Gary Johnson At 8% in North Carolina Poll

A new poll from North Carolina-based Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling has Gary Johnson at 8%. From Tom Jensen:

In addition to looking at a straight head to head between Obama and Romney, PPP also tested a three way contest with the two of them and Gary Johnson running as a Libertarian.  In that scenario Obama’s lead over Romney expands to 4 points at 45-41, with Johnson taking 8% of the vote. Johnson takes 9% of the Republican vote compared to only 4% of Democrats and his presence results in Romney’s advantage with independents being cut in half from 20 points to only 10.

I doubt Gary Johnson will end up getting 8% of the vote in North Carolina come this fall.  But the numbers do show that Republican voters are more likely to seek out a third party option than Democrats are, and that could really make a difference in a closely divided state whose outcome  doesn’t seem likely to be decided by more than 2 or 3 points either way.

Full results here. In 2008 Libertarian nominee Bob Barr received 0.6% in the polls, one of his stronger states that year. Barr visited the state several times in that campaign, and had polled as high as 6% in another PPP poll from 2008. Minor party candidates tend to under-perform results from polls when election day arrives.

The Libertarian Party of North Carolina has been one of the stronger state affiliates in recent years. In 2010 radio host Mike Beitler polled as high as 10% in his race for US Senate, although he has since joined the Republican Party and is running for Secretary of State in North Carolina. In 2008 its candidates for Governor and Senate, Michael Munger and Chris Cole, polled at 6% two months before election day.  Munger, a former chair of the Political Science department of Duke University, is speculated to run again in 2012.

10 thoughts on “Gary Johnson At 8% in North Carolina Poll

  1. Robert Capozzi

    bh, yes, I’d thrown MM out as a great ticket topper perhaps a year ago. Fellow NCan Sister Hogarth claimed there was no way he’d do it.

    However, as a #2 to a GJ might change the calculation.

  2. Johnson/Ventura '12

    Gary Johnson should easily win this nomination I would assume and he has a pretty clear message in his campaign.

  3. Losty

    He just got 168 votes (With 94% in) in NH as a Republican. Didn’t NH know he withdrew..

    Tell you how weird it is.. Roemer’s at 890, Karger’s at 323, Bachmann’s at 332, and Cain.. Yes THAT Cain, is at 147

    Of interest here I assume: Darcy Richardson’s at 251 (Dem), Tyler’s at 93, Vermin Supreme’s at 793.

    And, NH has a 15% threshold for Dem delegates, both Richardson and Tyler’s at 0%.

  4. Steve

    New Hampshire is a primary state, not a caucus, so Johnson’s switch to the LP came too late for the ballots be be changed. Same thing with Bachmann, MSNBC was even reporting her votes when I watched last night.

    I’d second a Johnson/Munger ticket!

  5. paulie

    New Hampshire is a primary state, not a caucus, so Johnson’s switch to the LP came too late for the ballots be be changed.

    Would have been nice to see him take more advantage of that. Oh well.

  6. citizen1

    A little off topic, but looking at where GJ polls as a LP candidate, the best strategy to minimize Ron Paul would have been to include not exclude GJ because he is the one candidate that could have cut into RP base and split off some of his support.

  7. just asking

    @10 OTOH, by excluding Johnson (and Roemer), there are fewer voices on stage speaking out again torture, war, etc — reenforcing the idea that the “mainstream” of the GOP is in favor of war, gulag camps, etc.

    The “ringer” in there to split Paul’s vote was Huntsman who tried to speak moderately on foreign war issues, but of course he was in the pocket of the RNC the whole time and has already endorsed Romney.

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