New polling is out from the Denver Post:
Results also show that Tom Tancredo has brought Republican Party nightmares vividly to life, splitting conservative voters in half and delivering a hefty plurality to Democrat John Hickenlooper in a three-way general election race, according to the poll.
In that matchup based on interviews with 1,015 likely voters, Tancredo — representing the tiny American Constitution Party — would match Republican Dan Maes at 24 percent support, while Hickenlooper would walk away with 46 percent of the vote. Tancredo would do the same to Republican Scott McInnis, the poll said.
If Tancredo ends with this level of support on election day, it will be the strongest showingyet for the Constitution Party in a gubernatorial race. Of course, there are still other challenges ahead for Tancredo. One of course is fundraising, as it is hard to raise money outside of the two party system. The article cites some others.
While Tancredo appears to have enough support to affect the race, his supporters should not be too confident this early, Masket added.
“Those are very strong numbers for a third-party person; he might even come in second,” Masket said. “But it looks like he won’t be coming in first.”
American voters tend to get excited early about third-party newcomers but go back to their traditional parties by Election Day, Masket said. He noted the example of Ross Perot, who was polling ahead of President George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton in 1992, only to come in a distant third with 19 percent of the actual vote.
Tancreado a former republican is a deceiving glory hound. He is just prying republicans that voted for him before to switch over. he doesn’t care what party he runs under as long as he gets noticed. what a clown!
To get back to Tancredo, with 24% so early, he is definitely a contender to win the election. And if he stays at this level (I think he can rise to 30% or higher, if he sticks it out), it will have a delightful effect on the national party. They might even start paying attention to patriotic … American … citizens, for a change.
I second what Paulie said.
As I recall, Perot was actually leading polls early on. Then he had one of his paranoia attacks, and dropped off the radar for weeks. Then he started claiming that the feds had planned to disrupt his daughter’s wedding. Apparently, he’d gone off his meds. (Or needed to start taking meds!)
Had he stayed the course for the whole campaign, Perot would likely have gotten about ten points more on Election Day than he did, and finished second to Clinton, just ahead of Bush–and thrown the GOP into the biggest crisis of its history.
Trent Hill // Aug 1, 2010:
“pretty amazing polling position this early in. If he can keep from making any ridiculously unpopular statements and fundraise at a decent pace–he’ll actually be a contender in the race ……..”
well, like Perot P1992, maybe; like so many other times, maybe non Democan / non Republicrat enthusiasm will literally evaporate leading up to the only ‘pol’ that counts, the ballot box ……….
He noted the example of Ross Perot, who was polling ahead of President George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton in 1992, only to come in a distant third with 19 percent of the actual vote.
The whole “dropping in and out” thing seems to have been left out of that. Ventura?
Looking forward to all the media analysis of the Republicans as the “spoilers” in this race, LOL.
That’s a pretty amazing polling position this early in. If he can keep from making any ridiculously unpopular statements and fundraise at a decent pace–he’ll actually be a contender in the race.
While neither McInnis nor Maes are likely to make gains in numbers, Tancredo could because of his stature in the state, his nationwide base of support, etc. If he can pull ahead of McInnis, even by just a few points, expect his numbers to rise dramatically.
I always like it when a third party candidate gets in second place. Then it’s very hard indeed for the usual shills to cry about a spoiler effect. Conservatives worried about spoilers in this instance should demand the Republican candidate drop out.
24% is a big deal..
Jesse Ventura was much lower in the polls at this time during the election cycle when he was elected Gov.
Several Green Party candidates have been lower in the polls at this point and been elected.
The typical bias of the story is that the Green Party candidate can not be elected…
The Green Party keeps proving you can be elected..
Go Tom Tancredo!