It is now accepted as highly unlikely that he would run third party–but should he do so, Ron Paul could score 13% in a three way race, or so says Rasmussen Reports.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul appears more interested in influencing the direction of the Republican Party than in running as an independent presidential candidate. But perhaps Democrats should be careful what they wish for: Even if Mitt Romney’s remaining GOP challenger should run as a third party candidate, new Rasmussen Reports surveying finds Romney the winner of a three-way race.
The latest national telephone survey shows that 25% of Likely U.S. Voters think Paul should run as a third party candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) disagree, but 13% more are not sure.
13% is the type of number third party candidates would like to see–as it comes close to qualifying them for general election debates.
Andy-Even if Ron Paul will be a certified write-in candidate in your state, there is no way he can win the general election if he isn’t the nominee of a party. Please don’t waste your vote. Not voting is also wasting your vote. Please ask yourself: Would Obama, Romney, or Johnson be the best president if those are the only three options? Vote for the one of those three that you agree with most. Don’t write-in a candidate.
All: thank you for responding. Are you going to vote for Ron Paul in California to help him win the primary? You’re probably not a registered Republican, huh? I voted for him in 2008, too. As you know, he is now winning states through his delegate strategy, but every popular vote helps America accept him more and if he actually won another state (beside Virgin Islands) with popular vote, especially one such as California, that would significantly help us get to a second vote at the brokered convention. Obama/Romney are the same, that’s why I can’t vote for Romney. We’re trying to save the Republican party (since the minds of the masses are swayed by the MSM and seem to only think they can vote democrat or republican.) Thank you for the info on trying to get him as an official write in – so if he’s not in that states database as a write in, they pretend you didn’t vote for a president, even if you wrote his name in?
Seriously, though, we are really trying to get him to win the nomination. Without Ron Paul in office, (and no one else constitutional has a remote chance), the next four years will be even worse for our liberties, our finances, and our troops. Here’s a website that’s calculating actual delegates as they do the state conventions; so Romney’s numbers have been going down as more and more delegates are Ron Paul’s if you want to keep tabs. This weekend we have 3 more state conventions, next weekend 6 more, etc. http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/ This is the most exciting election of my life! (I’m 35)
Andy- Do you plan to vote for anyone for president?
“Trent Hill // May 10, 2012 at 3:05 am
Andy–Im not sure how you can claim to be such an LP partisan and then openly claim you aren’t going to vote for Johnson, much less work for him. Seems like it would cost you petitioning work too.”
I’m a Libertarian Party member, but I believe in principle over party, and frankly, I consider the greater libertarian movement to be bigger than the Libertarian Party.
I think that Gary Johnson is violating the principles of the Libertarian Party by making the Fair Tax a part of his campaign platform. I don’t think that a candidate necessarily has to promote “anarchy the day I take office,” so I don’t have a problem with gradualist steps towards individual liberty (although I tend to prefer big steps over small steps), but I don’t consider the Fair Tax to be a gradualist step towards individual liberty, I think that at best it is no better than the current system, and it just may actually be worse than the current system. It is also a very deceptive issue, it’s deceptive in it’s name, deceptive in the percent that the tax is (it is marketed as being a 23% tax when it is really a 30% tax), and it’s deceptive in it’s marketing (it is being marketed as a libertarian reform, when there’s nothing about it that is libertarian, or even moving in a direction that is more libertarian than what we have now). I think that the Fair Tax is a scam and that it’s got an evil agenda behind it.
Does this mean that Gary Johnson is a bad guy? Maybe, but not necessarily. Perhaps Johnson really has bought into the hype that the Fair Tax is better than what we’ve got now, or maybe he’s bought into it for some other reason. Maybe he thinks that he’s going to make enough cuts in government that things would be better if he got elected even with the Fair Tax. I don’t know what Gary Johnson’s motivation is for supporting the Fair Tax and for pushing it so much, but whatever his motivation is, I think that it represents a flaw in his thinking.
Hey, don’t get me wrong, there are things that I like about the guy. Heck, a part of me even wants to vote for him, however, I said a few years ago when I looked into the Fair Tax and found out what a sham it is that I wasn’t going to support any Libertarian Party candidates for federal office who support this toxic plan.
As far as me working on Libertarian Party petitions goes, what difference does that make whether I support Johnson or not? Most of the people working on Libertarian Party petitions right now are not even Libertarians and they have no intention of voting for Johnson or any other Libertarian Party candidates. Also, some of the LP petitions will include other LP candidates on the same petition with Johnson, so maybe they’d be for LP members for whom I’d be more inclined to vote.
I’m not against Johnson on every issue. I agree with most of what he says he wants to do. I’ve just got a few disagreements, the biggest of which is the Fair Tax. I’m willing to see what Johnson does on the campaign trail. I really hope that it’s not another disaster like the Bob Barr campaign.
Even with my few disagreements with Johnson, he’s still a lot better on paper as compared to Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. I think that the majority of “third party” and independent candidates are better than the majority of Democrats and Republicans, and I’ve gathered many signatures for the Constitution Party, the Green Party, and other “third party” and independent candidates.
I joined the LP back in 1996, and I started working in ballot access in 2000, and from 2000-early 2004 whenever I did ballot access for a party or candidate, it was only for Libertarians, but in 2004 I decided to start doing it for other “third parties” and independents, because I figured that #1) most of them are better than most of the Democrats and Republicans, and #2) they aren’t likely to win anyway. There were actually 3 well known Libertarian Party members who encouraged me to work other “third parties” and independents. They were Wes Benedict, Bill Redpath, and Richard Winger.
My work for the Green Party on a petition drive in Arkansas back in 2006 actually helped the Libertarian Party. How? Some state officials in Arkansas used illegal means to claim that the signature requirement to gain full party status in Arkansas had been raised from 10,000 valid signatures to 23,000 valid signatures. The Greens gathered enough signatures to meet the 10,000 valid signature requirement, and this gave them standing to file a law suit against the claim that he requirement was 23,000 valid signatures. The Green Party of Arkansas won that law suit and the signature requirement in Arkansas to gain full party status in Arkansas remained at 10,000 valid signatures.
The Libertarian Party of Arkansas was never able to get it together enough to get full party status until 2011. Prior to this the LP of AR only got their presidential candidate on the ballot which can be done with 1,000 signatures in Arkansas. The LP of AR conducted a full party status in Arkansas and was successful in achieving this goal (I played a big part in the signature gathering for this), and now for the first time the LP of Arkansas is running a slate of Libertarian Party candidates. This would not have been possible if the Green Party of Arkansas had not won that law suit back in 2006, and they would not have won that law suit if they didn’t have those signatures I helped them gather to get standing for that law suit.
Andy–Im not sure how you can claim to be such an LP partisan and then openly claim you aren’t going to vote for Johnson, much less work for him. Seems like it would cost you petitioning work too.
“Trent Hill // May 9, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Nikki–if Ron Paul won the GOP nomination, it’s quite likely the CP and LP would abandon their presidential candidacies, I think. However, it is quite likely that Paul won’t win the nomination.”
If Ron Paul were to pull off one of the biggest upsets in history and win the Republican Party’s Presidential nomination, then the only logical thing for the Libertarian Party and Constitution Party’s presidential campaigns would be for them to stop campaigning for themselves and throw their full support behind Ron Paul. Ron Paul is not likely to win the Republican nomination though, so I believe that this will be a moot point.
“Please don’t write in Paul in November. He will not be a qualified write-in candidate—your vote will not even be recorded in most states, it will just be thrown away. It’d be like not-voting, except that you wasted 10 minutes.”
I cast a write in vote for Ron Paul last time, and I may do so again. I voted in California in 2008 and Ron Paul was an official write in candidate in California. Write in candidates for President in California only have their votes counted if somebody submits a list of Presidential Electors for the write in candidate prior to the election, and a group of Ron Paul supporters did this in California so people like myself who wrote in Ron Paul for President had our votes counted.
I’m probably not going to vote for Gary Johnson. Why? Mainly because support for the Fair Tax is a part of his campaign platform and I really despise the Fair Tax, not just because I consider it to be a bad issue, but also because I think that it is a deceptive issue.
I’m not sure if I’m going to vote in California again or somewhere else. The rules for write in candidates vary from state to state so where I am at during the election could determine how I vote, or whether I even bother voting at all.
So I might cast another write in vote for Ron Paul, or maybe I’ll cast a write in vote for somebody else, or maybe there will be some other candidate for whom I’ll cast a vote, or maybe I won’t bother voting at all, or maybe I’ll vote for other offices or vote on initiative or referenda issues (if I’m in a state that has this process) but I’ll leave the ballot blank for President.
I hope that the Gary Johnson campaign isn’t a disaster like the Bob Barr campaign was, but I also hope that it doesn’t cause the Libertarian Party to get labeled as “the Fair Tax party” or something like that.
Matt, I think the practical outcome would be to abandon the campaigns. I can’t imagine Johnson or Goode would campaign very hard and I know many of the activists in both parties would stop working for those campaigns.
I don’t think that either the CP or LP would abandon their campaigns, as doing so would come at a terrible cost to ballot access. However, I don’t think that either party’s candidate would get many votes.
Nikki–if Ron Paul won the GOP nomination, it’s quite likely the CP and LP would abandon their presidential candidacies, I think. However, it is quite likely that Paul won’t win the nomination.
Please don’t write in Paul in November. He will not be a qualified write-in candidate—your vote will not even be recorded in most states, it will just be thrown away. It’d be like not-voting, except that you wasted 10 minutes.
I was just wondering why the Constitution Party has a candidate in 2012 (no offense intended) when we could pool our efforts for Ron Paul, Champion of the Constitution. Wouldn’t a vote for him satisfy both the need to vote our conscience AND vote for someone who can defeat Obama? Just curious. I absolutely will not vote for Romney, in case you’re wondering. I’ll write Ron Paul in if I have to. But we are winning states now through the delegate process. Anyway, if someone could answer my question, I sure would appreciate it – I’ve been curious about it for some time now.
They won’t.
When will the major polling firms include Gary Johnson in their polls?