Suffolk University in partnership with USA Today released a poll examining the 2024 presidential election earlier this week. The recent survey provided voters with seven options, including the less frequent choices of a potential nominee from the Libertarian Party and an unnamed No Labels candidate option, giving one of the more detailed insights into the upcoming election thus far.
The poll, which examined both a seven-way scenario and a three-way version involving the Republican and Democratic frontrunners and a generic third-party option, reveals that Trump leads in both situations by slim margins. Suffolk University conducted the poll from December 26 to December 29, 2023, surveying a total of 1,000 individuals over 18 years of age.
In the general election scenario featuring seven candidates, the poll specifically included Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Libertarian Lars Mapstead, Green Jill Stein, independents Robert F. Kennedy and Dr. Cornel West, and an unnamed No Labels option. Respondents were also given the choice of selecting “undecided” or refusing to participate.
In this scenario, Republican Donald Trump leads the field with a plurality, garnering 37.2% support among those surveyed. President Joe Biden follows closely at 33.9%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in third place at 9.5%. Cornel West is the fourth most popular choice with 2.4% support, trailed by Lars Mapstead at 2.3%, the No Labels option at 1.6%, and Jill Stein at 1.3%. Additionally, 11.1% of voters said they remain undecided.
When voters who initially supported a third party or independent candidate were asked to select a second-choice candidate, the results remained in favor of Donald Trump at 23.98%, followed by Joe Biden at 18.71%. Notably, Cornel West emerges as the third choice, with 12.87% of respondents selecting him as their second choice, followed by Kennedy at 8.77%, Stein at 7.6%, the No Labels option at 5.26%, and Mapstead at 2.92%.
In a less detailed three-way race scenario involving Trump, Biden, and a generic third party candidate, Trump maintains a narrower lead with 43.8% support, closely trailed by Biden at 42.8%. Interestingly, a combined generic third party option garners less support, accounting for only 11.4% of those surveyed, compared to a field featuring specific candidate names.
A closer look at the data reveals that support for candidates other than Donald Trump and Joe Biden is strongest in the Northeast, where 22% of surveyed voters express a preference for a generic third party contender. Conversely, support is weakest in the American South, with only 13% of those surveyed favoring such a choice.
When respondents were provided with specific candidate options, the results painted a more regionally diverse picture. Trump’s support base is strongest in the South (46%), while Biden sees most of his stem from the Northeast (41%). Support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was highest in the West (11%), Cornel West found a stronger backing in the Northeast (4%), and Jill Stein was most favored in the Midwest (3%). Lars Mapstead and the No Labels option both receive relatively even support across all four regions (2% each).
When broken down among Republicans, Democrats, and a broad independent category, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump unsurprisingly capture the lion’s share of their respective parties, with 80% and 79% support, respectively. Kennedy is most popular with independents, garnering 15% support from this group. However, he pulls more support from Republicans (8%) than from the Democratic Party (5%), a trend that has emerged since his departure from the Democratic Party.
Cornel West, on the other hand, finds his highest number of supporters among Democrats (4%), followed by independents (3%), with virtually no support from Republicans. Similarly, Jill Stein also garners support from both independents (2%) and Democrats (2%) without any backing from Republicans. In contrast, both Lars Mapstead and the No Labels option are primarily favored by independents (5% and 3%, respectively), with only 1% support from Republicans and Democrats alike for both candidates.
When examining voter age, it becomes evident that nearly every candidate, except for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, enjoys the most popularity among 18 to 34-year-old voters. The exceptions to this trend are Cornel West, who finds slightly more support among 35 to 49-year-old voters, and the No Labels option, which garners equal support from both 18 to 34-year-olds and voters over 65 years of age.
Readers of Independent Political Report can find marginals for the Suffolk University poll here, whereas they can find tables for the poll here.
Maybe Jackie put a “hex” on them? 😛
I’m happy to see the LP included in a national poll, however I’m curious how they decided which of the Libertarian Party candidates to include.