Gallup Poll Includes Johnson, Stein, Goode

A new national Gallup poll was released July 6th, and it included three additional candidates on top of President Barack Obama, and former Governor Mitt Romney. These candidates were Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Jill Stein of the Green Party, and Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party.
I'm going to read a list of five candidates for president who may appear on the ballot in a significant number of states this November. Supposing that all of these candidates were on the ballot in your state, which one would you be most likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party candidate,] or will you be voting for someone else? (Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, which one of these candidates do you lean toward?

The drop in support during the campaign is likely due to two factors. First, historically, third-party candidates’ support typically drops as the campaign approaches Election Day, perhaps because voters realize the candidates have little chance to win. Second, generally speaking, support for third-party candidates tends to be higher in the broader pool of registered voters than in the smaller group of actual voters.

Lower-profile third-party candidates also tend to receive higher support in preference polls when included in the list of candidates than they receive in the actual vote. Gallup has asked the vote-choice question that includes minor-party candidates in each election year since 1996, including in the fall, when Gallup begins measuring likely voters’ preferences. In every instance, the available registered and likely voter estimates exceeded the actual percentage of the vote the candidate received in the election.

Read the whole article on Gallup: Little Support for Third-Party Candidates in 2012 Election

More additional media coverage of this new Gallup poll can be found at ReasonSlate, and Examiner.

46 thoughts on “Gallup Poll Includes Johnson, Stein, Goode

  1. William Saturn

    ‘Poorly’ according to what? What is the standard for being poor?

  2. JD

    If those numbers held up I would consider them pretty good. Usually more than 100,000,000 people vote so that would give the LP 3,000,000 votes, GP 1,000,000 votes, and the CP 500,000. Those arent enough for matching funds but it is still an excellent showing.

  3. Reed Ebarb

    Goode isn’t fundraising much at all and the CP is on the decline for the most part so I don’t expect much from him. Johnson should receive more coverage though

  4. JD

    The debates should be opened up to at least the Big 5. I would prefer every candidate that is on enough ballots to win be in the debates. Reed, you are correct that the CP seems to be in decline. They just dont seem to be very enthusiastic.

  5. R. D. Holland

    With Third Party petitioners collecting signatures daily to get on the ballot in many states, I don’t pay much attention to polls at this point. Getting your name on the ballot in all 50 states is a concern the two major parties do not have to contend with, and I never knew really it was so hard myself until becoming more politically “involved” this year. Evidently I am not alone in refusing to let “the polls” dampen my enthusiasm, because I see many others devoting their valuable time and efforts to support the Third Party candidate of their choice. Good luck to everyone!

  6. R. D. Holland

    #6. While Mr. Goode’s “fundraising” might be on “the decline”, his “campaigning” is not and he is getting votes the old-fashioned way — handshaking and one at a time. We collected almost 500 signatures in an afternoon and evening in eastern Virginia on Thursday, and am getting closer and closer to the 10,000 signatures required by the “Old Dominion” to get on the ballot. Also, North Carolina requires 500 “good signatures” to qualify as a write-in candidate in that state, and with that deadline upon us, Goode may be the only one listed in the category, as we have been collecting names those names on petitions. Plus, a handful of names came in from Indiana last week, so I would argue that the CP is not on the decline at all, but moving along nicely “under the radar.”

  7. Reed Ebarb

    That may be the case but looking at the party since 2000 in the form of funds, money situation, activism, and registered voters, as well as press coverage, I have no choice but to conclude that it is on the decline. Perhaps that is being turned around as we speak. That is for others to decide.

  8. JD

    I am voting for Mr. Goode. I like him very much and have donated to the campaign. I think he will top 250,000 votes. I have two Goode 2012 bumper stickers on my car! I just dont know about the CP as a whole.

  9. NewFederalist

    Without CA and TX it will be tough for the CP to really break out this year. They may not make ballot status in NY as well as IL, IN, NC, OK, VT and DC. I believe that list will grow as deadlines pass. They really need the AIP line in CA.

  10. Reed E

    If they don’t make it in California, they are done. For the record, I am not saying anything negative about Goode or the CP, I am just using what I have to analyze to determine the current state of the CP and Goode campaign.

  11. Green Party success

    Your headline misses the real new here.

    That a major polling company in July of the election year even included the Green Party in a national poll is amazing great news.

  12. JD

    The Greens seem to be recovering from the loss of Nader. While I dont agree with her, Jill Stein is very intelligent and would be a capable president. She really did a great job getting matching funds.

  13. bruuno

    “Poorly” is a little harsh, at least for Johnson. If he gets 3% the LP should be thrilled.

  14. Reed E

    Hell, if he gets 1% I would be thrilled. 1,000,000 votes would be historic

  15. JD

    R.D., there are two varieties of matching funds. Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and Buddy Roemer each are entitled to at least $100,000 of government funding because they got at least $5000 donated to them in 20 states. The government matches this money through voluntary donations from tax payers. The FEC pays this money out only if the candidates agree to some spending limits and such. These are called primary season matching funds and have to do with individual campaigns.

    Campaign matching funds are paid directly to parties after an election if their party receives 5% of the total votes cast for president. The only time this has happened was when the Reform Party got 8% of the vote in 1996. They received 12 million dollars for their 2000 campaign.

  16. JD

    I forgot to mention that if any party hits 5% this time they will be entitled to $20 million.

  17. Joe Buchman

    With Governor Johnson at 3 percent and Ron Paul (volunteered) at 2 percent (meaning if he was aided recall he’d be well over 4 percent), and given at least some of Ron Paul’s voters will vote for Gary Johnson — I’d say 5 percent on November 6th is at least possible. And if Governor Johnson could get into the debates, anything is possible.

  18. paulie

    I edited the value judgment “perform poorly” out of the headline. Hope that’s OK with the post author. The news here IMO is that all three were included in the poll, which is the first one like that I have seen this year to the best of my recollection.

  19. paulie

    With Governor Johnson at 3 percent and Ron Paul (volunteered) at 2 percent (meaning if he was aided recall he’d be well over 4 percent), and given at least some of Ron Paul’s voters will vote for Gary Johnson — I’d say 5 percent on November 6th is at least possible.

    I hate to dampen your enthusiasm, but the numbers generally go down considerably as election day approaches. Many of the Ron Paul supporters who will vote for Johnson are already reflected in Johnson’s numbers. How Ron Paul’s support shakes out remains to be seen. Anything is possible – but this poll is not pointing towards a 5% finish. There would have to be some game changing events to get to that level, much less…

    And if Governor Johnson could get into the debates, anything is possible.

    Sure, but getting to that point requires being included in multiple polls which are not listing him now and – a much bigger hurdle – averaging 15% in those polls in September. How do we go from 3 to 15 when the numbers tend to drop, not go up, as the election gets closer?

    I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it is highly unlikely and I have seen no plan to get from here to there.

  20. Austin Battenberg Post author

    I don’t mind the name change. I just remember Johnson doing better in earlier polls, but of course his numbers have dropped, and even though Gallup included them, they are all doing bad compared to the two front runners.

    Isn’t this the first national poll any of them have been included in? All the previous ones were state polls right?

  21. paulie

    I just remember Johnson doing better in earlier polls

    Goode and Stein were not included in those. That’s why I urged caution in interpreting those numbers at that time.

  22. paulie

    they are all doing bad compared to the two front runners.

    Well, yeah, they don’t have hundreds of millions of dollars, constant TV coverage, hundreds of sitting members of congress, a history of their party electing presidents, etc, etc.

    Isn’t this the first national poll any of them have been included in? All the previous ones were state polls right?

    I’m pretty sure Johnson did get included in some (but not many) past national polls. Not sure about the others. I haven’t seen any that included all three at the same time, state or national, before this.

  23. Richard Winger

    There is no general rule that minor party candidates drop as the election gets closer. Ross Perot was at 7% on October 1, 1992, but he got 19%. No poll ever showed Jesse Ventura above 21%, but he got 37% and won the election as the Reform Party nominee in 1998. I’m not sure, but I don’t think the 2010 polls showed Lisa Murkowski winning, but she did win.

    On vocabulary, general election public funding is not “matching”. There is no match for general public funding. The word “matching” only applies to primary season funds.

  24. JD

    You are right about Murkowski and Ventura. Ross Perot should have never dropped out. He did poll as high as 39% during the summer. He managed 19% because he was allowed in the debates. It is almost impossible to get into the debates now. John Anderson and Ross Perot are the last to do it.

  25. paulie

    Richard: Those are the exceptions that prove the rule, and I think they all are cases where the candidates were in the debates and did well in those.

    Murkowski as an incumbent had other advantages.

  26. Kleptocracy And You

    Nice that they were included. If you notice the headline link is ALL negative [Read the whole article on Gallup: Little Support for Third-Party Candidates in 2012 Election]. It reinforses the wasted vote tactic they use each cycle. These polling companies are owned and controlled by the kleptocracy. Both Obama and Romney are OWNED puppets. Never forget it !

    A Highly Successful Two term former Gov. with more Excutive office experience than Obama or Romney CERTAINLY deserves to be included in ANY real POTUS debate. But the current debate is a FRAUD setup to maintain the CORRUPT duopoly that is ruining all our futures! Gary Johnson need$ your $upport NOW.

    Watch the new Vid –

    GARY JOHNSON Be Libertarian With Me – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X3QRSIXgns

    Highly successful Two-term Governor, Gary Johnson, says “both parties are indistinguishable from one another. Both are keeping America broke. Both are keeping America at war. Both have trampled on the Constitution. And both are stooges to the same big money players that never change behind the scenes. It’s time to put our differences and our parties aside and come together as a nation for the good of all. We The People are ready to LIVE FREE.”

    Do you have a Sticker on your Vehicle ? What about a yard sign on display ? It’s time !
    Carpe Diem !

  27. Steven Wilson

    Just watch October,

    1. If the economy or jobs report is light

    2. If Johnson can market himself and what he did in New Mexico.

    I am not saying a Perot march is possible, but in Central Missouri, the economy is taking center stage in the discussions.

    I don’t think talking points are going to matter much if the job numbers don’t improve.

    My two cents.

  28. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    Just watch October,

    1. If the economy or jobs report is light

    2. If Johnson can market himself and what he did in New Mexico.

    If people are panicked about the economy, and are desperate for a change, then this election will be “too important to lose.”

    People won’t care about Johnson’s record in New Mexico if they feel he can’t win and that Obama has to go.

  29. Be Rational

    With early voting by mail in some states, absentee ballots, military ballots and the debate season all beginning before October it is already late in the 2012 campaign.

    Johnson needed to make his move by advertising on major network broadcast TV in the May/June window – after the convention and before the July 4 holiday.

    Now when it comes to votes we’re just competing for crumbs.

    Of course we can still work for party building and new members, and even that requires targeted broadcast TV to show that we’re serious.

  30. Richard Winger

    #37, any poll that only lists one minor party or independent presidential candidate is inherently faulty. The big breakthrough for Gallup is that 5 candidates are listed. Therefore, the support for each one is meaningful, whereas that poll you mention was not meaningful.

  31. JT

    Buchman: “With Governor Johnson at 3 percent and Ron Paul (volunteered) at 2 percent (meaning if he was aided recall he’d be well over 4 percent), and given at least some of Ron Paul’s voters will vote for Gary Johnson — I’d say 5 percent on November 6th is at least possible. And if Governor Johnson could get into the debates, anything is possible.”

    I hope that most Libertarians, particularly those who are part of the Johnson campaign team, actually believe that being included in the debates is something that would be nice to achieve but is also extremely unlikely. I’ll be disappointed with less than a million votes, but not with anything more than that.

  32. Green Party success

    The Green Party Convention is this week.

    It was reported Dr. Stein might ask Buddy Roemer to be her VP.

    Rosanne Barr is sure to attract attention.

    Former Congressman Ken Heckler of West Virginia will attend the Green Party convention also…

  33. paulie

    It was reported Dr. Stein might ask Buddy Roemer to be her VP.

    LOL. Where/when? I’m laying odds against that one.

  34. John Balzer

    I think we will see an historic change this cycle. There will be only three candidates on every state ballot. While the Gallop numbers seem a little off from other recent polls (Romney and Obama were running neck and neck at 43% for quite a while, and Ron Paul was nearly hitting 15% before he quit) I have to believe Ron Paul’s base will vote for Gary Johnson before Romney or Obama. We’ll know soon enough because the pivotal moment will be at the time of the GOP convention. At that time I think we’ll see the Libertarian strategy nominating executive rock star GJ paying off in the national polls.

  35. Trent Hill

    John–many will write in Ron Paul or simply not vote. That’s sad, but true. A few others will vote for Romney or Johnson.

  36. Dan Reale

    Forget what people think or may perceive.

    ANTICIPATE and ANSWER what people may think or perceieve.

    1) Vote splitting: “oh, you must have a time machine – can you come work for us as a consultant?” OR “The election happened already?” OR “The old ‘if I didn’t have an opponent I’d win the election argument’ – brilliant strategy that clearly improved our situation in the past. It’s clearly working wonders right now as we speak.”

    2) Who shows up and why. The fact is that third party voters would not have showed up without that other option. Everyone else is voting against something and not FOR something.

    3) Who is allegedly taking votes from whom?Republicans think other party candidate X takes from them, Democrats same thing. Can we get these two sides in the same room to talk about it, possibly debate it and see which one is actually right? How exactly does this logically occur?

    4) How is it that one “takes” votes from someone else? Last I knew, someone gave a vote to a candidate. Unless there’s someone putting a gun to the head of each voter, the taking votes thing doesn’t pan out. Votes are only given.

    5) Electoral welfare. That’s what it needs to be called for the purposes of prior elections. Just ask, “Don’t Democrats and Republicans need to earn votes, or is it that they’re simply entitled to the votes they get? What makes them so special that they don’t even need to make an argument beyond water being wet, apple pie being delicious and babies being cute? If they can;t even be bothered to make a sincere argument with at least a rudimentary level of detail, what can you possibly expect from them in office but something worse than we have now – just like it’s always been when you adopt this approach? Please do speak up if it appears that both major parties have no intention whatsoever of doing a day of actual work in their lives to earn your vote.”

    6) The influence argument. Rand Paul idiocy. It’s a smashing good time to convince water not to be wet. Go point that out. Consider handing out free rope for the public to piss up just to illustrate the stupidity.

    7) Make the exact same arguments the two party system does, but for you. “Sign this petition so the Republicans don’t split the vote and keep us out of office.” OR “We don’t want the Democrats to spoil this election.” Suggest a major party not be included in a poll because it doesn’t matter and just happens to be inconsequential.

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