and whoever else shows up.
Recruiting candidates to run for those seats should be a major challenge, and a major opportunity, for third parties. Contrariwise, if a third party that views recruiting state legislative candidates as unimportant, its members might ask if it is to be taken seriously. In addition, some states have moribund third-party organizations; a national party organization that ignores recruiting candidates for state legislature should also face questions from its members. Recruitment may or may not be successful, but a recruitment campaign or lack of same within the limit of party resources is a good indicator of third party strength.
Can this be done? Look at 2022 elections. In Alabama, Libertarians challenged for a quarter of all State Representative seats. In Arkansas, Libertarians challenged for almost a third of all State House of Representatives seats. These are states where one major party is largely missing from the November ballot. Its supporters have the choice of casting a blank ballot or voting Libertarian.
Some of these states have early filing deadlines. State organizations and members need to find out as soon as possible what those deadlines are.
In addition, this year Mississippi, Louisiana, and Kentucky have elections for statewide office.
I’m fairly confident that Richard Winger know those deadlines. Perhaps he will see this post and let us know.