This link was posted to September’s Open Thread by Rick Adams
Libertarian Candidate Rob Sarvis—the Democrats’ Dream!
Posted to Thebullelephant
by Brian Reynolds
What will libertarian candidate for Virginia governor Rob Sarvis’ legacy be? Will he be remembered as a hero for stepping up to the plate, or known several years from now by Republicans and effected libertarians as a person whose sole opportunistic achievement was diverting enough votes from the Republican candidate to elect a Democrat?
My bet is on the latter because as much as the libertarians are pissed off that Ron Paul didn’t take over the Tampa convention, and that Obama is still the antichrist—here in Virginia, they WILL be directly impacted with a Democrat back in the Governor’s mansion.
SARVIS SHOULD FOLLOW RAND PAUL’S LEAD
Rand Paul was smart enough to break away and not follow in his father’s footsteps. Rand instead has chosen to bridge the gap with the GOP, laying needed groundwork for the 2016/20 big show. Rand has fought hard and moved up the ranks, learned the processes, paid his dues, paved a path and created a history.
The rest of the article can be read here
Here’s another writer who appears to have noticed Robert Sarvis’ campaign:
Spoiler Alert in VA Governor Race
Posted by Laurel Conrad to legalinsurrection
Friday, September 13, 2013 at 8:25am
Spoiler candidate alert: Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a third-party candidate in the 2013 Virginia governor’s race. Although polling reveals that it is unlikely for him to win, will he split votes away from Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli in the process?
Election day is less than 60 days away, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe are in crunch time. However, neither candidate option fully satisfies voters. According to a recent poll of likely voters, only 34% of likely voters hold McAuliffe in a “favorable” opinion, and only 35% hold Cuccinelli in this regard.
Reflecting the mood of the Virginia race, Barton Hinkle likened the choice to “choosing between Sauron and SpongeBob Squarepants.”
For Virginia voters torn by this dilemma, Robert Sarvis may be an exciting prospect. Born and raised in the Northern Virginia area, he possesses a background prime for Virginia politics. Impressively, he received his undergraduate degree from Harvard, went on to receive a degree in mathematics from the University of Cambridge, a J.D. from N.Y.U School of Law, and a Master’s in economics from George Mason University.
ARVE error: need id and provider
No problem! 🙂
Thanks for all the links, Rick. I’ll try to get a new article posted with these within the next day or two, unless someone gets to it before me.
http://bearingdrift.com/2013/09/23/bearing-drift-poll-mcauliffe-35-5-cuccinelli-35-sarvis-10-8/
More recent analysis of the effect that Robert Sarvis could have on the governor’s race:
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/virginia-governors-race-tightens-libertarian-robert-sarvis-a-factor
http://www.samefacts.com/2013/09/polling/will-a-third-party-candidate-get-10-support-for-governor-of-virginia/
http://usconservatives.about.com/b/2013/09/22/will-robert-sarvis-play-spoiler-in-virginia-gubernatorial-contest.htm
http://ivn.us/icon/2013/09/23/libertarian-robert-sarvis-may-upset-balance-in-virginia/
It’s conceivable that some day, the Libertarian Party or any party could sue Virginia over the idiotic requirement that parties can’t place all their statewide nominees on a single petition. Virginia is almost the only state in the country which bars a statewide slate using one petition. Virginia is also one of only eleven states that has no procedure for a party to qualify itself before it has chosen its nominees. And it is tied with Oklahoma and New Jersey for having the 2nd highest vote test for a party to remain on the ballot. Virginia Libertarians ought to point out these flaws to the state legislature more aggressively than they have in the past.
Sarvis made Time magazine….
swampland.time.com/2013/09/19/in-virginia-governor-race-a-third-party-spoiler-threatens/
More recent media articles about Robert Sarvis for your reading pleasure:
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/political-potpourri/2013/sep/18/virginia-libertarian-sarvis-could-shake-election-g/
http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/19/in-virginia-governor-race-a-third-party-spoiler-threatens/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/20/robert-sarvis-the-other-choice-in-the-virginia-gubernatorial-race/
It is my understanding that the Sarvis petition drive ended up costing more than $25,000 this year. Sarvis personally funded all but $10k of that amount.
I’m not sure that we would be able to get a full slate of statewide candidates on the ballot in VA, unless they were all willing to self fund the petition drives.
SirGwain @36
Here’s the full list of LP candidates running this year in Virginia:
http://lpva.com/HTML/ourCandidates.php
“Marc Montoni // Sep 20, 2013 at 11:19 am
Unfortunately, SirGwain, each statewide ballot drive in Virginia requires 10,000 signatures ”
The candidates in Virginia all have to be on separate petition pages. This means that a candidate for Lieutenant Governor would have to submit a separate petition with 10,000 valid signatures. Not an easy task.
Unfortunately, SirGwain, each statewide ballot drive in Virginia requires 10,000 signatures (net; gross more like 13-16k), and as such would cost us about $20k. As it is, Sarvis self-funded most of his ballot drive.
Needless to say, 10,000 signatures is 9,999 more than the old crusty parties require of themselves (one signature each — from the state chairman of each party, certifying who the candidate of that party is).
Does the LP have candidates for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, etc. on the ballot?
😀
Agreed George. In this case, IPR served as a valuable tool to further the LP. I believe a few donations were made as a result of this discussion, and valuable thoughts were exchanged. So, it ain’t all s__t talkin’ on here.
I like this message thread. It is positive and active. Thanks to Andy, Matt , Marc and Steve M. Lets be fighters and elect candidates to office.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqreLg46h9k
Dana White: Do you want to be a fighter?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqreLg46h9k
This is the President of the Ultimate Fighting Championship asking some up and coming fighters if they really want to be fighters.
This relates the Libertarian Party, as in, do Libertarians really want to be a political, in that, do they really want to do all of the hard work involved with electing candidates to office?
So tell me Libertarians, do you want to be a political party? Do you want to be an f’ing political party?
“Matt Cholko // Sep 19, 2013 at 4:51 pm
I don’t disagree with you Andy. However, the idea that we can coordinate a massive number of donors and volunteers seems a little far fetched. I don’t think it is impossible, but it is certainly difficult.”
It really should not be far fetched for a seat in a state legislature. Far fetched for US House, maybe. Far fetched for Governor, US Senate, or President, for sure.
The fact that you say that it is “far fetched” to do what I suggested above to have a good shot at electing a candidate to a Virginia House of Delegates race that is a one-on-one race, tells me that the LP does not have its act together.
I know that there are plenty of Libertarians and small “l” libertarians in Virginia, DC, and in the part of Maryland that is close to Virginia. There should be more than enough people to where they can canvass the entire district more than one.
The question is, do Libertarians want to be a political party that actually wins something?
Marc, you’ve inspired me. I can’t match your $1400, but I am going to make a donation to each of the candidates that I haven’t already donated to right now.
I don’t disagree with you Andy. However, the idea that we can coordinate a massive number of donors and volunteers seems a little far fetched. I don’t think it is impossible, but it is certainly difficult.
One major problem I see with LP campaigns in general is that they start way too late in the election cycle. I think that if a candidate for a state legislature seat, that is reasonably well known within the party, starts 2 years before the election, it may be possible to pull off something somewhere close to what you suggest.
I think VA is in a good position to do something like this, in that our state legislature is elected in odd years. So, there are far fewer races for donors to spend their money on.
The other side of this though is that it is incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to identify a race that will only include one major party candidate 2 years out.
Further, winning would still be a very long shot, in virtually every case. So, why would Ls send all of their money to one, or 3, or 5 candidates, come to the state to work for free (or low pay), knowing that the outcome is still likely to be an R or D winning?
I see people say all the time that “the incumbent raised only $80,000 last election. So, all we need is $100,000 and we’ll be able to outspend them and have a shot at winning.” However, this ignores the realities of major party politics. The Rs and Ds can easily shoot $500,000 to an incumbent that they believe is being threatened by an L. Hell, in VA, they’ll spend a million on a state house seat.
“the 12”
Should read the 12th.
Marc Montoni said: “I don’t think concentrating on any of our candidates will result in a win this time around, Andy.”
If enough people in the party would target their donations to the most winnable race or races, and if the canvassing ideas I mentioned in post #17 were implemented, I think that one of these candidates would stand a good chance of winning.
Can you imagine how big of a morale booster it would be if the Libertarian Party of Virginia elected a candidate to the House of Delegates? Virginia is the 12 most populated state in the country. The Libertarian Party has never elected anyone to a seat in a state legislature in a high population state, as the few times the Libertarian Party elected anyone to a seat in a state legislature it was in the low population states of Alaska, New Hampshire, and Vermont, and the last time that happened was over a decade ago.
State legislative races are winnable for the Libertarian Party. The question is, will enough party members put in the hard work to make it happen?
Well, they’re all young except for my fellow dinosaur, Dan Foster. But he is certainly young in spirit!
I don’t think concentrating on any of our candidates will result in a win this time around, Andy.
The main reason I am donating to all is that the batch of candidates is really, really GOOD. They’re calling for radical solutions such as abolishing the state income tax and ending prohibition. They’re not mamby-pamby on the issues like so many scared libertarians are.
They’re also all young, and they’re giving me hope that when old dinosaurs like me are gone from the scene, that the drive for human liberty will be in good hands.
“Marc Montoni // Sep 19, 2013 at 8:41 am
I am donating $200 to each of the LP House of Delegates candidates in Virginia. It adds up to a personal investment of $1400 this year.”
This is a good thing that you are doing Marc, however, do you think that it would make more sense to target all of your donation money to the one candidate who has the best chance of winning – or at least having the most impressive vote total – than to spread it out over 7 candidates?
I am donating $200 to each of the LP House of Delegates candidates in Virginia. It adds up to a personal investment of $1400 this year.
Match me.
If anyone else is interested in making a donation to all of our candidates, you can do so with one check or credit card payment via the Libertarian Party of Virginia, which will then distribute your donation as you direct. The all-in-one payment procedure is e-z and is described in this article from our Virginia announcements list.
Otherwise, go to the candidate list on the LPVA website and follow the links to each campaign donation site.
Either way, if you don’t have any elections in your state this year, then make an investment in the excellent candidates in Virginia.
@18 The Rally fund raising page worked for me.
Thanks George!
One issue that ought to be pushed is that of jury nullification. Fully informing potential jurors of their right to nullify bad laws is a good way to stop prosecuting people for victimless crimes. This is something that can be effective even if no libertarians get elected to office.
Matt #14 and Andy #17, thanks for the suggestion. I am mailing a donation to Laura Delhomme’s campaign. (The Rally fund raising page would’nt work for me.) I hope she does really well. And there is synergy when you have great Delegate candidates and a Governor candidate running at the same time.
“Matt Cholko // Sep 18, 2013 at 9:52 pm
Laura Delhomme is in a 1 on 1 race with a Democrat.”
Here is what ought to be done. Libertarians around the country should flood money into this race. There ought to be Libertarians walking to every door in this district to hand out literature and talk to the voters. They should carry voter registrations for those who are not registered to vote. Since the LP candidate is running head-to-head against a Democrat, the LP door-to-door canvassers should target Republicans, independents, non-voters (that can register to vote of course), and supporters of other minor partiers (Greens, Constitution Party, etc…). Most Democrats will vote for the Democrat and few will be swayed to vote Libertarian. The LP canvassers should bring along a contact list for those interested to fill out. There should also be Libertarians standing at public locations in the district, such as busy city sidewalks, transit stops, Post Offices that have entrances on city sidewalks, etc…, and they should be there to hand out campaign literature, DVD’s, bumper stickers, etc.., and they should also have contact lists for people to fill out and voter registration forms for those who are not registered. Libertarians from around Virginia as well as the nearby areas in Washington DC and Maryland should be recruited as volunteers to do this. Also, look to groups like Campaign for Liberty, as well as college campus libertarian clubs to recruit more volunteers. Let them all know that there is a one-on-one, Libertarian vs. Democrat race, and that it is a winnable race. If enough money comes in you should hire people to walk the district full time up until the election. Libertarians should volunteer the use of their cars to drive people to polling places on election day, and vans should be rented to supplement this.
Stress issues where the Libertarian is different than the Democrat, but do not sound too much like a conservative. Push the Democrat to participate in a debate, and if they do not publicly mock them for it.
Tell everyone something like, “This is your chance to make history by electing the first Libertarian to the Virginia House of Delegates.”
It has been more than a decade since the Libertarian Party elected anyone to a seat in a state legislature anywhere, and the Libertarian Party has never done this before n a high population state. This is your chance to make history and to give the party a much needed morale boost.
@15 As I commented on BAN, I think polls often overstate 3rd party numbers because they don’t include ALL ballot-qualified candidates in their polls. Gary Johnson did much worse in polls vs. Stein vs. Romney vs. Obama vs. Goode than just vs. Romney vs. Obama. New Jersey is known for having a ton of candidates on the ballot, so the “tired of the status quo” crowd splits up its vote, and Daggett performed far worse than he polled. Sarvis is one of only 3 candidates however.
I think another cause for overstatement is debate exclusion; down the homestretch debates are a free advantage for candidates who make them, although this year in VA people are paying so little attention to them that I think this isn’t a disadvantage to Sarvis vs. no debates at all. Debates already aren’t a major factor and this year in VA people are tuning in even less. Inclusion would certainly help Sarvis, but I don’t think exclusion is hurting. So the polls are at least close to accurate in my view.
“Quinnipac predicts unprecedented Libertarian surge in Virginia governor’s race!” … or does it?
http://moelane.com/2013/09/18/ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-third-party-governor-virginia/
Laura Delhomme is in a 1 on 1 race with a Democrat. We absolutely welcome all donations, large or small. I encourage everyone to head over to http://www.lauradelhomme.com and give as much as you can. We’ll be starting our direct mail program next week, so donations right now will be put to good use.
We are running a real campaign. Laura is getting around, talking to everyone she can. Flyers and signs are being distributed, and, as I mentioned, direct mail is coming soon.
Further, the focus of the campaign is on building the LP support base, and promoting the LP. So, there is much to be gained, even if Laura doesn’t win the race.
Maybe he can crack 15% or even 20%. Wouldn’t that be something.
Out of the 7 LP house candidates, a few are in 1 on 1 races. Jonathan Parrish in the 23rd, Laura Delhomme in the 47th, and I think Lindsay Bolton (not sure of the district, somewhere in northern Virginia). A lot of times candidates enter races that look like they might be 1 on 1 contests, only to see another major party candidate enter at the last minute. I believe this happened in the 55th to Chris Sullivan and in the 78th with Dan Foster. The 78th is actually a 4 way race (there’s an independent); the race became wide open when incumbent John Cosgrove withdrew to run for a special state Senate election (and won).
“Matt Cholko // Sep 18, 2013 at 8:50 am
There are several candidates running for HOD. I’m managing Laura Delhomme’s campaign. Some of these candidates are running serious campaigns, but I don’t think any of them will be winning this year.
As for real effort going on, I’d say that there is. But, that doesn’t mean we can work magic.”
Are any of these races for House of Delegates races where there is a Libertarian Party candidate up against only a Democrat or a Republican, as in a two way race? If so, Libertarians from around the country ought to flood money into said race.
And the bull elephant dude thinks Cuccinelli would be preferable to McAuliffe why?
There are several candidates running for HOD. I’m managing Laura Delhomme’s campaign. Some of these candidates are running serious campaigns, but I don’t think any of them will be winning this year.
As for real effort going on, I’d say that there is. But, that doesn’t mean we can work magic.
It is nice that the LP of VA has a candidate for Governor, and it is great that that candidate is getting some publicity, but what about the LP of VA’s candidates for House of Delegates (this is the Virginia state legislature)? The candidates for House of Delegates have a better chance of getting elected than the candidate for Governor does. Is there any real effort going on to elect a Libertarian to the Virginia House of Delegates?
That’s great Matt #6. Many people will remember “Libertarian” from past campaigns and when they read about Robert Sarvis will cast their first vote for a Libertarian. The consistent, relentless repetition will be rewarded thanks to your constant dedication and activity.
FYI George, those two precincts that you helped with last year, and I have worked every year since 2008, are about to see lots of Sarvis flyers and signs.
Keep us posted, Rick. This is a fine campaign for us to follow.
Virginia Libertarians and Robert Sarvis are running a fine campaign. Best wishes for them to break the 10% threshold and become a major party in Virginia.
Looks like the BULL Elephant is at it again… with a desperate plea for libertarians to vote for Ken Cuccinelli, but like Jill said, it’s more free publicity for Robert Sarvis.
http://thebullelephant.com/top-3-reasons-libertarians-should-vote-cuccinelli/
*excuse me, 7% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats according to Harper (and it does make a difference in how you ask, R/D or C/L)
Looks like he’s still at 10% according to Harper Polling, good sign! http://www.conservativeintel.com/917-conservative-intel-poll-of-va-mcauliffe-has-the-upper-hand/
All this “spoiler” crap gets annoying, though thankfully it hasn’t been very prevalent in coverage of Sarvis. Only 7% of Conservatives and 4% of Liberals go to Sarvis according to Harper, so it only helps out McAuliffe slightly.