This article was originally published by Sarah Michels on January 12, 2026, in the Carolina Public Press and is republished here under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution–NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. The Outsider Media Foundation and Independent Political Report are resharing this work in its original, unaltered form for its informational and analytical value, and the views and analysis expressed are those of the author.
Bobby Jenkins used to be a registered unaffiliated voter. In fact, he ran for Swain County Board of Commissioners in 2024 under the unaffiliated label and won a seat.
His feat was rare. Jenkins was one of 49 unaffiliated candidates in North Carolina’s 2024 elections, and one of only 13 winners (four of those winners had either no opposition or only unaffiliated opponents). The winning candidates nabbed spots on boards of commissioners and education. The 2022 midterm election was a similar story. Ten of 54 unaffiliated candidates won their races, and only six faced opposition.
If you thought the poor representation and performance of unaffiliated candidates would translate to voter registration, you’d be very wrong.
Shortly after the new year, state Republicans celebrated; for the first time in state history, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats. It’s an achievement worth acknowledging, but there’s an asterisk — Republicans are still second place.
While Republicans can now claim 30.25% of North Carolina’s registered voters and Democrats have 30.21%, unaffiliated voters have both parties beat, with 39% of total voter registrations.
It’s still a two-party system, so second place matters. However, North Carolina’s unique registration breakdown makes the impact of Republicans’ achievement on the upcoming midterm elections a bit murkier.
How did we get here?
Registering as unaffiliated wasn’t always so popular. In 1977, the first year it was officially an option in the state, unaffiliated voters made up just 4.1% of registered voters.
At the time, North Carolina had closed primaries; voters could only vote in the primary of the party with which they were registered. That left unaffiliated voters without a home, and unable to cast a ballot until the general election. There was little incentive not to choose a party.
That changed in 1988, when Republicans opened their primaries to unaffiliated voters. Nearly a decade later, in 1996, Democrats followed suit. Then, unaffiliated voters could choose which primary they wanted to vote in each cycle. Between 1997 and 2017, unaffiliated registration skyrocketed, from 12% of total registrations to 30%.
In September 2017, registered unaffiliated voters caught up to registered Republicans. Five years later, they also passed registered Democrats, and have shown no signs of slowing since.
Since 1977, Democrats have lost a lot of steam. They’ve dropped from 72% of registered voters to 30% in the past half century. Meanwhile, Republicans have stayed fairly steady, representing about a third of registered voters most of that same time period.
There’s no benefit for an average voter to be associated with a political party anymore, said Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the conserviative-leaning John Locke Foundation.
“So to the extent that Republicans have been able to have their brand be appealing enough for people to stay Republican — and disproportionately compared to Democrats, become Republican — that speaks to some success that they’ve had in the state,” he said. “But this is really a story about the demise of the Democrats, as far as registration goes, more than the rise of the Republicans.”
The Democratic Party used to cover a wider ideological spectrum, Jackson added. There were conservatives and progressives, Democrats focused more on social issues and others more concerned about economics. As that began to change in the 1960s and 1980s, Democrats throughout the entire South started to lose their iron grip on politics. Now, some of the older Democrats are aging out of the system, and being replaced by, largely, Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Republicans aren’t immune from this generational dynamic, said. Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer.
“Republicans are being buoyed by older voters and not necessarily younger voters,” he said. “So both political parties are going to have some major work if they want to fight the registration fight.”
What does it mean to be second?
Republicans’ success isn’t geographically isolated. North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Jason Simmons said in the past few years, 96 counties have had a voter registration shift advantaging Republicans.
“It’s a reflection that Republican priorities and policies that have been pursued, both at the federal and state level, continue to resonate with the voters of North Carolina, where our elected officials, our candidates continue to prioritize families and the citizens of North Carolina and are making sure that we make North Carolina the greatest place to work, live and retire,” he said.
People from blue states like New York and New Jersey are moving to North Carolina in large numbers, “because they recognize Democrat policies are failing them and their families,” Simmons added.
Jackson wouldn’t go so far to call the achievement an outright stamp of approval on current Republican policies. Yes, Republicans have been able to “tread water” while Democrats have had a hard time holding their own against the unaffiliated current, he said.
“That is an accomplishment,” he said. “Does it mean that the Republicans are a rising star in North Carolina? We’re not looking at Republican dominance, at least in the near term here.”
The state will continue to be purple, Bitzer added.
Voter registration is one part of the puzzle; turning out those voters is another.
North Carolina Republicans generally do a better job at turning out their voters, Bitzer said.
When they were behind on voter registration, boosting turnout helped them even the playing field. But now, they have a double structural advantage, Simmons said.
Even though the Republican proportion of voters has remained steady, the party has gained about 236,000 registered voters since Trump was first elected, while Democrats have lost about 412,000, Simmons noted. In reality, he thinks the prognosis is even better for the GOP — many unaffiliated voters cast ballots for Republicans.
There is some data on where unaffiliated voters’ allegiances lie, when they have to choose a party. According to Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper’s book, Anatomy of a Purple State, a majority of unaffiliated voters opted to vote in the Democratic primary in 2008, 2018 and 2020, while they leaned more toward Republican primaries from 2010 to 2016, and since 2022.
Generally speaking, unaffiliated voters are split down the middle, Bitzer said. Every election cycle is a little different.
Why aren’t unaffiliated voters represented in politics?
Unaffiliated voters may abound, but they don’t have anyone to vote for. In fact, only one unaffiliated candidate is running in the 2026 midterm elections: Chowan County Clerk of Superior Court Dwayne Goodwin.
Unaffiliated candidates face a Sisyphean journey before they can even get on the ballot. While Republican and Democratic candidates simply have to file basic documentation and pay a fine to get on the ballot, unaffiliated candidates must gather signatures from as many as 4% of registered voters eligible to vote in a particular contest.
Jenkins would rather not go through that trouble again, he said.
“I’d like to see it where you could file just like a Republican or Democrat and not have to go through all of that baloney of getting 500 signatures to get on the ballot, but I don’t think it will ever change,” he said.
Even if unaffiliated had a smoother ride to ballot access, it’s unlikely they’d have much more electoral success. In North Carolina, unaffiliated isn’t code for independent, Green Party, Libertarian or any other specific ideology. While unaffiliated voters tend to be younger and are less likely to be North Carolina natives, they lack any real unifying belief system. It’s the none-of-the-above choice.
“I can’t call anybody and say, ‘Well, what is the opinion, what is the platform of the unaffiliated?’” Jackson said. “Even if we change the system to make it easier, you can’t encapsulate all unaffiliated within one platform.”
If unaffiliated candidates don’t stand a chance, should the Republican Party even bother to try and overtake them in the voter registration game? Jackson says yes.
“You have a more solid base when you have people that are registered with your party,” he said.
Recruiting enough voters to the Republican Party may be harder than it seems. Bitzer said over half of Generation Z voters are registered unaffiliated, according to January data.
Simmons isn’t getting cocky.
“We’re very encouraged, but we understand we’ve got to continue to maintain the momentum going into this fall, that we cannot let up,” he said. “We’ve got to continue to be laser-focused on the priorities of building out our (party) infrastructure and making sure that we’re ready going into the midterm elections.”
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