The Snitker Paradox

[Note: I am aware we have had a sudden influx of posts on Alexander Snitker, but I have been working on this article for a couple of days now and will darn well post it!]

In Florida, Marine Corps veteran Alex Snitker is the first Libertarian to ever appear on the ballot for US Senate. His campaign has been aggressive; a recent press release points out that he has about 20 active volunteer staff and 250 ground volunteers.

Nevertheless, the campaign has struggled to break into the popular limelight. In May, an internal poll put Snitker at 2.5% (however, the polling firm did not release a margin of error, so beware of the accuracy). About those numbers:

Another curious note, when voters know Snitker, he appears to take the largest chunk from Meek [the Democrat], though the margin of error in this question is likely too high to draw conclusions.

Then recently PublicPolicyPolling, one of the most prolific pollsters this cycle, released their own numbers on the race. These numbers put Snitker at 3% when Kendrick Meek is the Democratic nominee, and 4% with Jeff Greene- with a margin of error of 3.26%. But the head-to-head numbers may not be as interesting as who makes up Snitker’s support.

To crunch some numbers for the reader:

Snitker is viewed favorably by

• 7% of McCain voters and 27% of Obama voters
• 24% of moderates, 24% of liberals, and 4% of conservatives
• 18% of independents, 27% of Democrats, and 5% of Republicans

Snitker is viewed unfavorably by

• 17% of moderates, 21% of liberals, and 24% of conservatives
• 26% of McCain voters and 15% of Obama voters
• 15% of independents, 17% of Democrats, and 27% of Republicans

All of this points out something very interesting about Alex Snitker’s campaign: while a quick look at his campaign website shows that the candidate has been courting the Tea Party, some of his greatest potential support may be found in those who dislike that movement.

To be fair, Republicans in Florida may be developing a knee-jerk antipathy to third party movements. There has been lots of conflict in that state between the Tea Party (a political party) and more Republican Tea Partiers. This probably explain the negative favorables from conservatives and Republicans towards the candidate. And of course, a majority of voters still aren’t familiar with Snitker, so there is plenty of room to grow in any direction. The candidate could not be reached via email, but I welcome any comments from the Snitker campaign.

This seems to be a never-ending debate in the LP- whose support should you target? In 2008, Mike Munger targeted disenchanted progressives to qualify the LP in North Carolina through his gubernatorial run. And now, radio host Michael Beitler is running for US Senate and is polling somewhere between 6% and 10%. His strongest numbers are among independents, liberals, and African-Americans.

On the other hand, the traditional perception of the Texas LP is that it has a more conservative constituency. This state affiliate managed 1 million votes in a judicial race last year, and it has managed to stay on the ballot since 2004 in one of the most unfriendly states toward minor parties. This year, its gubernatorial nominee (Kathie Glass) has run on a decidedly Tea Party favor, gaining endorsements and running to the right of incumbent Rick Perry on many issues.

You can see Snitker’s campaign website here.